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Friedlander: Familiar circumstances have Florida State on Week 0 upset alert against Ga. Tech
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College football upsets come in two distinct categories.
There are those bolts from the blue that come seemingly out of nowhere. Then there are some you can see coming a mile away.
Or in the case of the first game on the 2024 ACC schedule, about 4,000 miles away.
Florida State might be the preseason pick to win the conference championship and a solid 13-point favorite against Georgia Tech, according to ESPNBet sportsbook, when the teams kick things off in Dublin, Ireland on Aug. 24.
But there is precedent to suggest that the Seminoles might be headed for a Week 0 surprise.
And not just against the spread.
If the dynamics heading into the 2024 season-opener sound familiar, they should. They’re almost a carbon copy of those that preceded last year’s marquee Labor Day matchup between Clemson and Duke.
The Tigers were also the defending ACC champions, favored by 13.5 points. However, there were questions surrounding them because of some significant personnel losses. The Blue Devils, on the other hand, returned most of their key pieces – including an accomplished quarterback – from a team that finished the previous year with momentum.
Duke took advantage of that edge in experience to pull off a 28-7 upset.
Experience won’t be as much of a factor for Georgia Tech and Florida State. Even though the Seminoles have plenty of holes to fill with only 4 starters returning on each side of the ball, Mike Novell has retooled his lineup with the addition of 15 transfers.
Many of them, including Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, have played at least 3 seasons of college football.
Just not together. In a new system. For a high-energy coach whose intensity could take some getting used to.
There’s no guarantee all the newcomers will buy in. And even if they eventually do, how long it will take for it all to come together.
“Ultimately that is the challenge in college football,” Norvell said last week at the ACC’s annual Football Kickoff media event in Charlotte. “I think we have a group of like-minded individuals. They love to work. They’re willing to embrace the challenge. It’s that cohesiveness that has me excited about what this team’s potential can be. We just now get to go live it out as we start off with this upcoming season.”
If there’s ever a time to catch FSU this season, it’s early before they all get onto the same page. And Georgia Tech gets the first crack. In an environment that can be as distracting to a football player as a cell phone in the hands of a driver behind the wheel in rush hour traffic.
This isn’t some fun little field trip for the Yellow Jackets to experience the culture of another country. It’s an opportunity to showcase their program and school to the nation a week before everyone else starts their season and take another step upward on the ladder back to relevance.
Tech began that journey in coach Brent Key’s first full season a year ago by posting its first winning record since 2018 and has been itching to build on the momentum since its Gasparilla Bowl victory over UCF last December.
“I’m excited,” quarterback Haynes King said. “We’ve been talking about this since the bowl game. I’ve been ready for a long time. Ready to get back at it. Building off that, building off last season is a big step. Now our expectations and standards have risen. People always say you either get better or you’re getting worse, you can’t stay the same.”
King has a high bar to clear to improve on a 2023 performance in which he led the ACC with 27 touchdown passes. But he’s got enough firepower around him to do it with the return of 1,000-yard rusher Jamal Haynes and top receiver Eric Singleton Jr., the runner-up to NC State’s KC Concepcion for conference Freshman of the Year.
The chemistry they’ve already developed can’t be discounted. Especially against a defense still developing their own with a group of new starters playing together for the first time.
Just ask Clemson.
It’s still a safe bet that the deeper, more talented Seminoles will finish the season with a better record. And they’ll be good enough to win the conference and earn the Playoff appearance they were denied by the selection committee last year.
But in this one game, under these circumstances, you have to like the Yellow Jackets’ chances.
If they do beat the odds and pull off the upset it won’t be a bolt from the blue, although there will be plenty of people who react as if it is. It will be a result they should have seen coming from 4,000 miles away.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
