Peterson: My Top 25 entering Week 6 of the 2024 season
We have reached Week 6 of the 2024 college football season. Last weekend’s slate was amazing, with massive collisions, upsets, and good games in every window. A lot has changed. Here’s how I ranked my top 25 teams in the country for the ballot I submitted for Saturday Down South’s official top 25.
1. Alabama (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
Last week: 6
That version of Jalen Milroe that we saw on Saturday night in Alabama’s win over Georgia? That’s the best player in college football. He was the best athlete on a field filled with athletic marvels.
2. Texas (5-0, 1-0 SEC)
Last week: 1
The Longhorns are No. 3 in ESPN’s game control metric and No. 7 in net success rate, per Game on Paper. They haven’t been tested since the Michigan game, but a big one awaits on Oct. 12.
3. Tennessee (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
Last week: 2
Tennessee leads the country in Game on Paper’s adjusted EPA per play metric. This is one of the best defenses in the country, and I’m not sure everyone is aware of that yet. Oct. 19 can’t get here fast enough.
4. Ohio State (4-0, 1-0 B1G)
Last week: 4
Ohio State cruised through the nonconference and then handled Michigan State on the road. The Buckeyes had the first month of the season off. The next month will provide some important data points.
5. Miami (5-0, 1-0 ACC)
Last week: 5
Miami had exactly the game I was expecting against Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes were sloppy and a bit careless. They fell down early and had to battle back. But, led by Cam Ward, they did battle back and escaped with their unbeaten record intact. Win your clunkers.
6. Georgia (3-1, 0-1 SEC)
Last week: 3
Georgia got outclassed early, but even after the Bulldogs made their run, I came away with questions about the offense’s path forward. Georgia ranks 31st in adjusted EPA per play. Every team I have above Georgia ranks in the top 8 in that specific metric.
7. Penn State (4-0, 1-0 B1G)
Last week: 9
The Nittany Lions gave up an 11-play, 75-yard touchdown drive on the first possession of the game and then completely locked in. For the rest of the game, Illinois averaged 3 yards per play. This was more like a 34-7 game, but Penn State’s own wastefulness in scoring possessions made the final score look more favorable to Illinois.
8. Oregon (4-0, 1-0 B1G)
Last week: 11
Oregon outgained UCLA 431-172 on the road. The Ducks were dominant, forcing 2 turnovers and holding UCLA to 1-for-10 on third down. After a slow start, the Ducks are finding their groove.
9. Missouri (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
Last week: 10
Missouri was on a bye week in Week 5. We’ll see if the close-game blessings continue in Columbia.
10. Clemson (3-1, 2-0 ACC)
Last week: 13
The first game is weird. And I’m not sure what to do with it, because it was a bad look for Clemson. The Tiger team we’ve seen in the weeks since has been completely different. Cade Klubnik has produced 16 touchdowns in his last 3 games.
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11. USC (3-1, 1-1 Big Ten)
Last week: 14
The Trojans trailed Wisconsin at the half at home, 21-10. They got booed off the field in their Big Ten home opener. They outscored the Badgers 28-0 in the second half. The Trojans have turned into a really strong second-half team this season, which points to the rebuilt coaching staff being more of a strength than it has been in the past.
12. Ole Miss (4-1, 0-1 SEC)
Last week: 7
I’m choosing not to panic with Ole Miss. Maybe that’s the wrong takeaway from Week 5. We’ll see. The Rebels are still fourth in SP+ and lead the country in net success rate, per Game on Paper. Through its first 4 games, Ole Miss averaged 76 plays a game. Against Kentucky, the Rebels ran 56 plays. They weren’t clinical enough because they hadn’t needed to be to this point in the year. I think Kentucky has caught teams off-guard a bit with its willingness to sit on the ball on offense. Ole Miss missed a field goal and fumbled inside the Kentucky 20, that was the difference in a game where it significantly outgained the Wildcats on a per-play basis (6.3 to 4.5). Kentucky’s defense is good, but I don’t know how repeatable that win is.
13. Notre Dame (4-1)
Last week: 16
Notre Dame has 2 really good wins, 1 very bad loss, and a super suspect pass game. This Irish team has talent but a clear ceiling.
14. Utah (4-1, 1-1 Big 12)
Last week: 8
Utah lost at home to Arizona, 23-10, without starting quarterback Cameron Rising. True freshman backup Isaac Wilson tossed 2 picks and completed only 20 of his 40 passes. Maybe Utah thought it could skate by without Rising until its bye week. That clearly wasn’t the case.
15. Louisville (3-1, 1-0 ACC)
Last week: 12
Louisville had a positive net success rate in a 7-point road loss at Notre Dame. I’m not sure I agree with the claims that Louisville is a fraud, but I suppose we’ll see. The Cards had 3 turnovers and 3 turnovers on downs in 13 possessions against the Irish. That kind of offensive showing won’t ever win games on the road.
16. LSU (4-1, 1-0 SEC)
Last week: 18
The Tigers have another elite backfield. Perhaps not one with a Heisman ceiling, but still elite. Garrett Nussmeier threw for 409 yards and 2 scores. Caden Durham ran for 128 yards on 7 carries. Nussmeier, by the way, ranks second nationally in EPA.
17. Iowa State (4-0, 1-0 Big 12)
Last week: 19
The Cyclones manhandled Houston in Week 5. The Cougars don’t exactly have a world-beating offense, but Iowa State has also allowed just 3 touchdowns all season and that’s pretty good.
18. Indiana (5-0, 2-0 B1G)
Last week: 20
Soon, we might have to have a very real conversation about Indiana. The Hoosiers have yet to play anyone threatening (108th in SOS), but they’re fifth in ESPN’s game control metric and have the third-best net success rate in college football. When good teams play bad competition, all you want to see is domination. Indiana has dominated the early part of its schedule. There is a significant chance Indiana is sitting at 8-1 or better when it hosts Michigan on Nov. 9.
19. Michigan (4-1, 2-0 B1G)
Last week: 22
I do not buy Michigan whatsoever. There’s no pass game to speak of, and they needed more help from the officials to outlast Minnesota at home. The Wolverines rank 59th in adjusted net EPA per play.
20. Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1 SEC)
Last week: 21
Oklahoma found a way at Auburn. The game was a remarkable roller coaster ride for Sooner fans. Cautious optimism abounded at kickoff, and that turned to full-blown excitement went Michael Hawkins Jr. ran for a 48-yard score to take a 7-0 lead. The next 2.5 quarters eroded that excitement as the Sooners fell down 21-10. Then Oklahoma introduced the SEC to Sooner Magic. It’s a thing.
21. Kansas State (4-1, 1-1 Big 12)
Last week: unranked
What a statement. The Wildcats ran for 300, threw for 259, forced 3 turnovers, and just thoroughly outclassed Oklahoma State in Manhattan. If not for 6 minutes in the BYU game, we might be talking about K-State as the runaway favorites in the Big 12.
22. Nebraska (4-1, 1-1 B1G)
Last week: 23
Nebraska needed a bit too long to get control of Purdue. Kicking issues led to a scoreless draw at the half in West Lafayette before Dylan Raiola and John Bullock helped Big Red separate in the second half.
23. BYU (5-0, 2-0 Big 12)
Last week: 24
The Cougars had a 28-7 lead on Baylor well into the second quarter and let the home team just slowly claw back into the game. After a Baylor touchdown with 10 to play in the fourth, the BYU lead was just 6 points. BYU threw 2 interceptions and missed a field goal in the second half. A win is a win, but the Cougars need to be more clinical in killing off games to keep this hot start to the season rolling.
24. Boise State (3-1)
Last week: unranked
Boise State has the best running back in America and the Broncos aren’t afraid to lean on him. Tailback Ashton Jeanty is on pace to run for 2,535 yards and 39 touchdowns in just the regular season. He has 845 yards and 13 scores in 3.5 games. We’re talking about challenging Barry Sanders’ all-time rushing records here.
25. Texas A&M (4-1, 2-0 SEC)
Last week: unranked
The Aggies have rebounded well from the season-opening loss to Notre Dame. They hammered their next 2 opponents, put up a clunker against a Bowling Green team that might not be as bad as everyone thinks, and then won a hotly-contested rivalry game at a neutral site with a really strong defensive effort.
Dropped out
Oklahoma State (15), Illinois (17), Arkansas (25)
Right on the cut line
Illinois, Navy, Boston College
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