A closer look at Florida's slow recruiting start, and why it's complicated
Dan Mullen hasn’t even taken the podium at his first SEC Media Days as Florida’s head coach, let alone coached his first game, and already there is noise in the system in Gainesville.
Fans and writers alike are on edge about Florida’s sluggish start to the 2018-2019 recruiting cycle, with many already moving past “on edge” and into full-on “panic mode.” Rival fans have taken to calling Florida “3-Star U,” with one notable podcaster comparing the notoriously poor recruiter Jim McElwain favorably to the affable, engaging Mullen.
Mullen makes Mac look like Bear Bryant on the trail.
— Kev (@561_Kev) July 7, 2018
There were rumblings from as early as the spring, when Florida hosted several big names without securing commitments or future official visits. The rumblings became louder in late June, when longtime Mullen 4-star DE target Nathan Pickering opted to commit to the in-state Mississippi State Bulldogs instead of the Gators, despite a lengthy recruiting relationship with the Florida coaching staff.
The rumbles turned to roars last week, when a pair of consensus 4-stars long considered Florida leans — Jahleel Billingsley (Alabama) and DB Chris Steele (USC) — committed elsewhere. The Gators also lost former 4-star WR commit John Dunmore, the Hollywood (Fla.) Chaminade product, who committed to Penn State. Another 4-star WR, Mycah Pittman, appears set to buck his mother’s wishes and pick Oregon over Florida.
There’s no question that’s a tough few weeks for the Gators, who currently sit at No. 31 in the 247Sports Composite Team Rankings for 2019 (behind Duke!). But is it a cause for panic? And what exactly is behind Florida’s slow recruiting start?
Fan is short for “fanatic,” and reason and facts aren’t often considered when it’s easier to just pile on the panic bandwagon and criticize the new Florida coaching staff, who are tasked with rebuilding a program that for the second time in less than a decade has a broken culture to go along with personnel issues.
But even fanatics aren’t entitled to their own facts, and the facts of Florida recruiting are these.
First, it isn’t all doom-and-gloom.
Mullen signed the best transition class in Florida history last fall, rescuing a class ranked in the 20s with a host of signing day commitments, including coveted 4-star QB Emory Jones, who chose Florida over rival Florida State, and 4-star WR Jacob Copeland, who ended years of Gator recruiting futility in Pensacola by picking Florida over Alabama.
Mullen’s 2019 class, with 4 top 300 players currently committed, also rates comparably, at this point in the cycle (early July), to Gus Malzahn’s second class at Auburn (4 top 300 commits), Mark Richt’s second class at Miami (4 top 300 commits), and Willie Taggart’s second class at Florida State (5 top 300 commits). It is also twice as good, as of July 11, as Jim McElwain’s second class was at this point (2 top 300 commits), which seems to suggest that at the very least, Mullen isn’t making McElwain look like “Bear Bryant on the trail.” And while Mullen’s second class certainly behind Urban Meyer’s second class at Florida as of July (10 top 300 commits), it isn’t terribly behind Kirby Smart’s pace (6 top 300 commits), although it is entirely fair to suggest that Florida needs a quality Friday Night Lights event this July to bolster the class, stem the negative flow of publicity and build momentum for the fall.
Further, while the losses of players like Steele, Pittman and Dunmore seem permanent, Pickering and Billingsley are among the players who have openly indicated they’ll take recruiting visits, giving Florida at least a chance at recouping those losses. And even with Dunmore gone, there are a host of analysts projecting 4-star WR Elijah Higgins, a 6-2 221-pound NFL prototype, will commit to Florida before the end of the month.
Second, Mullen is also dealing with a host of structural challenges his rivals simply don’t face.
To begin with, he inherited a program that has had two 4-win seasons in four years, and hasn’t fielded an offense ranked in the top 50 nationally since most recruits were in elementary school. The Gators stitched together two 10-win seasons this decade, but did so on the shoulders of elite defenses, and even in the seasons when Will Muschamp recruited well, Florida’s classes tended to be unbalanced, with a high-number of blue chips (4- or 5-stars) on defense, not offense.
-- Power 5 assistant coach on Dan Mullen's recruiting ability
Florida’s roster contains 36 blue-chip recruits, only 3 of whom were consensus 5-star players. That’s more blue-chips than at SEC East rivals South Carolina (23) and Tennessee (34), but it’s well-behind Georgia (61) and FSU (56). Much of that is due to unbalanced classes under Muschamp and the general aloofness of McElwain, who deferred much of Florida’s recruiting process to associate head coach Randy Shannon. But some of it is about success on the field too, according to one longtime SEC assistant.
“Kirby inherited a 10-win roster at Georgia, and schematically, they didn’t want to reinvent much offensively, which people forget,” the SEC assistant told me. “That meant Kirby could go and target certain areas where he felt upgrades were critical, notably on the offensive line and on the defensive perimeter. But Smart also knew Richt already had a roster that was close. It’s why he waited on that job. Dan gets a 4-win culture and probably an 8-win roster. Those challenges are almost entirely different, and that’s before you discuss scheme.”
Another challenge Florida faces is consistent coaching turnover, which impacts recruiting in two ways.
The first is the obvious one. It’s hard to play catchup against other staffs when they’ve cultivated longstanding relationships with kids. The usual rebuttal to this is that “other staffs in transition manage to do it.” But another longtime Power 5 assistant says it’s more complicated than that.
“At Florida, you want to recruit against everybody. You go into a living room and sell Florida, but you’re doing it in a place where Dabo (Swinney) has been, where (Nick) Saban has been, where Kirby Smart is or Clay Helton,” the Power 5 assistant told me last week. “That’s fine, but then even if you catch up relationship-wise, you’re behind culturally, you aren’t winning. So, the most interested kids may make you wait.”
The second challenge of consistent turnover is the more fascinating one, and far less talked about. Not all staffs want to recruit the same kids, especially when there is dramatic scheme change, which there certainly is at Florida as it moves away not just from McElwain’s pro-style offense to Mullen’s run-dominant spread, but also from Shannon’s vanilla 4-3 to Todd Grantham’s Pittsburgh 3-4.
That poses significant recruiting challenges that are compounded by the relationship issue, according to Florida-based national recruiting analyst Corey Long, who for over a decade has covered college football and recruiting for the New York Times, ESPN and Saturday Down South, among other publications.
“Mullen and this coaching staff have a plan and they are going after the players they are comfortable with and feel like they fit into the scheme and the culture,” Long told me last week. “Maybe they will look to fill the ‘top end’ of the class during the season and get some bigger names in before the first signing day, but for now, it’s about crafting their target list.”
Long is sympathetic to the criticism among some writers and fans alike, however, that Florida doesn’t seem to have a specific recruiting strategy established yet under Mullen. He says a good amount of that has to do with turnover.
“I think the problem with four coaches in just over eight years is they have four different players (they have targeted),” Long said. “Gator football was different under McElwain than it was under Muschamp and will be different under Mullen. McElwain’s staff, headed by Randy Shannon, was very active in South Florida whereas Mullen’s staff doesn’t seem to be recruiting as much there. So where will their in-state focus be? Tampa? Orlando? Jacksonville? The Panhandle? What about out of state? Are they strong in Georgia or better along the Gulf Coast and Mississippi JUCOs? They need to figure out where they can establish significant inroads at and start aggressively recruiting in those areas.”
Long’s point here is supported by the reality that Florida is one of only 8 Power 5 programs that have had four head coaches since 2010. The others? Pitt, Minnesota, Illinois, Kansas, Oregon, USC and Arkansas. Of those nine programs, only Florida, USC and Oregon are considered bluebloods, and both Oregon and USC hired their fourth coach (Cristobal and Helton, respectively) from within their prior staff. Of the nine, Pitt made the largest recruiting improvement from a transition class to second class, when Pat Narduzzi improved Pitt from 46th to 30th in 2016. The difference? Pitt won 8 football games under Narduzzi after a losing season under Paul Chryst.
Winning matters, according to the Power 5 assistant.
“Helton and (Mario) Cristobal already had ideas as to who they wanted to recruit, and an offer list they didn’t need to reshape. That allowed for immediate momentum. Helton had to win more games, but USC was never in a situation like Florida where they had multiple losing seasons. Mario is at a program that has been to a College Football Playoff Championship. He and (Willie Taggart) made the offer list. Mullen’s situation is a lot more like Dabo’s was at Clemson, even though Dabo came from (Tommy) Bowden’s staff. Dabo had a different idea about how he wanted Clemson to play football. Clemson hadn’t won a conference title in forever. They had to win. It took awhile to sell that to kids.”
Long is less sure.
“In the era of the Early Signing Day period, there’s not really wait-and-see,” Long said. “I just think there’s too much turnover and coaching changes in the past few years to establish a consistent pattern of recruiting. The target list in the 2019, 2020 and 2021 classes changed with the coaching change, so there are kids that the Shannon-led group of assistants were targeting over the next three years that Mullen’s staff has decided not to pursue and in turn they have a whole new group of targets, some brought over from their evaluations while at Mississippi State. That and the schematic changes just means they start from behind.”
Still, it’s Florida, the Power 5 assistant told me. Kids will respond if Florida plays better football.
“I don’t know if it happens in this class,” the assistant said. “But the way they are upgrading things, the whole package of tradition and facilities and the NFL pipeline and academics: maybe it’s a longer rebuild, like Clemson. But Dan will get it built, if they let him.”
Call me on February 6th, 2019, when Mullen fails to sign a top-15 class – then I’ll be concerned. Until then, everything is just the bond of your word. And we all know how that goes in recruiting . . .
Thats some shade bro. I agree, I think the recruiting class will end up in the top 10 for this year.
You havent had a top 10 class in half a decade but yea this one will be!! – temper expectations is my advice – Mullen doesnt have a great recruiting track record
I think honestly, with the recruits in the state of Florida, UF should be in the top 5 every year without excuse. Mullen actually has a great recruiting track record. Did well at Florida when he was there. Did great with the Juco recruits at Miss St and saw quite a few gems where others didn’t that are now in the NFL and doing well. It will only improve now that He is in Florida and has the recruiting bed and the facilities are improving drastically over the next three years. A 8-10 win season will help a lot.
As a Mississippi State fan. Let me tell you that I have come to the conclusion that recruiting rankings are trash. Mullen looks at a recruit and envisions what he will be once he matures. He recruited benardrick McKinney to MSU. He was a lanky 2* QB recruit. He was drafted out of state as one of the top MLB in the draft. There are numbers of 1,2,3* and even unranked walk on that he put in the league
First half of the argument here is fair, Bama718. But here’s the thing about Mullen’s “track record.” Joe Moorhead arrives in Starkville and inherits the most-talented roster they’ve had in school history. I wonder who recruited that team?
We had the #9 class in 2014.
The worst class since then was McElwain’s transition class in 2015 – #21. 2016 – #12, 2017 – #11. And Mullen’s transition class was #15.
So yeah, it’s not crazy to think Mullen can pull a top-10 class for 2019 – especially when you consider that we have room to sign 25-27 guys (depending on early NFL exits, transfers, retirements, or any other scholarship-freeing mechanism).
25 is now the max a team can sign.
Mullen has a tough task because of his competition. Taggert can recruit and knows the state about as well as anyone. Add in Richt at Miami, and he’s got more competition in recruiting outside of the SEC than anyone.
I think this absolutely correct- and you throw in the fact he competes heavily with UGA, Auburn and Bama in north Florida & the Panhandle, and of course recruits want to see how it goes.
UGA’s recruiting class that was once #1 has gone quiet and sits at #15 now. Some amount of concern here too.
A deeper dive into recruiting is sometimes more important than the overall ranking. For instance, UGA has more 5 stars and a higher average rating than any other school. So why is the ranking so ‘low’? Because they only have 10 commits, which roughly corresponds to the number of scholarships they currently expect to have available.
UGA’s class won’t make headlines this year, but that doesn’t make it a bad class.
Kirby is targeting need right now and will likely close great. Wouldn’t worry about the Dawgs.
All good responses and now one of our long time commits is #1 in the country so this will work out for us.
It’s not complicated!There are two major reasons Florida is struggling with recruiting. One is that Florida is a mediocre football team. The second is that Mullen is a poor recruiter.
Since the departure of Tim Tebow, Florida has won nothing and looked terrible. A.T.(after Tebow) Florida has averaged 7.5 wins and 5 losses. During those eight years, you probably only need a single hand to count the games where Florida looked good. Even wins, like overtime at home against FAU don’t impress anyone.
Dan Mullen has never been considered, by anyone, to be a good recruiter, even as an assistant. He, promptly, got rid of the guy, Seider, who was most responsible for the success of his first class at UF. Mullen is an egomaniac just this side of the moron in the White House.
What is amazing is that anyone expected something different when Mullen has a long track record of being a mediocre recruiter. There’s a reason no one wanted Mullen for the nine years he was in Starkville.
One other thing for those enamored with Mullen’s on the field coaching acumen. How can you lose to South Alabama in your eighth year building a program?
I think, like the moron in the White House, Mullen is just a lot of hot air without any substance.
Hmm what I was about to say about your post. A lot of hot sir with no substance.
…hot air? I think that describes this article that makes a lot of excuses because they can’t handle the truth. They can’t even get their facts straight. Florida has two, not three, consensus five star players, Ivey and Jefferson
By the way, the reason they’re at Florida for their Senior year is because they’ve been huge busts. Ivey is mediocre, at best, and Jefferson disappears more than be shows up. If you have a number like Polite start over you, that says everything about Jefferson.
I present a host of facts and data points, and say that as of now, it’s mixed. I hardly present excuses. You present a host of assertions, most of which are easily rebutted by- wait for it– facts and data points. I know we don’t like facts these days but the reality is Mullen left a program to Joe Moorhead that has the best personnel in school history. At State.
I certainly agree- and write- that Florida has a broken culture and despite two ten win seasons this decade, is a long and complicated rebuild. I also note that right now, his class is about where most second year classes are, and that’s despite the challenge of being the head of the 4th staff in 8 years, something only 8 other Power 5 schools have faced.
You argue “Seider”, which is message board myth, of course. Copeland and wasn’t his dude in the end. Jones was all Mullen. Seider held ONE guy- Pierce- who probably redshirts.
As for five stars- Clayton was a consensus 5 star by definition, as multiple outlets rated him as such. He’s been a bust, but it’s a third-five star.
Ivey and Jefferson are back b/c they’ve underachieved. This is the only fact you’ve argued accurately. Goodnight.
The writer doesn’t know the meaning of “consensus.” Rivals lis the only major recruiting service that had Clayton rated a five star. ESPN, 247, and Scout had him as a four star. The 247 Composite, a ranking that combines rankings from the major recruiting services , had Clayton as a four star. You should’ve checked facts, not fantasies.
The “structural challenges “ argument is ludicrous. Teams have new coaches, almost always, because of serious problems. A dynamic recruiter overcomes “structural challenges “. Coaching turnover is also a ludicrous argument since that always happens when a coaching change is made at every school. To whine about other coaches already talking to a prospect is also ludicrous. That happens everywhere and doesn’t stop a dynamic recruiter from having success. An example of that is Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M. The competition is just as fierce in Texas and he has no previous relationship with Texas. Yet he’s kicking ass while Mullen is struggling mightily. There’s plenty more, with Taggart , for example, seal clubbing Mullen right now. Mullen is fortunate that he had a previous relationship with Emory Jones and Taggart was very late to the game or Taggart would have secured Jones. Taggart May have got lucky as well since Jones wasn’t wanted by Urban Meyer who made no effort to keep Jones. Even your touting top 300 players commuted to Florida now is ridiculous since not one, repeat zero, is among the top 200.
It’s clear that the early signing day has resulted in a different paradigm in recruiting and comparing to previous years without the early signing day is obsolete. Only someone with their head in the sand doesn’t know how poorly Florida is recruiting, compared to the competition. Making excuses, and poor ones, doesn’t change reality.
1. Clayton was a 5 star Rivals recruit and had 5 from ESPN throughout the process. Quibble with Consensus if you want, it doesn’t matter- he’s been disappointing on campus and whether he had 4 or 5 doesn’t change the blue-chip analysis of the piece, which is much more detailed than your arguments that use the word “ludicrous” a lot.
2. The article doesn’t say recruiting is going well. It says it is complicated and then quotes three experts who have signed more players than you or covered the sport longer. It then supports the arguments with data.
3. The article argues that Florida needs to do better.
4. You allege “Taggart is seal-clubbing” Mullen. He literally has one more top 300 commit at this point in the process. His players do have a higher composite average. Then again, his transition class was ranked higher, but has a couple kids with enrollment issues. Message board cowboys tellme they will get enrolled. FSU says “they are working on it.” If they don’t enroll, Mullen won Jones and won the class.
5. The article literally says the early signing day has resulted in a different paradigm. Read better.’
6.You say dynamic recruiters overcome structural challenges. Agreed. That’s in the article. What is also in the article – and again I know we don’t like facts and nuance in 2018- is an argument that Mullen’s structural challenges are similar to only 9 programs in America. Of those, only USC has overcome them (4 staffs, 8 years). Pitt also started to, mainly because Narduzzi can croot.
Anyway, thanks for the back and forth.
Snowprint, or should I say Mikey is that you? Did you find your way to Saturday Down South now to annoy the hell out of everyone here with your novels of garbage opinions? Hilarious!
Guess who’s back, back again? Lol
The landscape has changed in Florida. Are we seeing to long a list of institutions willing to enroll “anybody” who can make a difference in their win/loss bottom line. Wouldn’t you like to know what they might offer to out-sign each other. Think about it Florida State still staggering after the Winston public relations disaster, UCF riding a wave nobody thought they could ever float their board on, Controversial Kiffin hooting all over the landscape, the new revolving door philosophy at Florida, Richt solid enough to win a lot of games at Miami. Is there an SEC coach or an ACC coach that won’t look for at least one prospect from Florida? Maybe Florida has finally become over-recruited and recruits who are incomplete college student-prospects are just bound to get some attention they wouldn’t get in a normal college recruiting world. I’m noticing that Muschamp is looking like a better coach already a short time after leaving Florida. I’m noticing that Dan Mullen who should be a red-hot property is not tearing up the landscape instantly at Florida, that Jimbo Fisher went from Florida State to aTm. Mullen is a solid hire, but is Florida the geographic situation that anybody can hit a home run in today? Florida fans and Florida State fans might knock each other out trying to set a new high mark in frustrated over-expectations. Call someplace paradise, kiss it goodbye.
This is a sad article giving a lot of excuses for Mullen’s staffs’ recruiting efforts. A coach getting paid $6M shouldn’t need such excuses. His predecessor at MSU is making him look lazy. He will compete for 2nd in the sec east every 3 years and 3rd of 4th consistently. How long will he last there at that rate?
Not long.
But the Moorhead arguments are so bad. Closing on kids that Mullen’s staff had relationships with? We don’t get to say “Mullen had no relationships” and then give the new coach at State (who inherits the best roster in school history from…Mullen) credit for closing on Mullen’s guys. And Pickering is Moorhead’s best dude and he’s still doing his official to Florida. Jarrian Jones Mullen recruited since 8th grade. The list goes on.
I agree- and the article says- Mullen has to pick it up at Florida.
But the article doesn’t make any excuses. Excuses are different than outlining facts. There’s no “the dog ate my hommework” in the piece.
Yet Mullen can’t even get one of those guy’s you’ve listed that he recruited to pledge their commitment? Even with such strong relationships?
Jarrian Jones is probably working harder recruiting players for MSU than Mullen and his staff are to UF. Remember, Jarrian didn’t flip from OU to UF.
You mean other than the kicker from the last class and the QB from Virginia he started recruiting at State?
I don’t disagree that Moorhead is a GREAT hire (and wrote that on this website!). I just think the idea Mullen didn’t build a great roster at State is silliness, and I don’t think the battle for Pickering is over, even if as you say the battle for Jones appears to be. Moorhead has plenty to work with and State is in really good shape.
I meant listed in your post above not in your article. I doubt the battle for Pickering is over by any means. But he does have a relative on the roster at MSU. I’m sure that carries some weight in his decision.
And I haven’t seen anyone argue that Moorhead was handed a good roster. You keep bringing that up for some reason. I think the bulk of that roster being so solid is the fact that it is returning so many players more so than talent. Yeah talent is there, but it’s not loaded with 5* recruits like UF is used to getting. Yes Mullen has a great eye for lower rated talent and developing them but he hasn’t had great success with highly touted recruits who are being pulled at from elite teams in every direction.
There are plenty of stories of recruits passing on Mullen and his staff because of their attitude and just not putting in the time other schools did. Just ask A.J. Brown straight out of his back yard while at MSU.
Dawg44 of course he lost a lot of players from his own back yard. What kid in their right mind would want to stay in that $%ithole? Any MSU fan that criticizes the best head coach that program has ever seen, the guy who brought them to 8 of the 21 TOTAL bowl games they’ve been to in 123 years, is just salty he left. That’s quite obvious to everyone.
Who cares about UF anymore ….(yawn). Never be the same w/o spurrier, and never will be – He built that s-hole of a town.
Dont you have LGBT rave to be at?
Whut?
On the other side of the equation, lets look at the top UF Recruiting Excuses:
1. It’s only July.
Counter: It is July for the 34 schools ahead of UF, too.
2. Mullen has not coached a game.
Counter: Taggart, Pruitt, Fischer, and Moorhead have not either and they are killing it.
In short, Gators football has a problem.
Taggart didn’t walk into an abysmal S&C program without any proven commodity at QB.
Pruitt walked into a mess with a 2018 National Championship ring (a lot shinier than Mullen’s two rings, to 2019 recruits).
Fischer also has a NC ring 2019 recruits can actually remember, a proven option at QB, and less of a culture mess.
And Moorhead was gifted the most steady program of any Power 5 coaching change this off-season, courtesy of . . . Mullen.
Mullen has the hardest current sell when the only confirmable news to come from summer is “the S&C program is better under Savage.”
He also stands to benefit the most from a successful season. That’s the only way for him to gain momentum, aside from getting guys to pull the trigger just because.