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DFS Picks: Top Sleeper plays for each College Football Playoff semifinal game
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And then there were 4… The College Football Playoff semifinals begin Thursday night with Notre Dame taking on Penn State in the Orange Bowl. Then, on Friday, Ohio State tussles with Texas in the Cotton Bowl. As we approach kickoff, here are 4 player props to consider — 2 from each semifinal game.
Each of the 4 plays below can be found within the Sleeper app. Use our exclusive Sleeper promo code SOUTHXL to unlock a sign-up offer that scores you $55 in bonus entries when you play your first $5 contest.
Penn State vs. Notre Dame (Orange Bowl)
Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard lower than 162.5 passing yards
Leonard has only averaged 170 yards per game through the air all season. He averages 6.8 yards per attempt (92nd among qualified FBS passers) and only 7.5 air yards per pass. Leonard completes a high percentage of his passes, but Notre Dame typically has to nibble in the pass game. It hasn’t had a consistent presence on the outside this season to really test defenses down the field. Jordan Faison had a huge game against Indiana but then just 4 catches for 46 yards against Georgia. No one ate that day; Notre Dame threw it 24 times for only 90 yards against the Bulldogs. And that performance is surely playing a factor in this number being where it is. Leonard had 201 yards through the air in the first-round win over Indiana — 44 of which came on 1 throw late in the fourth quarter of a 20-3 game. Leonard only attempted 2 passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air and he didn’t complete either against the Bulldogs. That throw to Faison has been his only throw of 20-plus during this Playoff. He has thrown the ball at least 10 yards downfield only 11 times in 2 Playoff games (with 6 completions). That just isn’t part of Leonard’s game on a normal day, and I think Notre Dame is going to have some problems with Abdul Carter.
Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton higher than 61.5 rushing yards
Notre Dame is not an elite run-stopping team, but neither of its first 2 opponents in the College Football Playoff were equipped (or willing) to take advantage of that fact. Per Game on Paper, the Irish rank 90th nationally in rushing success rate allowed and 46th in EPA per run faced. The explosives aren’t there, but teams have plenty of down-to-down success running on what is a smaller Irish front. Notre Dame doesn’t get much push, it just plays the run soundly so those 4, 5, and 6-yard gains don’t become 20-plus. That becomes a problem against a Penn State team that wants to pound the ball with its 2 tailbacks. Notre Dame is in the 16th percentile in stuff rate and the 36th percentile in line yards per carry allowed. Penn State should be able to move, at least enough for either of its backs to have a strong game. Singleton has cleared 62 rushing yards in each of his last 5 games. I’m playing this one with confidence.
Texas vs. Ohio State (Cotton Bowl)
Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka higher than 61.5 receiving yards
Texas had a vaunted secondary entering the College Football Playoff. Even still, the Longhorns are No. 2 nationally in EPA per dropback faced and No. 3 in passing success rate allowed. Cornerback Jahdae Barron won the Jim Thorpe Award. Safeties Andrew Mukuba and Michael Taaffe have coverage grades above 89, per PFF. Barron is going to have his hands full with Jeremiah Smith, and the Longhorns’ No. 2 corner, Malik Muhammad, has been beatable this season. Muhammad is allowing 14.5 yards per reception and catches on 51.8% of his targets this season. Ohio State is certainly still going to try to get the football to its biggest receiving threat, but I think this is a big game waiting to happen for Egbuka. The Longhorn defense gave up 336 yards through the air to Cade Klubnik and then gave up 296 yards to Arizona State. Ohio State is going to test the secondary. Egbuka has at least 70 yards receiving in 3 of his last 4, with the lone exception being the Michigan game. He caught 5 balls for 81 yards in the CFP first round and then another 5 balls for 72 yards against Oregon. I think Ohio State is going to keep rolling on offense, so there will be plenty to go around for Smith and Egbuka each.
Texas RB Quintrevion Wisner higher than 20.5 receiving yards
When the Texas ground game short-circuited against Arizona State and Wisner was limited to 45 rushing yards on 18 carries, Texas involved him a bit more in the pass game and got 4 receptions for 40 yards out of him. Against an Ohio State front seven that is going to feverishly come after Quinn Ewers, I think Texas will try to keep Wisner involved in the game via quick passes and screens. That’ll help take some of the heat off Ewers, and it’ll help alleviate concerns if the Longhorns struggle once again to get the run going. I think there’s rout potential here, with Ohio State possessing the ability to jump on Texas early. Maybe the return of right tackle Cameron Williams fixes the run game, but Ohio State has a strong run defense over the course of the season (18th nationally in EPA per run) and that unit has stepped its play up throughout the Playoff (1.9 yards per carry allowed in 2 games).
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
