The Saturday Down South staff is back to give picks for the 10 biggest games of the week in college football. We’ll be picking against the spread all season long and keeping track of progress as we go.
The records through Week 4:
- Paul: 21-18-1
- Derek: 19–20–1
- Ethan: 18-21-1
- Spenser: 13–26–1
Let’s get to it.
(Editor’s note: All odds are via DraftKings. Point spreads used for this piece were taken earlier in the week and might not necessarily reflect current odds.)
Virginia Tech at No. 7 Miami (-19.5)
Spenser Davis: Miami looks unbeatable to start the year while Virginia Tech has already lost a couple of very winnable games. I think Miami wins pretty comfortably, but I also think the Hokies are undervalued at this point. I’ll hold my nose and take the points. PICK: Virginia Tech
Paul Harvey: Miami is firing on all cylinders and I expect Cam Ward to deliver a comfortable win here. But Virginia Tech hasn’t been blown out this season with the Hokies competitive in every game they’ve played. I can see a late score keeping this one under a 3-touchdown difference. PICK: Virginia Tech
Derek Peterson: I liked this game better earlier in the week, when the number wasn’t pushing 20. When Miami has the football, I don’t think Virginia Tech will put up much resistance. The Hokies’ defense was supposed to take a step, thus making it an ACC contender, and that hasn’t happened. The offense hasn’t been good, with quarterback Kyron Drones ranking 84th in total QBR and 89th in EPA among qualified FBS passers. Miami has been bulldozing teams, but I just wonder if we get a game where the Hurricanes start to feel themselves a little too much and let some of the noise in. No one expects VaTech to win, it’s a short week, maybe something weird happens. Twenty in a Friday night ACC opener is just too much for me. PICK: Virginia Tech
Ethan Stone: Miami really showed me something at South Florida. The Bulls are a really solid G5 team this season, and the Hurricanes made them look silly at their own place. Virginia Tech has done nothing to inspire confidence after some rumblings preseason that they could be a dark horse candidate in the ACC. That appears to be… incorrect. I definitely think the Hurricanes can win big here. PICK: Miami
No. 20 Oklahoma State at No. 23 Kansas State (-5)
SD: On a down-to-down basis, Kansas State played a close game with BYU last week. On the scoreboard, it ended up as a 29-point blowout loss for the Wildcats. I think that result creates a buying opportunity on K-State. PICK: Kansas State
PH: I was high on both of these teams in their Week 4 matchups, and both came out of the week with a loss. Kansas State looked particularly brutal, but that game did come on the road. This one probably comes down to a field goal either way, so that makes the final call easier. PICK: Oklahoma State
DP: Oklahoma State stole a game against Arkansas it should not have won. The Cowboys were close to getting rolled in their own house by a Utah team with a backup, true freshman quarterback. There appears to be some discord with the offense right now, given OSU’s inability to generate any kind of run game. The issues that led to Kansas State’s loss are more easily fixable. I like the Wildcats – who are 18-8 ATS as a home favorite under Chris Klieman – to make a statement of sorts that they’re still in the Big 12 title race. PICK: Kansas State
ES: Last week was such a strange loss for Kansas State. The Cougars put up 126 less total yards (just 241 on the day) and won by 29 points. The Wildcats just could not stop turning the ball over, and Oklahoma State has forced 8 turnovers this season. The Cowboys have the points with this line too. PICK: Oklahoma State
Kentucky at No. 6 Ole Miss (-17.5)
SD: Kentucky has the best defense (by far) that Ole Miss has seen so far this season. But the Rebels are prolific enough on that end that it may not matter. And on the other side, I just don’t think Kentucky can move the ball – even if Ole Miss’ defensive quality is still questionable. PICK: Ole Miss
PH: This line feels like a gift after the way Kentucky played Georgia down to the wire. I still don’t know what that final score truly means for either team, but I know how I feel about Ole Miss at home. PICK: Ole Miss
DP: Kentucky wanted to play a ball control game against Georgia and Carson Beck didn’t make enough plays to take control of the matchup. I don’t think Jaxson Dart will have an issue against Kentucky’s secondary. The Wildcats’ front is good, but Dart is on a heater to start the season and Kentucky doesn’t have an offense that can cover this number. PICK: Ole Miss
ES: Ole Miss is going to destroy Kentucky on Saturday. I don’t think the Rebels offense is going to stall like Georgia did considering it’s one of the best units in the country, and I see the Wildcats defense getting exposed here. PICK: Ole Miss
No. 21 Oklahoma (-2) at Auburn
SD: I think Auburn’s offense is undervalued at this point because of its turnover woes. There’s a chance that will continue on Saturday against the Sooners but I’d bet on the Tigers to be more ball-secure this week. On the other side, you’ve got an Oklahoma team that is going on the road in the SEC for the first time with an offense that is feeling some heat from its head coach. Michael Hawkins looked decent against Tennessee, but that result was never really in doubt – and he’s still a true freshman. I think the wrong team is favored here. PICK: Auburn
PH: Can Auburn hang onto the football? The Tigers are 2nd-to-last in the country with 8 interceptions and are tied for dead last with a -10 turnover margin. So, no, Auburn cannot hang onto the ball, and that’s a problem against an OU team that is tied for 2nd nationally with a +7 turnover margin. The 2 points, even playing in Jordan-Hare, feels like a typo. PICK: Oklahoma
DP: I do not like this spot at all for Oklahoma. The Sooners are coming off a loss at home that may have done some damage to the psyche. The defense played well, but the offense fell apart. Oklahoma’s head coach went into his early-week presser breathing a bit of fire in the general direction of his OC, the offense is turning to a true freshman quarterback, one of the more intimidating road environments awaits, and the injury situation is dire. PICK: Auburn
ES: Oklahoma couldn’t move the ball against Tennessee (can anyone?), but Michael Hawkins was able to play well when Jackson Arnold was sent to the bench. Auburn’s defense is, uh, not Tennessee’s. As Paul pointed out, the Sooners should force plenty of turnovers, too. I see the Sooners running away with this one. PICK: Oklahoma
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Wisconsin at No. 13 USC (-15.5)
SD: This pick is pretty simple to me: I’m going to continue fading Wisconsin at every available opportunity. This team is outside the top 90 in schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play. The Badgers were bad before Tyler Van Dyke went down and they’re worse now. I like USC coming off a loss, too. PICK: USC
PH: USC delivered a worthy performance on the road vs. Michigan, even if the Trojans didn’t pull out the win in the end like I expected. It goes to show how perilous college football can be, even if you play the majority of snaps the right way on defense. However, this pick isn’t so much about believing in Wisconsin as it is about some of the injuries USC sustained in Week 4. PICK: Wisconsin
DP: I think USC showed some stuff on the road in the Big House against an… unfriendly whistle. And like Spenser, I’m super out on Wisconsin. PICK: USC
ES: The fact USC gets Wisconsin at home here is huge for me. It’s the Badgers’ first away game of the season and their first game of Big Ten play, all the way in Los Angeles. I’m higher on USC than a lot of people and think they could be in for a bounce-back game after a tough loss at the Big House. PICK: USC
No. 15 Louisville at No. 16 Notre Dame (-6.5)
SD: The Cardinals have a strong defensive front and the Fighting Irish continue to be banged up along the offensive line. This will be the toughest test of the year for Louisville so far, but I like what I’ve seen from Jeff Brohm’s team to-date. Louisville gave Notre Dame all sorts of trouble last season, too. PICK: Louisville
PH: Louisville has plenty to play for but has not been challenged yet. Notre Dame had what I will call a minor challenge in Week 1 but also lost to NIU and looked rocky at times against Miami (the Ohio version). With this line creeping up toward a touchdown, I’ll take Jeff Brohm keeping this one close if not pulling off an outright win in Week 5. PICK: Louisville
DP: I’ve been wrong every time I’ve gone against Notre Dame this season. Even though I want to again here, I’m rolling with the Irish. They can’t afford another loss if they want to make the CFP, especially not after NIU immediately lost to Buffalo. I think the defense will remember last year’s loss to the Cards. And it was concerning to see how much Louisville struggled to run the ball on Georgia Tech last week. PICK: Notre Dame
ES: Louisville is the toughest team Notre Dame has faced yet this year, and I have been thoroughly unimpressed with the Irish so far. Still, ND gets home field and they’re the more physical team. More than anything, I expect this one to be close, which makes me lean Louisville to cover. I’m not very confident in either pick here, to be honest. PICK: Louisville
No. 3 Ohio State (-23.5) at Michigan State
SD: Ohio State has been a wrecking ball this season and I don’t think this Michigan State team is very good at all. I’m taking the Buckeyes until they give me a reason to doubt them. PICK: Ohio State
PH: Aidan Chiles might have one of the best deep balls in the Big Ten. Unfortunately, he also leads the Big Ten in interceptions. This game shapes up as a time for Ohio State’s defense to feast, and the ground game of the Buckeyes is also starting to heat up. PICK: Ohio State
DP: Ohio State’s offense has every edge against Michigan State’s defense. Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles leads the FBS in turnover-worthy plays (per PFF). All it takes is 1 first-quarter turnover for this to snowball on the home team. PICK: Ohio State
ES: Ohio State’s defensive line is going to make this very, very difficult for Michigan State. I just don’t see how the Spartans are supposed to move the ball in this one. PICK: Ohio State
No. 2 Georgia (-2) at No. 4 Alabama
SD: Georgia has looked pretty suspect offensively for basically this entire season, save for the second half of the Clemson game. Maybe the Bulldogs snap out of it this week, but I think getting Alabama as a home dog is a gift. PICK: Alabama
PH: Anyone putting major weight into Georgia’s performance vs. Kentucky, or Alabama’s performance vs. South Florida, is looking at the wrong things. But this game comes in Tuscaloosa, and I can’t ride with a road favorite even if Nick Saban is gone. Let’s also not forget that Kalen DeBoer can dial up a game plan with the best of them. This is going to be a good one, but I’m counting on DeBoer to dial up some fun for the Tide. PICK: Alabama
DP: Does Georgia’s coverage force Jalen Milroe to live more in the intermediate parts of the field, where Alabama’s offense goes to die? Does Mykel Williams play? Can Georgia finally get something out of its lagging run game? I’ve flip-flopped on this game every time I’ve written about it this week, so my pick might change by the time we reach kickoff, but I’m going with Alabama at home. I’ve seen enough of Kalen DeBoer in tight games to know what he’s capable of, and I think I trust Milroe more to produce explosives. PICK: Alabama
ES: Georgia has lost just twice across the past 3 seasons, both of which came at the hands of Alabama. Georgia also looked… not good against Kentucky their last outing. The Tide are at home and coming off a bye week. Everything tells me to take Alabama to win this one, but I just can’t do it. I still think Georgia is the best team in the country, and I can’t go against Kirby Smart (also) out of a bye week after that crapper of a performance against UK. Georgia struggles in games they shouldn’t before turning around to dismantle their next opponent every year, folks! PICK: Georgia
No. 19 Illinois at No. 9 Penn State (-18)
SD: Penn State’s offense is absolutely elite and its defense will be better than anything Illinois has seen to this point in the year (sorry, Nebraska). I think Illinois is a good team, but probably not a top-20 team in terms of pure talent. PICK: Penn State
PH: One of the most surprising stats of the season for me is that Luke Altmyer has made it through 4 games (and 10 touchdowns) without throwing an interception. (He threw 10 in 9 games for Illinois last season.) Penn State will try to change that, but I’m more impressed that there hasn’t been anything too fluky about the undefeated start of the Illini. I expect the Nittany Lions to vanquish some 9OT demons from the last time these teams faced off in Happy Valley, but 18 points is a bit rich. PICK: Illinois
DP: We laughed at the Bowling Green result and then the Falcons did the same thing to Texas A&M. Maybe that’s just a good football team. I think Illinois is a little lucky to be unbeaten, and Penn State has an offense to match the defense now. At home in a night atmosphere, I think Penn State has better athletes and can overwhelm Illinois a little bit. PICK: Penn State
ES: Eighteen points? Nah, man. Hilarious disrespect thrown here at the Illini, who have improved at QB and went into a raucous environment to beat a vastly improved Nebraska squad just last week. I also didn’t forget about Bowling Green, Penn State. The Illini might mess around and win this one. PICK: Illinois
Arizona at No. 10 Utah (-11)
SD: Will Cam Rising play? Clearly it’s anyone’s guess and we won’t know for sure until Utah sends out its offense for the first time on Saturday. That’s not a situation I particularly like being in. I think Oklahoma State and Arizona are relatively equal from a talent perspective, but the Wildcats have a lot more firepower offensively. I’ll take the points here given the amount of uncertainty with Utah. PICK: Arizona
PH: Utah looks like the class of the Big 12 through 4 weeks and Arizona looks like a young team finding its way. Getting this game in Salt Lake City only solidifies that it sets up perfectly for Kyle Whittingham’s squad. PICK: Utah
DP: Utah got the doors blown off by Arizona last season in Tucson. The Wildcats were up 28-0 just 7 seconds into the second quarter of that game and Utah, without Cam Rising, never recovered. Bryson Barnes threw 2 picks that day and Jonah Coleman ran over a bruised defense. Rice-Eccles Stadium will remember that result. Arizona is worse. Utah is better, even if Rising doesn’t play. A sturdy defensive effort and the ground game lead Utah to a multi-score win. PICK: Utah
ES: I’ve thought all year that Utah is the best team in the Big 12, and that sentiment hasn’t wavered. Utah will win this game, I’m confident. But the Wildcats are coming out of a bye week and I still think they could be a strong team in this league. Also, Utah just doesn’t blow teams out. Eleven points is a little too much for me here. PICK: Arizona
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
