3 matchups that will define Florida vs. Texas A&M
No. 4 Florida’s visit to College Station and No. 21 Texas A&M Saturday (Noon, ESPN) is one of two matchups between ranked teams in the SEC this weekend. When the COVID-shortened, SEC-only schedules were released in August, this game was one analysts and fans alike circled, and it’s easy to see why.
It’s Florida’s first road game in College Station since an epic game won by the Gators in 2012, which was the first Texas A&M start for some guy named Johnny Manziel. It’s also a battle between 3rd-year head coaches brought in to take proud programs back to the forefront of the national conversation.
For Florida, Saturday offers a chance to vanquish nearly a decade of bad memories against Jimbo Fisher, the A&M head coach who tormented Florida and its fan base for 8 years while the head coach at Florida State. For Texas A&M, it’s a chance to show that the Aggies, who are 1-8 against Top 10 teams in the Fisher era, can win big games and are a program ascending, despite increasingly noisy doubts outside the A&M football facility.
The Aggies’ slow start, which saw them squeak by lowly Vanderbilt before being outclassed at Alabama, has put a slight damper on the game from a national perspective. But it’s also added a touch of desperation. It’s time for Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies to stop making excuses and start winning football games against elite competition. A win Saturday would go a long way in silencing doubters.
Meanwhile, the Gators’ offense has been sensational through 2 games, but Florida has a long way to go defensively to compete for championships. Can Florida put together a complete team performance for the first time in 2020 Saturday? They may need to in order to leave College Station undefeated.
Here are 3 matchups that will define Florida and Texas A&M.
1. A struggling Kellen Mond vs. a struggling Florida secondary
Everyone keeps waiting for the Kellen Mond leap.
His numbers this season are just fine, by the way: 42-72 (58.3%), 507 yards (7.0 yards per attempt), 4 touchdowns and only 1 interception. Those numbers are basically right at his career averages (57.8%, 7 ypa).
But that’s kind of the problem, isn’t it? Mond has frustrated his demanding head coach — not to mention every NFL scout and his fan base — by essentially being the same player for 3 seasons under Fisher. Now a 4th-year starter, he’s simply not made the leap you’d expect from any SEC starting quarterback, and he’s made nowhere close to the jump in production expected when the Aggies hired Fisher. By reputation a quarterback whisperer, Fisher had coaxed huge production leaps from returning quarterbacks, from JaMarcus Russell at LSU to Christian Ponder, EJ Manual and Jameis Winston at Florida State.
Mond hasn’t made that jump. Instead, he remains plagued by a tendency to make big mistakes, such as 2 fumbles against Vanderbilt that kept the game within reach for the Commodores or his pick-6 last weekend at Alabama.
The good news for Mond? He’s facing a Florida secondary that also has struggled. Ole Miss torched Florida for 400 yards in the air and South Carolina added 212 more, despite several drops. The Gators did manage to keep things in front of them against South Carolina, limiting Collin Hill and the Gamecocks to just 4.5 yards per attempt.
But Mond historically is very capable if you can’t force mistakes, and the Gators have not made many big plays this season. In fact, despite facing 2 teams playing catch-up all afternoon, Florida’s secondary has zero interceptions in 80 throws (Florida’s lone interception came from a defensive lineman). The Gators rank 56th nationally in defensive pass efficiency and 50th in yards allowed per pass attempt. Those numbers would be adequate if 130 teams were playing; they are woeful considering only 74 have played college football thus far this fall.
The thinking here is the reason the Vegas number is only 7 is that the really smart people in Sin City simply don’t trust the Florida defense to slow the Aggies.
It’s doubtful that without Jhamon Ausbon, who opted out, that A&M has the type of playmakers at wide receiver that Ole Miss had in Elijah Moore or South Carolina had in Shi Smith. And there are signs the Gators’ secondary will improve, including the sensational play of sophomore Jaydon Hill, who has played 52 coverage snaps at boundary corner and has yet to allow a yard in coverage.
But I still give a slight edge to Texas A&M in this matchup.
The Aggies’ offensive line is big and physical and excellent in protection, ranking 3rd nationally in sack percentage against, the best number in the SEC this season. They should protect the quarterback well. Mond is a prideful senior who has played well in big games in the past (see last year’s valiant efforts against Clemson and Alabama). If he does that Saturday, we’ll have a heck of a ballgame.
2. A&M’s run game vs. Florida’s interior defensive line
Florida has played the first 2 games without Kyree Campbell, the bruising nose tackle who has started 23 games in his career and was quietly one of the program’s most improved players in 2019. Dan Mullen isn’t talking about opt-outs and he isn’t talking about injuries, rendering Campbell’s status unknown, but what’s clear is that he’s sorely missed by Florida’s interior run defense. Florida has had trouble getting inside leverage and fitting interior run gaps, especially when it moves the versatile Zachary Carter away from the 3-technique inside and out to the edge.
South Carolina pounded Florida inside, gaining over 80% of its 117 yards rushing against the Gators between the tackles. Ole Miss was also productive inside, with over 100 of its 170 yards between the tackles.
The Texas A&M run game is quite good, at least statistically, and that’s impressive given the fact that an early game against Alabama traditionally skews a team’s rushing numbers in a negative direction. On the young season, the Aggies average 5.2 yards per rush, good for a tie for 2nd in the SEC with Florida. The Gators are 28th in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.5), a solid enough overall number. But that’s mostly because you can’t run outside on Florida (29% success rate this season, 2nd-best in the SEC).
The key to the game may very well be how Carter, Tedarrell Slaton, Marlon Dunlap and promising true freshman Gervon Dexter prevent a push up front, and whether a Florida linebacker other than Ventrell Miller plays a big game and helps fit run gaps.
Fisher will want to use the ground game to control the clock and play keep away from the explosive Gators offense. If the Aggies have balance, an upset may be brewing at Kyle Field.
3. Kyle Trask against a shorthanded A&M secondary
This will be a homecoming for Kyle Trask, who grew up in Manvel, Texas, and is named for Kyle Field, where he fell in love with college football attending games with his family on so many Saturdays down South.
He’ll face a Mike Elko defense that is big and athletic, but it isn’t deep, especially in the secondary.
The Aggies lost 3 defensive starters to opt-outs, including key secondary pieces in corner Elijah Blades and nickel Clifford Chattman. Blades, who was one of the fastest players in the SEC, has been a particularly painful loss, as he was A&M’s best vertical cover guy.
That has allowed teams to shy away from corner Myles Jones, a bona fide NFL talent, and attack the younger, inexperienced pieces in that Aggies secondary.
There is fast and then there is Jaylen Waddle ⚡️ @AlabamaFTBL @D1__JW
(via @CBSSports) pic.twitter.com/50D5iqnSW4
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) October 3, 2020
Here, with Jones lined up on DeVonta Smith, Devin Morris (1 career start) gets lost on a Jaylen Waddle head fake and safety Demani Richardson (a sophomore) is late to help.
Here, on 3rd-and-8, Jones is on Waddle. Mac Jones recognizes this, and sees John Metchie III lined up 1-on-1 with freshman Jaylon Jones on the boundary. The result is an Alabama touchdown.
Hello, Mac Jones. Hello, John Metchie. Hello, end zone. pic.twitter.com/RN1aVjYHXY
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 3, 2020
Florida doesn’t have a Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith at receiver, but Trevon Grimes is plenty fast and will play on Sundays and Kadarius Toney has been an absolute nightmare for opponents in 2020.
And that’s before you get to “tight end” Kyle Pitts, the best player in the SEC who has a cool 6 — yes 6 — touchdowns through the season’s first 2 games.
Couple A&M’s secondary depth and youth issues with a pass rush that has been anemic — only JUCO product Michael Clemons has multiple pressures — and you get a recipe for another big Saturday for Florida’s marvelous Kyles.
If you like offense, this should be a great game to watch. Could play like a Big-12 type game with whoever has the ball last wins.
It will be up to Mond. If he plays up to his abilities A&M may have a real chance at the upset.
If Florida’s defense plays up to its talent level and finally executes and plays with consistency and effort, Texas A&M has no chance. They do if the UF defense plays like it did vs Ole Miss and SC.
Great article, Neil. Some additional points:
1. Texas A&M’s 5.2 yards per carry is a bit deceiving. It’s 6.8 YPC against Vandy and 3.83 YPC against Alabama.
2. Xzavier Henderson played 20 snaps against South Carolina. He’s fully capable of taking the top off a defense at some point. Don’t know when it’s going to happen, but it’s going to at some point.
3. As you have alluded to in previous articles, Toney is uncoverable this year out of his first cut. He should continue to be open on the digs and slants.
The only thing I am really worried about is Kyle Trask going home and playing in front of family and friends on the field he was named after. He’s performed in several high pressure situations since coming onto the field in Lexington last year, but this is different.
I find it interesting that not a lot has been reported about our O-Line. They have played really well both in run and pass formation. They are a big reason for our offensive success so far. I thought it would be a topic in this article for sure. Also, if our line holds against that nasty D-Line in Jacksonville we may have a really good shot at taking down the Dawgs.
We won’t be beating UGA unless Grantham figures out how to stop them on 3rd down. Stetson Bennett seems to be cool/calm under pressure and looked great on 3rd down last week. That gave me nightmares about our game with them because the past two years have been painful watching them convert 3rd down easily.
Yea I almost feel like third and Granthem is something that we have subconsciously spun into reality. We have heard It so much from UGA faithful. Maybe it’s true. I dono. But if he doesn’t figure it out and it keeps us from winning a championship he will be sent packing. There is no where to hide when your offense is as efficient as ours. Saying that, I do believe he will figure out. I think we are gonna see a solid defensive effort for 4 quarter this week.
I sure hope so. The consistent 3rd down conversions against our defense the first two weeks have me very concerned. Hopefully we will start to right this ship in College Station on Saturday.
Thanks Nash! Agree on both the first two points. Young Hendo is going to be special. Trask may have some jitters/emotions but he’s such a calm kid generally I think he will be fine.
Mark it down. Defense makes a stand this week and holds a Jimbo Fisher led offense to 17 or less. And I am not a betting man but if I was I could make a lot of money on that +7. I think we role if Trask plays well. This week we are going to play for 4 quarters on defense. Mullen will see to it. As Nash said, my only worry is if Trask gets nervous or gun shy then we could have a tight one, if not, we win big. Gators 51, Aggies 17. Could be a statement win.
While I don’t agree with your take that the Gators defense is gonna flip a switch and hold the Aggies to 17 or less, I seriously can’t believe the line for this game is -7. I’m thinking a final score along the lines of 45-28 for the Gators. I’m not a betting man either so obviously I could be totally wrong but this line and the o/u just seem wrong
I maybe could see it if the 12th man was involved but 7 is tight. I do not think they have shown enough to get that much respect but they may prove me wrong. I consider myself a pretty reasonable and level headed fan but maybe I am wearing gator glasses.
SDS should adopt a free season long ATS pickem for all sec games. For bragging rights only.
I think assuming Florida will perform as well as Alabama is generous (not really you but the comment before). I don’t think Florida has really shown enough, especially on defense against their first 2 opponents, to get the respect of a top 5 ranking. But at this point in the season it’s a lot of projecting on small sample sizes and hopeful thinking. I think the overall variance in games and upsets will continue to be high for another week or two as things continue to settle in, and bookmakers know better than to over-inflate or deflate expectations for a team based on a limited snapshot. A touchdown favorite on the road seems about right, even without a crowd – especially against Jekyll and Hyde A&M.
You sound very confident. Care to wager on that 7 points? This will be a statement game for Florida’s defense. If the O-line holds Trask will have a day and we will role…big…51-14
Gators by 37 eh g8rBits? Put me down for Franklin on aTm plus 36
Lol you were right about the offensive line – just the wrong team. Key matchup here was definitely A&M’s offensive line vs the Florida front 7. I did make a little money on the outright win, but didn’t trust myself enough to put serious money down on the upset. :(
I hope you didn’t lose too much
*Marks it down*
Hmmmm…it was definitely a ‘statement win’ for someone!
Mond could come in a little bit confident and he knows the heat is on because of his poor performance. My guess is that Campbell will be in the lineup and will bring stability. Slaton is too out of shape to maintain a high level of stopping the middle after the 1st quarter. He was dragging last week big time. Dunlap seems to be out of shape as well so no help there after 3-4 series.
I’m betting that Grantham had the talk about next level defense with the safeties and corners. It is time to step up and clamp down. Davis is solid and Torrance, while young, is very aggressive and should play more. Dean either needs a breakout game to get confidence or settle for special teams role where he can have some impact for us instead of our opponent. Cox and Moon should have really big games against TaM. Their offensive tackles are to slow for that much speed and length.
Offensively, Trask is going to be Trask and be dependable placing the ball in the right spot at the right time. I really like our offensive line. Heggie has really been dominant at center. Last week he moved people at will and executed several stretch blocks on the SC linebackers that sprung good runs. The rest are as solid as we can ask for.
Our receivers are well, in my opinion the best potential we have had in years. Get the ball to Copeland and Whittemore, to prepare for LSU and the pups. Keep the grind with Peirce but please more Malik up the middle. He is to quick for the linebackers for them to recover and Heggie will open holes consistently.
My hopes are that in this the 3rd game our defense will find the right fit and the players that want to play a specific role/position. Move dexter out wide to the weak side on passing downs and let him go and see if that gives Moon some motivation to stop taking plays off.
Man I am hoping Campbell and Stewart are in and I also hope they can knock the rust off quick. Getting a good push in the middle would be nice. Someone two swallow double teams so Cox and Carter or Dexter can work. I hope to see Granthem dial up more pressures as well.
Anyone else think it was extremely fitting Trey Dean changed his number to 0? Zero plays made.
If possible he should wear 00
The Florida defense has been literally playing itself into shape. First, they weren’t on campus around Savage as much as they ordinarily would have been. On top of that, the starters have been playing 60+ snaps, so they’re getting winded. The 2s up front have only been playing around 20-30 snaps. Second, Mullen made a conscious decision to limit tackling and live scrimmaging. The reason was to avoid preseason injuries, probably because of depth concerns.
The defenses of South Carolina and Texas A&M have played the fewest snaps in the SEC, at 118 and 122 respectively. Among their opponents, South Carolina played Florida and Texas A&M played Alabama. In stark contrast, the defenses of Alabama and Florida have played among the most snaps in the SEC to date, at 150 (11th) and 161 (13th) respectively. Everyone’s knocking Florida’s defense, but what about Alabama’s? Is it “bad” too?
No.
Alabama and Florida are the two highest scoring teams in the SEC right now, at 45 and 45.5 points per game respectively. I calculated points scored per third down played as a rough measure of how fast different teams were scoring. Here are the points scored per offensive third down played for each SEC team, with the number of offensive third downs played in parenthesis:
4.68 (9.5) — Florida
3.75 (12) — Alabama
2.96 (13) — Mississippi
2.75 (12) — Tennessee
2.59 (14.5) — LSU
1.88 (17) — Georgia
1.80 (15) — Kentucky
1.76 (16.5) — Miss State
1.59 (16) — South Carolina
1.52 (13.5) — Texas A&M
1.40 (12.5) — Auburn
1.11 (14) — Arkansas
1.00 (15.5) — Missouri
0.56 (17) — Vanderbilt
Incidentally, if you’re wondering about where LSU would rank in this list through its two games in 2019, the answer is 3.75 points per offensive third down played and 12.5 third downs played. Their per game scoring average was 47 points (their first two opponents were Georgia Southern and Texas).
This data suggests that Florida and Alabama (and Ole Miss) are scoring so fast that they are putting their defenses back out on the field faster, forcing their defenses to play more snaps. Which could be an issue in 2020 with perhaps less opportunity to condition during summer camp. And certainly less opportunity to tackle and scrimmage, at least in Florida’s case.
Now about “third and Grantham.” Florida ranks 10th out of 14 SEC teams in combined total percentage of third and fourth down conversions allowed at 52.6%. That’s pretty poor. But you know who’s tied with Florida at 10th and 52.6% third down conversions allowed? And even the exact same number of combined total 3rd and 4th downs converted at 20 of 38?
Alabama.
Alabama has allowed less average yardage per game at 386 yards than Florida at 471 yards, but the two teams are pretty close in average yards allowed per play at 5.15 and 5.85 yards respectively.
I could list a litany of mistakes, missed tackles and just plain bad judgment I’ve seen from Florida’s defense over the first two games. If you’re a Florida fan, I’m sure you could too. But maybe, just maybe, looking at these numbers and comparisons, they’re not doing so bad considering the weird summer camp this year.
Man your comments have so much benefit-of-the-doubt and best case scenario for Florida, and WORST case scenario/worst intentions from their opponents. You must get disappointed a lot.
Statistics these days are like political “facts” – you can find support in the numbers validate almost any reasonable theory, all depending on how you slice/dice and present the data.
Like Florida, other teams are also “playing themselves into shape” right now. You are basing your assumptions on a very small, unequal data set. You seem to have a great grasp of Florida and a hopeful outlook for how much they can progress, but doesn’t seem like you have watched the actual tape from A&M’s two games to give a real objective take on that side of the ball. I only watched part of the Vanderbilt game before the Bama game but it seemed like A&M did just about everything they could to lose that game. And the final score of the Bama game may look like it was completely 1-sided, but A&M confirmed that Bama’s defense isn’t up to the level it has been in years past right now. Are they bad? No. But are they elite right now? Also no. Is Florida’s defense even close? Unlikely. Both the offensive and defensive lines are going to need to step up big for Florida this game.
Interesting that you used no stats or documentation to support your opinion but the person you responded to presented a ton to support his.
It’s even more interesting that the entire point of my post was that you can easily manipulate specific data points to prove almost any reasonable point, and yet you ironically ask for data to support the position. Another major point was that drawing broad conclusions with extremely limited, unequal sample sizes is a dangerous way of establishing your assumptions.
I think we can all see why…
Really, both the offensive/defensive line matchups should be key matchups in this game. A&M has a line full of grown men on both sides of the ball, I think it’ll be a pretty big difference from Ole Miss and SC. Florida should have the advantage when it comes to skill players. If they can contain #0 from A&M (Alabama couldnt) and make Kellen Mond try to pass downfield, Gators should be able to stay at least a score ahead. But I think the score in this game is frustratingly low…27-20 Florida
Just curious. Did those full grown men play against Vanderbilt?
Yup
Not with nearly as much success as they had against Alabama and Florida. But again, your inability to watch (or comprehend?) the tape of your opponents before trying to give “insightful” commentary on the game shows clearly. A&M’s O-Line made Florida’s D-Line look like high school kids, and your predictions look about as accurate as my sister-in-law’s…
I was wayyyy off about Florida being more talented than A&M obviously. There was definitely a difference between the lines of these two teams, but even the skill positions were advantage A&M. Pretty great back-and-forth game though from an SEC observer though, both offenses looked able to compete – but both defenses looked horrible.
Bend over F, it’s coming
No
Lol