Ad Disclosure
The Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. With this being Thanksgiving weekend, games get rolling early on Friday, so we’re getting an early jump on the action.
The records through Week 13:
- Derek: 68–61–1
- Ethan: 65–64–1
- Paul: 62–67–1
- Spenser: 58–71–1
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Mississippi State at Ole Miss (-25.5)
Spenser Davis: I expect Ole Miss to take out some of its frustrations on Mississippi State this weekend. The Rebels still have a reason to fight for style points, too, as they’re not completely eliminated from the Playoff picture. Mississippi State, on the other hand, has nothing to fight for. PICK: Ole Miss
Paul Harvey: You would have to go back to 2018 to find a game that was decided by more than 25.5 points – and that was an MSU win. The last time Ole Miss won by that margin came in 2008. I’ll side with history. PICK: Mississippi State
Derek Peterson: I’m not entirely sure how Ole Miss responds to the Florida loss. It was a disastrous way to lose a game in a spot where a loss killed their CFP hopes. Florida is certainly better than its record would indicate, and I don’t think that’s the case with Mississippi State. That being said, the Bulldogs have been better on offense with Michael Van Buren and Ole Miss has no running game to be able to control things. MSU is 5-2 against the spread in its last 7 and is 4-0 ATS this season when listed as more than a 20-point underdog. PICK: Mississippi State
Ethan Stone: Am I missing something here? This spread seems like too much. The Bulldogs have only lost by more than this spread once this season, not to mention it’s a rivalry game. MSU’s offense is good enough to keep them within 25. PICK: Mississippi State
Georgia Tech at Georgia (-19.5)
SD: Georgia just hasn’t been consistent this season. The Bulldogs have shown up for a few big games, but otherwise have been disappointing in 2024. I think this is too many points for a Georgia Tech team that has a good offense and a feisty defense. The Yellow Jackets had the athletes to beat Miami so I think they won’t be out-classed in that regard against the Bulldogs. PICK: Georgia Tech
PH: Georgia, surprisingly, had to squeak out an 8-point win a season ago, and that team was much better – and healthier – than this year’s. Also, I’ll go on record as predicting Brent Key gets Georgia Tech a win over Kirby Smart much sooner than expected. Is it this year? PICK: Georgia Tech
DP: Since the Clemson game, Georgia is 0-6 as a favorite of 10 points or more. I just don’t think the market has had a firm grasp of this team at all this season. But that’s understandable because of how inconsistent Georgia has looked. A half against Alabama. A game on the road against Texas. We’ve seen flashes. But they’ve been too few and far between. Georgia Tech has the tools to be competitive here. PICK: Georgia Tech
ES: Georgia Tech is talented enough to make this interesting, and the Bulldogs have been a little all over the place this year. But this is a must-win game, and I’m not ready to give up on Kirby Smart’s ability to get his team to lock in around this time of year. The Bulldogs did it against Tennessee, I think they’ll win big here too. PICK: Georgia
Michigan at Ohio State (-21)
SD: It’s time for Michigan to take its medicine. PICK: Ohio State
PH: We have gone from “Ryan Day better not lose The Game” to “Ryan Day better produce a bloodbath in The Game.” Forget the old saying of throwing out the records, the Buckeyes have looked like a title contender while the Wolverines should be grateful to be bowl-eligible. Ohio State better capitalize – BIG. PICK: Ohio State
DP: We have a consensus here, which worries me a little. But not so much so that I’m going to pick against my gut. Buckeyes roll. PICK: Ohio State
ES: Yeah this one isn’t going to be close. Ohio State has some frustrations to let out, and they get the underwhelming Wolverines at home. OSU, big. PICK: Ohio State
Tennessee (-10.5) at Vanderbilt
SD: I haven’t been a believer in Vandy for much of this season, although that stance is yet to really pay off. The Commodores are 8-3 ATS this season and have scored outright wins as underdogs vs. Virginia Tech, Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn. I think Vandy covers this line, too, and I wouldn’t rule out the Dores winning on the field. PICK: Vanderbilt
PH: I would rather be wrong riding with Vandy than kicking myself for not picking the Commodores in a close one at home. PICK: Vanderbilt
DP: We got the early number, which looked like a mistake when I saw it. Vanderbilt is 7-0 against the spread as an underdog of at least 7 points, and Tennessee will be playing in only its fourth true road game of the season. Diego Pavia being less than 100% adds a little bit of risk here, but Tennessee hasn’t looked good enough away from home to jump off the Vandy train now. PICK: Vanderbilt
ES: Those who really follow Tennessee football know how this one is going to go. It’s going to be a slugfest, and Tennessee is going to miss a backbreaking opportunity every 10 minutes or so. I don’t know who wins – I lean Tennessee – but it’s definitely going to be close. PICK: Vanderbilt
South Carolina at Clemson (-2.5)
SD: I frankly can not believe that Clemson is favored in this game. The Tigers have played 3 games this season against teams who are currently bowl-eligible. They haven’t averaged more than 5 yards per play against any of them. South Carolina’s defense is elite and the Gamecocks’ offense has turned the corner, too, with 4 consecutive games of 7+ yards per play. PICK: South Carolina
PH: Dabo Swinney has dominated this series over the past decade. I know people are riding with South Carolina down the stretch, but I think the Playoff chatter gets a rude conclusion in Clemson. PICK: Clemson
DP: Like Spenser, I think the wrong team is favored here. LaNorris Sellers has posted 3 of his 4 best QBRs as a starting quarterback in his last 4 games. During the win streak, he has 13 touchdown passes, 2 rushing touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. The South Carolina defense grounds opponents when they try to go to the air. In the end, I think the Gamecocks are more battle-tested. PICK: South Carolina
ES: South Carolina’s vibes are immaculate, but I think a lot of their magic is fueled by Williams-Brice Stadium. Even still, this line is begging for me to pick the Gamecocks. USC’s defense could genuinely suffocate the Tigers. PICK: South Carolina
Notre Dame (-7.5) at USC
SD: I was on Army last week and that was clearly a mistake. Notre Dame completely dominated in a blowout win. I was on USC last week, too, and I think I was lucky to get a win in that one. Still, USC has a knack for playing in close games this season and I don’t think Notre Dame has played anyone with USC’s level of athleticism in months. PICK: USC
PH: USC has played better at home, but I think Notre Dame is locked in at the right time. This should be a “win-and-in” scenario for the Fighting Irish and the Playoff. I think they’ll roll. PICK: Notre Dame
DP: I’m a little worried about USC falling into a big hole early. The Notre Dame defense is remarkable, and USC’s new quarterback has a tendency to take risks with the football. PICK: Notre Dame
ES: Notre Dame feels slightly different this season, maybe because they’ve already gotten their completely unjustifiable loss out of the way. USC is a dumpster fire at the moment, so I think the Irish could run away with this one. PICK: Notre Dame
Auburn at Alabama (-11.5)
SD: Auburn’s freshmen have been talking all kinds of smack this week. I’m not sure poking the bear is a wise strategy, particularly when the bear just got embarrassed the week before. Football-wise, this number looks about right to me. I’ll take the home team to cover, though. PICK: Alabama
PH: I commend anyone who has faith in Kalen DeBoer’s team after Week 13. But this one does come in Tuscaloosa. The Tide have won 4 straight at home by 18+ points and will probably still have a slight pulse for the CFP. PICK: Alabama
DP: I remember going through Kalen DeBoer’s first season at Washington and questioning what happened to his Huskies when they went on the road. It took a bit for that UW team to find a groove in road games. It has taken Alabama much longer to figure out how to play away from home this year. At home, the attention to detail has been better. I like the Tide in a bounceback spot. PICK: Alabama
ES: It’s the Iron Bowl. Throw all logic out the window. PICK: Auburn
Arizona State (-8.5) at Arizona
SD: Does Arizona have anything left to fight for? Arizona State sure does. I expect the Sun Devils to be locked in this weekend. PICK: Arizona State
PH: I am a big believer in Arizona State. Don’t be shocked if the Sun Devils are in the Playoff. But rivalry games are chaotic for a reason. I expect this one will come in slightly closer than expected. PICK: Arizona
DP: This is a matchup between one of the worst ATS teams in the country this season (Arizona) against one of the very best (Arizona State). Arizona has been a massive disappointment this season while ASU has surged. Sun Devils win big. PICK: Arizona State
ES: Feels like Arizona State is the consensus here, but the Big 12 is going to be in for an ugly finish. I don’t think it’ll be that easy for the Sun Devils after their massive win last week. PICK: Arizona
Washington at Oregon (-19)
SD: I’m sure Oregon would love nothing more than to crush Washington given how the last couple of seasons have gone. Since this is in Eugene, I’ll take the Ducks even though their last couple of games have been something less than inspiring. PICK: Oregon
PH: Washington’s home-road splits are… something. I know the Ducks are already cemented in Indy, but I think the fact Dan Lanning is winless against the Huskies will provide some motivation here. PICK: Oregon
DP: In 5 games played away from Husky Stadium, UW is 0-5 with an average of 15.2 points scored per game. In the 4 true road games UW has played, they have been a full yard per play worse on offense than in home games and almost 2 yards per play worse on defense. The Huskies don’t stop the run, don’t convert on third down, and don’t capitalize in the red zone. Oregon is the better team, Oregon is the home team, and Oregon is the angry team looking to end a 3-game losing streak. Oregon was running out of steam a bit prior to the bye, but I’m banking on that being a product of the schedule. They should be well-rested. PICK: Oregon
ES: Oregon has been playing like the best team in the country, but I’m going to continue with my chaos theme and take this one to be close. The Ducks aren’t in danger of losing here, but Washington isn’t just going to lie down. PICK: Washington
Texas (-6) at Texas A&M
SD: Kyle Field is an absolute monster. The issue, though, is that Texas A&M doesn’t have a great quarterback – which is a pre-requisite to beating this Texas team. Marcel Reed can run, but Texas has done a good job of containing mobile quarterbacks this season. Just ask Taylen Green and Michael Hawkins. I just don’t think Texas A&M has enough juice offensively yet to win a game like this. PICK: Texas
PH: Kyle Field is probably going to be an all-time vibe for this game. And I don’t like picking against that environment, especially with a road favorite, but I like the Longhorns here. It’s possible this pick is simply because I’d rather see Texas get a rematch vs. Georgia than watching A&M sacrificed in Atlanta. PICK: Texas
DP: Are we sure Texas is elite? Like, are we really sure? The fact we’re in Week 14 and we’re still asking if Texas is what people think it is says something about the schedule the Longhorns have played to this point, doesn’t it? I’d argue Georgia and Vanderbilt are the best teams Texas has faced. The Longhorns were hammered by the Dawgs and beat the ‘Dores by 3. And we saw the Texas offensive line really struggle to hold up against a Georgia pass rush that had previously been underwhelming. I don’t feel great about it, but I just don’t know what Texas is. The other factors favor A&M, too. The Aggies are in a must-win spot. Texas is not. Quinn Ewers might be limited by an ankle, which isn’t what UT needs against this A&M front. And let me be the latest to mention this game will be played at Kyle Field. PICK: Texas A&M
ES: This is Texas’s toughest home game of the season, and all the pressure is on. Kyle Field is going to be rocking, and Texas A&M is fighting for their Playoff lives – I think it will have an enormous impact on the Longhorns. The Aggies also have the best rushing offense this Texas defense has seen. PICK: Texas A&M
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
