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The Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.
The records through Week 11:
- Derek: 61–48–1
- Ethan: 56–53–1
- Paul: 55–54–1
- Spenser: 51–58–1
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
No. 3 Texas (-13.5) at Arkansas
Spenser Davis: Texas is second in the SEC in passing efficiency. Arkansas is 15th in the SEC in pass defense efficiency. You need some volatility in order to cover 2 touchdowns on the road in this conference, but I think this matchup provides more than enough. PICK: Texas
Paul Harvey: Arkansas has that upset win over Tennessee — somehow — but the Razorbacks have been outscored 97-41 in their last 2 games against ranked opponents. Give me the Longhorns in a big win. PICK: Texas
Derek Peterson: Arkansas is coming off a bye week where it was presumably able to get Taylen Green and Ja’Quinden Jackson healthy. Texas is coming off a rout of Florida. I like Bobby Petrino and Travis Williams to have a gameplan devised that will give Texas fits. I don’t necessarily trust Arkansas, which has been incredibly volatile this season, but I might trust Texas even less. PICK: Arkansas
Ethan Stone: This is a great line, but I think Texas can win this one by 2 touchdowns. Arkansas has struggled since beating Tennessee when it comes to playing teams of consequence. PICK: Texas
Utah at No. 17 Colorado (-11.5)
SD: It’s hard to be anything other than incredibly impressed with Colorado this season. I keep waiting for the hangover game and it hasn’t happened yet. I don’t think we see one this weekend, either. Utah is abysmal with Isaac Wilson at quarterback and the Utes might be a bit deflated after losing to rival BYU in heartbreaking fashion last weekend. PICK: Colorado
PH: Utah has many issues, but the Utes are not a team prone to blowout losses under Kyle Whittingham. I don’t have the Utes in an upset here, but Colorado could be prime for a closer-than-expected wakeup call. PICK: Utah
DP: The Utes have lost 5 straight by dwindling margins. TCU beat the Utes by 6, then Houston won by 3, and then BYU won in Salt Lake City by just a single point last week. With season-ending injuries to Brant Kuithe and Brandon Rose —which will force Isaac Wilson back into the starting lineup — I question if Utah has anything left in the tank. Colorado, at home, will open with juice. PICK: Colorado
ES: I think BYU might have been the death knell for 2024 Utah, which has now lost 5 in a row. I like the Buffs by 14 in Boulder. PICK: Colorado
No. 20 Clemson (-10) at Pitt
SD: I still think Clemson is a bit overrated this late in the year. The Tigers did pick up a nice win over Virginia Tech on the road this past weekend, but I’ll back Pat Narduzzi’s Panthers team to turn in a bounce-back performance on Saturday and keep this one within single digits. PICK: Pitt
PH: Pitt’s home loss to Virginia isn’t entirely representative of how the Panthers have played for much of the season. I think they’ll have some sort of response to Clemson coming to town. And the fact it’s a double-digit spread on the road between two quality teams is just a non-starter. PICK: Pitt
DP: I did not buy into the Panthers at any point during the 7-0 start. Eli Holstein was putting the ball in danger, the Panthers just weren’t paying the price for it. Well, Holstein has exited each of the last 2 games early with a head injury and Pat Narduzzi told reporters on Thursday he had not yet practiced during the week. Nate Yarnell, who threw 2 picks in the loss to Virginia, has gotten the reps. Cade Klubnik might be able to find some explosives against the Pitt defense and the Clemson defense figured something out a week ago. The quarterback situation is the differentiator for me here. PICK: Clemson
ES: Pitt is, like Utah, very dead. Not like I’m particularly impressed with Clemson either, but they should be able to hold the Panthers to a low score. PICK: Clemson
No. 25 Tulane (-7) at Navy
SD: Navy’s offense may have been figured out. Blake Horvath has been woefully inefficient over Navy’s past 4 games. He’s averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt over that span and has 3 interceptions in those games too. That wouldn’t ordinarily be an issue – service academy quarterbacks aren’t often known for their passing prowess — but Navy’s offense looked special in the first half of the season because of what Horvath was doing as a passer. With that threat seemingly off the table, I think Tulane will be OK. PICK: Tulane
PH: Navy is not your traditional service academy offense this season. The Midshipmen are 66th nationally in time of possession while Army and Air Force are both top 10 teams in that category. And Tulane? The Green Wave is actually third in the country in TOP. This one could get ugly. PICK: Tulane
DP: Blake Horvath fumbled last week in Navy’s 28-7 win over South Florida, ensuring a third consecutive game with a turnover for the quarterback. Tulane has been absolutely rolling, but it’s worth pointing out that the Green Wave have feasted on the bottom of the American. Four of the last 5 wins have come against the bottom half of the AAC. The fifth, against North Texas, was a 7-point game. So long as Horvath doesn’t turn the ball over like candy, Navy should be able to keep this a one-score game. Both of these teams will run the ball and shorten the game. PICK: Navy
ES: Navy has not impressed in the slightest since their hot start to the season. Tulane, however, has remained consistent with losses only to Power conference programs. I think Navy will keep this entertaining in the first half, but Tulane should win comfortably. PICK: Tulane
No. 22 LSU (-4.5) at Florida
SD: Hamstring injuries are notoriously fickle. The idea that Lagway is going to give it a go and be 100% for this game doesn’t pass the smell test to me. Brian Kelly teams typically perform well coming off of a loss, too. I like the Tigers to bounce back here. PICK: LSU
PH: The status of DJ Lagway is significant. But even if he plays, it doesn’t appear he’ll be 100%. PICK: LSU
DP: I’m having a hard time putting the defensive performance from Florida last week out of my mind. The Gators were torched, and now they have to deal with Garrett Nussmeier. PICK: LSU
ES: This line just isn’t enough for me to pick Florida. I think the Gators keep it within a touchdown at the Swamp, but no lower. PICK: LSU
Nebraska at USC (-9)
SD: Both of these teams are throwing curveballs this week. Nebraska will have a new OC in Dana Holgorsen and USC will have a new starting quarterback in Jayden Maiava. I think Holgorsen would eventually be an upgrade for the Huskers, but I’m skeptical of what he can do for this offense on a short week. I expect USC to be well-prepared for Holgorsen’s offense as well. He and Lincoln Riley go way, way back. They’ve also coached against each other a few times back when Riley was at Oklahoma and Holgorsen was at West Virginia and Houston. Ultimately, I have more confidence in Maiava providing an immediate impact than I do in Holgorsen. PICK: USC
PH: There is so much change going on for both programs, and both teams are coming off a bye in Week 11. USC does play better at home, but I don’t think the Trojans will be that much better. Also, don’t count out Dana Holgorsen having just enough wrinkles to get the Huskers a few key scores. PICK: Nebraska
DP: I don’t believe a quarterback change suddenly fixes USC’s problems. The Trojans have blown fourth-quarter leads 5 times this season. Lincoln Riley has made questionable decisions. I didn’t understand the gameplan against Washington — throwing 50 times on a defense that ranks seventh nationally in passing success rate against — and now we get to see what the gunslinger, Jayden Maiava, can do. At UNLV last season, Maiava had 24 turnover-worthy plays in 14 appearances. Nebraska desperately wants that sixth win; it hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2016. I’m not sure if USC can match that same level of desperation. PICK: Nebraska
ES: USC has gone in the wrong direction, but their losses haven’t been blowouts. That tells me they’re still fighting despite an underwhelming record at this point in the season. But “still fighting” doesn’t translate to a 2-possession win after they’ve lost 4 of their last 5. PICK: Nebraska
No. 23 Missouri at No. 21 South Carolina (-13.5)
SD: I don’t think Drew Pyne got enough credit for what he did in the second half against a very strong Oklahoma defense last week. But with that being said, the Gamecocks are rolling right now and might have the best defensive line in the SEC. I’m not sure Mizzou has enough in the tank to go on the road and be competitive. PICK: South Carolina
PH: South Carolina is finally getting some respect after 3 straight impressive wins. Brady Cook’s status for Missouri is still unclear, and the Tigers have been outscored 75-10 in their first 2 SEC road games. PICK: South Carolina
DP: This Missouri team is cooked. PICK: South Carolina
ES: South Carolina is playing great football right now, and I think Williams-Brice has some sort of hex against visitors late in the season. History is kind of forcing my hand here. PICK: South Carolina
Arizona State at No. 16 Kansas State (-8)
SD: Arizona State has an elite rushing offense, which has been a big reason for its 7-2 start this season. But Kansas State is awesome against the run. Top 10 in the country in EPA per rush allowed, according to Game on Paper. Stylistically, I think this matchup favors K-State. I’ll back the home team and lay the points. Cam Skattebo not being completely healthy makes me weary of backing the Sun Devils, too. PICK: Kansas State
PH: Arizona State has been hot and cold away from Tempe, but I think these two teams are just about as evenly matched as you can be. K-State’s likely a bit more battle-tested, but this one will come down to the wire. PICK: Arizona State
DP: Arizona State is 7-2 against the spread this season. Kansas State is 3-6. The Sun Devils already have 3 outright wins as an underdog in their second season under Kenny Dillingham, and they’ve only lost one game this year when quarterback Sam Leavitt starts. Tailback Cam Skattebo looks like he’s in line to return to the field as well. I’m taking the Sun Devils. PICK: Arizona State
ES: Arizona State has struggled in 3 of their 4 away games this season, and Kansas State is the toughest of the group. We’ll be sweating this one out. PICK: Kansas State
No. 1 Oregon (-14) at Wisconsin
SD: I will continue to fade Wisconsin at every available opportunity. Getting to do so against Oregon is just a bonus. PICK: Oregon
PH: Wisconsin isn’t the laughingstock of the Big Ten. But the Badgers haven’t looked competitive against any top teams this season. I don’t believe Oregon is the team to change that. PICK: Oregon
DP: Wisconsin is 73rd nationally in rushing success rate allowed this season, per Game on Paper. The Badgers’ 3-game win streak came against the bottom of the barrel in the Big Ten; they’ve been handled by the top teams in the league. Oregon should have no issue running on this team. The Ducks have also had plenty to work on coming out of games recently. I think Dan Lanning will motivate them to put a strong performance on tape. PICK: Oregon
ES: Oregon is blowing teams out as of late, and I don’t think that trend stops this weekend. PICK: Oregon
No. 7 Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia (-10)
SD: Tennessee has a better defense than Ole Miss, and the Rebels had very little trouble shutting down this Georgia team last weekend. Maybe Carson Beck plays his best game of the year and the Bulldogs cover double-digits, but I’m willing to lose if that’s what it would take. I’m expecting Nico Iamaleava to play, but even if he doesn’t, I think the Vols have a chance to cover this. PICK: Tennessee
PH: Georgia has zero excuses for the situation the Bulldogs find themselves in, and it’s hard to envision the o-line suddenly looking competent against Tennessee’s defensive front. Picking this game outright is tricky because of the QB situation for the Vols, but it’s clear the Texas game is Georgia’s outlier, and not the norm, this season. PICK: Tennessee
DP: The Dawgs are 2-7 against the spread this season. As my colleagues have said, there’s no reason to think Tennessee’s defense can’t control things. I think this will be a lower-scoring game, and with Georgia’s Playoff hopes hanging in the balance, the Bulldogs could certainly win outright. But, just like last week, this spread is based on Georgia’s reputation and not Georgia’s current reality. PICK: Tennessee
ES: It’s true that Tennessee’s offense has been supremely bizarre in the first half this season, but things are starting to get better as the offensive line settles into place. The Vols defense could control this game, though. Tennessee has held better offenses than Georgia to less – a team has yet to score 20 on the Vols this season. And while Iamaleava may not be ready to go, Gaston Moore has been in Heupel’s system forever and is more than capable of playing field general. PICK: Tennessee
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
