5 reasons Florida will beat LSU and win the SEC East
GAINESVILLE, Fla. – If you’re an LSU fan, or a Tennessee fan, it’s easy to be confident that Florida will lose Saturday in Baton Rouge.
UF enters the game missing their top three tacklers Jarrad Davis (56), Alex Anzalone (53) and Marcus Maye (50) at the worst possible time, going up against an LSU offense with a healthier Leonard Fournette, who will be spelled by Derrius Guice, a ball-carrier averaging 8.7 yards per carry. On top of that, a team that has lost two-of-three road contests has to play what was supposed to be a home game on the road in a hostile environment because of the opponent’s demands.
It’s no surprise to see the Gators are a 13.5-point Vegas underdog, but here’s five reasons they’ll win straight up and clinch the SEC East title:
1. Austin Appleby’s almost done it before: Florida’s best first half this season was when it scored 24 points against Kentucky. It’s most impressive half of play, however, came at Tennessee when Austin Appleby led the Gators to a 21-3 lead at the break in Konxville.
In the first half against Tennessee, Appleby was 10-of-16 for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns. Antonio Callaway’s season-high 134 receiving yards came in those two quarters of catching passes from Appleby.
There’s nothing quite like a big passing play to quiet the Death Valley crowd. The Gators have a better chance of hitting a deep ball with the stronger Appleby at quarterback over the injured Luke Del Rio.
2. The Gators are more focused: The Tigers sure are feeling confident this week. Edge rusher Arden Key said that with so many injuries, the Gators are obviously scared to come to Baton Rouge, something he knows will make the bulletin boards in Gainesville.
One of Florida’s biggest talkers, Teez Tabor, had the opportunity to respond Tuesday. Instead of giving the Tigers any bulletin board material, he pretty much shrugged it off, saying if the Gators are so scared, why is the game being played in Tiger Stadium?
“Not really. I don’t think we’re scared,” Tabor said. “It says something about somebody who is going in someone else’s neighborhood when you’re supposed to come to our neighborhood and fight. I don’t see how that is scared at all. You’re going into the enemy territory. … But we might be, though, if that’s what they think, I guess.”
If you’re wondering why Tabor used “neighborhood” for LSU’s stadium, it’s because he’s listening to his coach.
“You’re getting tested here, all right? You’re getting a chance to go into somebody else’s neighborhood and go take something they want,” McElwain said at Monday’s press conference when discussing the team’s motivation.
The Gators are locked in and on message while LSU seems to be more interested in trash talk.
3. Florida’s receiving corps is the best it has been all season: LSU is obviously well aware of Callaway. But if the Tigers think they can shut down Florida’s passing game by focusing on the sophomore playmaker, they’ll likely be in trouble.
For weeks the Gators have been searching for someone else to step up in the passing game, especially the vertical passing game, and take coverage away from Callaway, who had 3 catches for 100 yards against the Tigers last year in Death Valley. In Week 12, they finally have other options.
Former blue-chip recruit Tyrie Cleveland earned his first start in the Missouri game and made an immediate impact (3 catches, 79 yards, TD). He hurt his ankle against Arkansas, but played last week against South Carolina and was practicing with the first-team offense on Tuesday. With a frame of 6-foot-2, 196 pounds and 4.38 40-yard dash speed, Cleveland is someone LSU has to cover when he’s on the field.
The most positive recent development for Florida could be senior wideout Ahmad Fulwood, who made two big receptions against South Carolina. On a 30-yard jump ball pass, Fulwood took an aggressive approach knowing he had the matchup won purely by his size (6-foot-4, 208 pounds).
It’s something the coaches have been asking him to do since the day he stepped on campus. If he’s finally adopted that approach, he could add to his highlight tape in Baton Rouge.
4. DBU, Callaway can spot the offense two scores: While it’s easy to write off Florida’s chances because of a lack of offense, not all of the team’s points have to come with Appleby and the offense on the field. The Gators have ways of scoring when LSU is throwing or punting the ball.
The Tigers will likely rely on Fournette and Guice against a Florida defense missing its top two linebackers, but they’ll have Danny Etling throw at times to avoid going completely one dimensional. Any time the ball is in the air, it’s a chance for future NFL cornerbacks Tabor and Quincy Wilson to score. The pair have combined for seven interceptions, including a pair of pick-sixes.
Thanks to Hurricane Matthew, Tabor and Wilson have had an extra week to watch LSU film and get familiar with the passing routes. Watch for a jumped route to turn into a Gators touchdown.
As LSU certainly remembers, Callaway is a threat in the punt return game, as he took one back for 72 yards a year ago in Death Valley as a freshman. He has yet to notch a punt return for a touchdown this season, but almost had one a week ago against South Carolina if not for a penalty. This week he gets a score with no flags.
5. No one’s giving the Gators a chance: The last time Jim McElwain’s squad entered a game in which no one gave his team a shot at winning was against Alabama in the 2015 SEC Championship Game. The Gators entered the game struggling to score and move the ball through the air, failing to even register a touchdown against FSU, and the Crimson Tide had a dominant defense and future Heisman winner on offense. It was supposed to be ugly.
Florida actually held its own in the early going and trailed only 12-7 at the half, eventually falling 29-15 when the clock showed all zeros. The 2016 Tigers are rightfully the favored team. On paper, they should be able to run at will on a banged-up Florida defense. And LSU’s pass-rushers might be asked to pay rent for the amount of time they spend in UF’s backfield.
But LSU is not quite last year’s national champions, and UF won’t be starting Treon Harris at quarterback. Sure, a million holes can be poked in a transitive property prediction (especially one based on a Florida loss). But the current mix of external disrespect and internal confidence is just right for the Gators to play up to the competition, overachieve and pull off the upset.
Andrew Olsen. Put your money where your mouth is and bet on Florida winning this game or LSU not covering the spread. I know where my money is going. LSU!
The fact that you keep saying Florida lost a home game because of LSU demands if straight out lies. Florida lost a home game because they decided to screw around the entire week of Hurricane Matthew and could have scheduled a game IN GAINESVILLE FLORIDA on saturday, sunday, or monday. Quit trying to make LSU the bad guy when clearly florida did this to themselves.
Not to mention. You say Florida’s best half came against Tenn and Kentucky….They have not seen a defense like this all year…LSU has allowed only 10 touchdowns ALL SEASON. And dont start calling UF DBU…that is just laughable when you look at who Appleby will be going up against on saturday.
Not laughable when there is 3 top 2 round dbs on this team. Lsu has great dbs too but to say its laughable is retarded.
your grammar is…well, you must be special
Im sorry i work for a living every once in awhile i get a break and i get on here to sh!t on you Vols fans. Aint nobody got time for grammer.
Arguing about the hurricane still is ludicrous. The LSU fans don’t know and don’t want to know.
But the fact that LSU still says they are DBU is funny. I guess the guys in the league and then what happens on draft day does not enter into their thinking.
Yeah, we definitely will see what happens on draft day.
I’d love to see UF try to hold Bama to 10 points or less.
LSU has 10 dbs on NFL rosters and Florida has 9 so what exactly are we missing about the guys in the league? I guess facts don’t enter into your thinking.
Tyrann, Peterson, Eric Reid, Mo Claiborne, Breaux (technically), Ron Brooks, Jalen Collins, Jalen Mills, Rashard Robinson
Tharold Simon. All collecting checks weekly, so what were you saying?
what I can’t figure out in all of this is if LSU fans actually believe this narrative they’ve created or they’re too stupid or too self absorbed and too selfish to think for themselves…. Here”s what LSU’s response should have been to an uncertain and potentially dangerous event that impacted 2-5 million people in the state of florida including players and coaches. Here is what the LSU AD’s response should have been: “Having been through this before we understand the uncertainty and potentially dangerous situation that comes with a hurricane and we will work with Florida to make up this game in the future. In fact, we both play out of conference opponents on November 19 and that’s the date we will target to make this game up.” END OF STORY…. I have friends and family that are STILL cleaning up from that hurricane that was 100 miles east of gainesville and I am SICK of these LSU fans talking about what we SHOULD have done to play a football game when half the state was bracing for the impact of what potentially could have been a catastrophic storm. There were more important things at stake that weekend than a football game so STFU… And don’t even try to respond with your ridiculous notions about flying the team in and out or playing at a neutral site.. JUST STOP… The entire eastern seaboard was about to take a direct hit from a CAT 4 storm and millions of people were coming inland to places like G-ville and all LSU could talk about was a GD football game… STFU ALREADY!! You made yourselves look bad, nobody had to do it for you…
My good sir, us LSU fans feel for you in terms of experiencing hurricanes. However, our malice is not towards the team nor you the fans. It’s squarely on two people: Jeremy Foley and Greg Sankey. Foley for concocting this scheme that keeps them at the top of the East and Sankey for letting him enacting this plan and not using his power as league commissioner to say you will play this game on Thursday, Sunday, Monday, any day of the week and therefore not losing any games or any of the teams losing revenue from a lost home game. Well Foley’s plan made both teams lose a home game. Florida loses they’re Presbyterian game while LSU loses next year’s home game against Florida. If this game were in Florida, us LSU fans would be griping much much more because we would’ve been ending the season with 3 straight away games in a 12 day period because of Texas A&M’s tradition of thanksgiving football. We are very tame right now. This worked out the best for both teams but Florida got the better bargain.
Some Florida fans are still looking for a safe place.
I think we found our “safe space” LSUMC….. Tiger Stadium or better known as “Swamp West”
We should hand out coloring books and Play-doh to LSU fans that have experienced this terrible traumatic event in the state of Louisiana. This must be what recurring hemorrhoids feels like? Do us all a favor and buy some cream. Move on, let it go…life continues.
Reason #6 – It’d be the biggest possible “F* You” to Tennessee.
Still Salty I See.
That’s reason enough, lol. Not to mention that if FL wins, Keno98 is gone, he has already lost the first part of a bet thanks to the head to head match up against SC, so that means if TN doesn’t make it, he will be gone!
You are so sad. You must have been one of the kids at Sandusky’s summer camp to be this butt hurt.
You are the one that is sad, you ran your mouth all year long, and now you try and back out of it, you are a coward and a liar, not to mention a dipsh*t.
You wait for me or some other Tennessee fan to comment so you can talk some sh*t, and I’m the sad one. You are a punk. I haven’t lost a d*mn thing. Tennessee hasn’t lost the East. That was the bet.
Allow me to refresh your meth addled memory: per May 22, 2016
* Bill Lets Party Belichick6 months ago That’s funny Keno I thought TN was back on top to stay, backtracking now are we? Thanks for missing the point completely, but I’ll play. You think TN will when the east, since they are “drastically” better and you claim SC will be “basement dwellers” because of 20 years ago. I tell you what, if the gamecocks are not bowl eligible next year and the Vols win the East I will never comment on here again, are you willing to do the same, meaning if the gamecocks are bowl eligible and the Vols drop the east, keno quits with his noise?
Your response:
* keno98 6 months ago Chances are that at least 1 of the 4 worst teams in the SEC (SC, Vandy, UK, and Mizzou) makes a bowl game because the division is so weak. If you are thumping your chest at being the best of that group then have at it. But I will bet that if Tennessee doesn’t win the East that I will not comment anymore. The only reason that you add the caviat that USCe will make a bowl, is because you know you will lose if you bet solely on Tennessee winning the East. If you aren’t just all talk then you will bet straight up on USCe beating Tenn, since Mushcamp is so dominant against the Vols and the cocks are at home. But I bet even you aren’t dumb enough to take that bet. As far as the original mention of the bet was one month prior when you were saying sc would finish last, I proposed that SC would be bowl eligible at 6 or 7 wins, and that I would bet on that straight up, you added the gm winning the east because you were upset I said they were a 3-4 loss team, which they are, so I said we make the bet two gold, you wouldn’t bet that do you added the sc vs tn head to head which you are now backing off of it, like the little b*tch you are.
My response:
Bill Lets Party Belichick 6 months ago @keno I will gladly take the bet.
*TN, Fold, so…
Bahahahaha. You think because you added that last sentence in yourself that its all of a sudden true. Like I said, you are a punk and the only bet was that IF USCe makes a bowl AND Tennessee wins the East. If Florida wins Saturday(or UT loses to Mizzou or Vandy), I’ll hold up my end of the bet. But the head-to-head was never part of the bet. And no amount of BS’ing you do now will make that true. I would feel sorry for you if you weren’t such a little punk.
Typical little b*tch response from the biggest lying sack of sh*t TN fan there is in the land, I copy and pasted your words and you try and deny it, In the coming weeks if you lose the second part of the bet you will be denying that you ever made the bet, because you are d*cksucking coward who is so pathetic that they can’t admit when they are wrong. You had already lost credibility on this site, this just confirms it. You are the biggest loser on here and I’m going to enjoy destroying you on every post and exposing your lies.
Like I said, you are a sad little boy, whose life revolves around this site, and talking sh*t behind a keyboard. You never had any credibility, not even from your own fans. I come on this site to read about my team and see whats going on around the SEC, but its little punks like you who just log-in to talk sh*t and bother people that are one of the few downsides to fan sites like this. But I can only imagine how sad your life is to have to make up things so that you can “claim an internet victory.” I’m done responding to your sorry a$$.
So you’re crying like a little b*tch because I exposed your lying a$$, it’s cool. You come on here talk massive amounts of sh*t, then run when you can’t back it up. I don’t need this site to valid my life, you do, that’s why you are desperately trying to lie about a proposal you made, to get remain here. You are so sad and pathetic, I shouldn’t laugh at you, but I can’t help it, maybe that makes me an a$$hole, but that’s ok by me, because I would just feel sorry for you if you weren’t such a lying d*uche.
* validate
Butt Hurt Bulldog…..ruff ruff ruff!
I literally laughed this entire article…. Everybody’s got a job to do though…
I want what you’re smoking.
Yea, I’m guessing you wouldn’t pass a piss test.
I think Fl.Will beat lsu
LSUs best win is.. Arkansas? I’m not sure where all the LSU confidence is coming from. They fired their head coach and could end up with 5 losses on the year. Anyone that thinks this game will be a blowout either way hasn’t watched either team very closely. 17-14 UF winning on Eddie’s scooter-kickin-robo-leg.
Yes, LSUs best win is..Arkansas..They drilled ’em. By about the same score that Arkansas.. DRILLED the gators!!!!!!!!!!!!
The confidence is coming from the fact that LSU went blow for blow with probably the best Bama squad since 2011 and they’ve blown out everyone else. Also due to the fact that Florida is even more injured than it was the weekend of October 8th.
Plus the offense is stable and the defense is one of the best in the nation.
You lost 10-0 at home..what should worry you is 125 yards of offense
Why would we worry about that? We don’t play Bama again, or anything close to that defense.
@MichalGlazener “Eddi’s scooter-kickin-robo-leg”…funny stuff!