Better or worse? Transfers bring options, explosiveness to Florida's offense in 2020
Editor’s note: This is the 1st in a series previewing every SEC East team’s offense. Next: Georgia.
July. It’s hot. Summer just officially started and yet summer seems endless, especially in 2020, the year of the ‘rona. But that feeling you go when the calendar flipped from June? That’s called hope. College football is just around the corner and it’s talking season — the time of year when every football program thinks big things are on the August and September horizon.
Down in Gainesville, the chatter is about whether Year 3 of the Dan Mullen era is when the Gators make the Atlanta breakthrough. Yes, in his 2 years on campus, Mullen did a remarkable job flipping a toxic culture and 4-win team into a program with back-to-back New Year’s 6 bowl wins. That’s not insignificant. Orange Bowl wins are a big deal, even at storied programs like Florida. But Florida fans want more. They want SEC championships and College Football Playoff appearances. They want to stop losing the Cocktail Party. Is this the year it happens?
As is often the case at Florida, the home of Tim Tebow, Urban Meyer’s spread and Steve Spurrier’s high-flying offenses that changed life in the SEC forever, the story begins on offense.
After a decade of offensive misery under the likes of Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain, Mullen’s offenses have started to, ever so slowly, come alive in The Swamp. Mullen’s first team finished a decade-high 22nd in total offense and 15th in S&P, and last season’s unit finished a decade-best 22nd in yards per play (6.2) and 11th in S&P+ offense.
They averaged 33.2 points per game. That was a slight dip from the 2018 production, but the Gators still were tied for 3rd in the SEC and ahead of every other SEC East team.
No one is mistaking those numbers for the Spurrier era or the zenith of Meyer and Mullen, but the Gators are getting closer.
Is Year 3 under Mullen the year where Florida’s offense finally wakes up the echoes? Will this group be even better than last year’s group? There’s reason to believe …
Personnel: Even
Key losses: Lamical Perine (RB), Van Jefferson (WR), Freddie Swain (WR), Joshua Hammond (WR), Tyrie Cleveland (WR)
Key returnees: Kyle Trask (QB), Kyle Pitts (TE), Trevon Grimes (WR), Brett Heggie (OL), Kadarius Toney (WR)
Potential breakout players: Jacob Copeland (WR), Lorenzo Lingard (RB)
Given Mullen’s outstanding track record with development, it’s tempting to suggest Florida will field better personnel on offense in 2020 than they did a season ago.
The Gators return the most successful quarterback the program has had in a decade in Kyle Trask, who threw for nearly 3,000 yards despite starting only 10 games. They also return the SEC’s biggest matchup nightmare in tight end Kyle Pitts, who rightly finds himself on many preseason All-American lists.
Couple that with the fact the offensive line, much-maligned a season ago for its inability to get much leverage in the run game, returns in mass (pun intended) and started to improve late in the season with the development of Ethan White and former blue-chip recruit Richard Gouriage — and there is optimism that the Gators will have more balance in 2020.
That hope must be tempered with the reality that Florida must replace 4 program stalwarts at wide receiver. The Gators return only 2 of their top 7 pass-catchers from a season ago (Pitts, Grimes), which means other players need to step up. Playmaker Kadarius Toney, for example, must find ways to run routes consistently and be more involved in the passing game. Jacob Copeland, the highly-coveted receiver who chose Florida over Alabama, needs to break through. And Florida will look to replace program heartbeat Lamical Perine, a back who could run, block and catch, by committee.
Those lingering challenges, which couldn’t be solved in spring ball due to COVID-19, make this all a push.
Passing Offense: Even
As noted above, the Gators lost 5 of their top 7 pass-catchers from a season ago. That’s nearly 150 receptions, 2,000 yards of offense and 16 touchdowns gone, for those scoring at home.
The decision by Grimes, an NFL prototype with a Julio Jones build, to return was immense and gives the Gators a reliable target outside of Pitts, whom defenses will key on in the absence of Van Jefferson and the forever open Freddie Swain.
But who emerges beyond Grimes?
Is it Toney, the first player at UF since Percy Harvin to average better than a first down per touch in consecutive seasons? He needs to be more consistent or his senior season will be like the 3 before it: full of flashes without any staying power.
Is it Jacob Copeland? He closed the season strong and no one questions his speed, work ethic or physicality. He just has to expand his grasp of the offense.
Is it freshman Xzavier Henderson, another coveted recruiting prize? Or Justin Shorter, the 5-star transfer from Penn State, who program insiders expect to receive a waiver?
These are options — and good ones. But the loss of spring ball means there’s no evidence they are truly answers.
Rushing Offense: Better
Last season, in this space, we correctly predicted the Florida run game would go backward thanks to an inexperienced offensive-line and Mullen going a bit more to the pass with all the weapons on the perimeter.
We just didn’t realize how far the drop would be. Florida finished in the 100s in rushing offense, despite the presence of the outstanding Perine, who, despite little blocking, managed to turn in arguably the biggest play of Florida’s season when he went 88 yards around right tackle to seal the Gators win over a top-10 Auburn team.
This season, the offensive line should be better and that should translate into improved production in the run game.
Florida hasn’t recruited much at the running back position under Mullen, but for now, the running back room is solid, with high-end talents in Dameon Pierce and 5-star transfer Lorenzo Lingard, who received a waiver, joining the likes of Malik Davis, a former All-SEC freshmen team selection, and 4-star talent Nay’quan Wright, a burner from Carol City who redshirted a season ago.
Those options are plenty good enough, especially if Davis is finally healthy after the injuries that slowed his past 2 campaigns. An expanded package for backup quarterback Emory Jones should also keep the Gators diverse and help the team become more explosive in the run game in 2020.
Kicking Game: Better
Junior Evan McPherson is, statistically at least, the best returning kicker in the SEC. He’s 34-for-38 in his career (best returning percentage in the SEC), including 7-for-8 from 40 yards or longer (best returning percentage in the SEC). He has worked hard to expand his range this offseason and it will be interesting if Mullen, who would frequently go for it on 4th down from the mid-30s area, will let his kicker work instead.
Overall: Better
Kyle Trask won’t make a “Joe Burrow” type leap in 2020 (who does and who again will?).
But he’s plenty good enough to make a jump, and with improved balance in the run game, he’ll benefit from the return of a staple Mullen schemes better than anyone in the business: read option and play-action.
As is always the case in the SEC, the key is the offensive line — but the Gators won 11 games and piled up points with last season’s patchwork unit. If the line continues to build on what was an excellent November, this could be Florida’s most explosive offense since the 2008 national championship team.
If Lingard can step in and run the rock and our O-line can take the expected upward trend we will be in Atlanta.
I’m not concerned with our receivers they’re better in my opinion this year and should be clicking by game 3.
Defense is solid with more depth and Cox along with the super freshman Dexter should be just fine. Can’t wait to see Wilson & Elam on the corners.
If we have a season,,,,,that is.
Our receivers are definitely not better this year. But if our run game gets going it can help open the pass game more
Maybe not better, after all we have the same guys minus the 4 seniors that left. But when you take into account how crowded that WR room was last year I don’t think we will miss a beat with the guys that are coming back
@TheRealcojones…….Yea, I don’t think you miss A beat either. I think you miss a bunch of beats!!! Crowded room don’t mean ELITE. UGA had and has just as crowded of a wr room!!! But you saw us have problems!!! The team does NOT have more depth!!! You already had a good running back. And he is gone!!!
NO QUESTION, WORSE!!!!
King Negan
No question? Really?
We had an elite and crowded WR room, now we just have blue chip players in the not so crowded room. You sound like your other Moron half brother predicting doom and gloom for UF. At the risk of sounding racist one Georgia Moron looks and sounds just like the next
Finally, a realistic take on what was lost from the wr position last year. Sure, lsu and bama received all the attn last year with their wr corps, but uf’s was solid on top of solid and easily the #3 class in the league, even better than what Tn had with Jennings and callaway.
jefferson was the best wr on the roster by a landslide. excellent route runner, great hands and would catch every 50/50 ball
swain was maybe the most underrated wr in the league, especially once toney went down
cleveland was maybe the best blocking wr in the league
you can’t lose those three and say the passing offense will be just as good or even better. that’s nonsense.
Toney is certainly a potential weapon that could have a bounce back year, while pitts looks to be a 1st team candidate at the te position, but that’s just 2 players with a proven track record to replace the 3 aforementioned players. high expectations for any of the other players (returning, transfers or incoming players) are purely projection and unfounded
Not just 2 players, we also have Grimes and Copeland who are proven and with a track record. Thing is we had so many players at the position last year that you may not have heard of them but they had plenty of playing time
u could be right, but i just don’t see either of those 2 accounting for the lost value of what was lost with the aforementioned 3.
I disagree, first and foremost Copeland is faster than any of the three seniors we lost and he’s added 20 pounds in Savage’s system without losing speed. He was hurt last year for most of the season as was Toney.
I am sorry I should have mentioned Pitts in earlier post. CDM should have excellent schemes with this group.
Grimes and Copeland can stretch the field and Toney in slot. Pitts was a nightmare last year for opponents and this year should be better for him.
While Jefferson and Swain were seniors they had a wealth of knowledge and I cant help to think it was passed on to the underclassmen.
Also think Wilson should stay at star
Who would be our 2nd CB? I think Kimbrough would do fine at STAR, thought he did well last year.
We should move Trey Dean back outside where he flourished as a freshman.
Idk but Wilson just seems more comfortable at star
“Those lingering challenges, which couldn’t be solved in spring ball due to COVID-19,” the only challenge this applies to would be to any freshman like Henderson or a transfer like Shorter. At best these guys would be the 5th or 6th option. The 4 top guys have been there done that. And then there are guys like Wells, Jackson and Zipperer who haven’t had a chance to play much
Really hoping Stewart Reese is a huge upgrade on the line.
Don’t think our receivers are better than last year and it’s pretty scary to think what happens if Grimes gets injured. Would have been great if Hammond redshirted his freshman year, create some separation in the WRs.
I’m rather High on the Florida Gators in 2020…The East is Florida’s-to-Lose this year & the Hopefully We’ll Meet in Atlanta. After a decade of frustration…the Gators are Back.
Hopefully there is a season
The author closes this article with reference of building upon an, ‘excellent november.’ This feels very Tn like in which their fans get over-hyped, like they are again heading into this year with a dominant november the season before. to pump the breaks, who did uf play last november?
– 11-3 UGA, of which was a L
– 2-10 Vandy
– 5-7 Mizz
– 6-6 FSU
everyone likes to see their team finish strong, but UF’s november looks eerily similar to TN’s november: UAB, UK, Mizz & Vandy
UGA went 12-2 last year.
Correct, but that doesn’t change the narrative
The failed, stupid narrative that is
As a typical Georgia troll in your haste to post something negative you missed the point.
First UT finished 8-5 while we went 11-2 so there is no comparison and no need to artificially pump us up. Furthermore what the author was referring to with an “excellent November” was the improved play of the O line towards the end of the year arguing that improvement will carry over this year.
Finally you left out our last game, a bowl victory over 9 – 5 Virginia, not that it matters in context but it doesn’t fit your stupid narrative. So nice try but still a fail
UVA was left out because they played in December, not November. Stupid post by Ricker either way but that’s why they were left out.
No trolling, just supported facts.
– UF’s november was against push-overs, with exception to the UGA game, that they lost. So, any improved line play was against inferior competition, but hey, if you want to grade yourself against inferior competition, you’re welcome to it.
– As for the uva game, my bad, I didn’t realize that Dec. 30th was in november. the author said november, but if u believe that expanding it to december 30th helps your point, have at it.
Our oline play was pretty bad against everyone in the run game so any improvement is good improvement
Ricker I think you need to pump the brakes on what you think TN fans took away from last November. Sure we are pleased that the team and coaching staff pulled out of the early nosedive and salvaged a decent record but we have not been predicting championships in 2020. We are and should be optimistic but we are the last fan base to get over-hyped after all we have been through.
My question to Florida is what year are the O line starters? If they are mostly sophomores and juniors then a significant improvement could very well be in the cards. But if they are more jrs and seniors then One could make the argument if they aren’t good by now they may not be. I have been in the Florida corner for the east this season but admittedly haven’t done much research into your teams comings and goings. The hit to the WR room is substantial and to me it sounds like that o line needs to really step up to make it to Atlanta. As previous articles have stated “if not now when?”
Seems like a genuine question so I’ll try to give you an answer. 247 recently posted what they believe the line up will be on offense. 2 of the starters are sophomores, 3 are seniors. Of the seniors, one is a very capable grad transfer from Miss State, another was considered one of our best lineman of the last two years. In the second string there’s two redshirt freshman, a sophomore, a junior, and seniors. So although it may seem like just a bad o line that’s older, it’s actually mostly younger guys that now have had plenty of playing time or proven upperclassmen.
Also the hit to the WR room was significant more to depth than to skill especially if Shorter is cleared (he’s expected to be). If he is, we will have 4 WRs with a grade of 97 or higher. That’s not including Toney or Pitts. Granted, grades out of highschool aren’t everything and some of these guys are unproven but the ability is there. Depth will be a concern though whereas last year we could have lost two starters and not missed a beat.
That’s the biggest problem is depth. We have Pitts, Copeland and grimes that’s it in terms of proven receivers. Toney has yet to show the ability to run routes past the line of scrimmage and the rest are complete unknowns. Shorter though a five star recruit has yet to do anything in college. After that our WR room gets thin quickly
Thanks gatorgrad. It was a legit question. So though the o line has 3 starting seniors?, it’s the two young guys and red shirts you feel will make the difference. This years seniors played pretty good last year but the o line suffered overall due to some of the inexperienced linemen. That’s fair. We had similar issues and are expecting a very improved o line, especially if Mays is cleared, but even if he isn’t.
Agree Ben. Although there are positions where I’m more worried about depth like corner.
Fuzzy I fully expect UT’s line to be better than UFs. You guys have a long way to go but that’s a good first step in fixing an offense.
Curious grad12g8r…4 WRs with a grade of .97 or higher, who? Grimes .98 is, Copeland .965 not quite, who else?
Not sure …but he may mean Shorter, the 5* transfer …and the other maybe Henderson. Don’t have the #s …but was top 60ish recruit last classs
I’ve only been doing two decimal places so I counted Copeland. Don’t worry I kept it fair and rounded guys down as well. Feel free to use three and say we have 4 guys with a .965 and up rating. Upstate is correct. Shorter was a .99 and Henderson was .97
I believe whoever wins the WLOCP takes the East crown.
Look for UGA to enter with the game one loss (Bama) and UF to quite realistically enter undefeated.
I think the “X-Factors” this year are both on offense. For UGA, it’s a mobile QB or a QB that can make all the throws if Daniels gets a waiver. For UF, Lingard fills a HUGE hole at RB.
Go Dawgs!
Everyone giving up on the Bama game so quickly and easily may be premature.
Obviously I hope your right. If we had a real Spring camp and that game was a bit later in the year, then I would feel different about it.
Don’t forget, by the time we enter T Town, that game will be our third in 13 days.
Installing a new offense with a new QB and potential COVID impacts should be concerning to UGA. They bring the personnel back and the defense should be stout, but may need a season to put up pre-2019 numbers on offense
The WRs aren’t as talented as the guys who left. The O-Line has been mediocre at best. Only way I see the pass gm being better is if Trask plays lights out. He’ll be better but not enough to make the pass gm overall better.
I think the biggest chance for improvement is the run gm which has been very poor. I still got the Dawgs winning the East as they’ll stop the run and force UF to be great passing. They don’t have the WR talent to do it.
So, overall they may be better due to an improved run gm. They’ll be very fortunate to be the same as last year in passing.
I think we can put up the same numbers passing and Trask does give our receivers the ability to make plays but I agree their aren’t many proven commodities in our Wr. Grimes and Pitts are legit and Copeland is good but the experience of our other receivers to know where to sit for the holes in the zone will be felt.
1- The WRs aren’t as talented as the guys who left
Wrong, actually they are more talented
2 – The O-Line has been mediocre at best
Wrong again, mediocre to bad in the run but good in pass protection
Plus they got better as the season went on & should be much improved in the run this time around.
Run game will be better and so will the passing game
You lie! WRs are NOT as good as what left. The sorry run gm has no where to go but up. The O-Line has been weak for a while now.
No worries, the schedule is extremely weak so you get 9 wins falling out of bed. You’ve got a 2 gm season with UGA and LSU. Split those and the Gators could make the playoffs without going to Atlanta (lose to UGA beat LSU).
But your pass gm is likely worse than last yr. Your hope you the run gm makes leaps.
Your hope is your run gm makes leaps….
You lie!???? Why the exclamation point dude, relax.
There is no lying when dealing in opinions, only some opinions are informed and some are not. Your opinion is of the latter category unless you profess to know more about our WRs than Gator insiders. Copeland and Grimes both are rated higher than Hammond and Swain were, both are also faster. In most metrics both are better.
But no worries, you believe what you will and (hopefully) we will find out on the field
What if Lingard is overrated. I’m not saying he is, but what if he is. What if he’s underrated. We non Gators have a lot to learn about him and I’m exited to do so.
Don’t exit bro.
I wasn’t saying anything bad about him.
C – “Exited” vs “Excited” in your post.
Typooo
Dameon Pierce will be just fine.
He’s a complete mystery to me.
17 carries and 136 yards. Nice 8.0 YPC average but it’s a very small sample size.
Coach Mullen honored Perrine for staying his senior year and foregoing the draft. Perrine would never be a feature back in the NFL but needed to integrate pass blocking skills into his skill level. He accomplished that btw.
Perrine was pretty good. Auburn told him he was too slow. What a mistake.
Recruiting someone is difficult that’s a between a 3-4 star. Perrine just had so much heart.
**excited
Hey @SDS, Debates Down South on who would we rather have kicked out of the SEC, Paul Finebaum, or Gary Danielson!
Can’t we boot them both!!!! Lol.
I say GD. You can avoid Finebaum by not watching his show, but if your tm is on CBS, no avoiding GD. You could turn down the volume but then you miss the crowd noise, which I like.
Maybe I’m blind, but why does everyone hate Gary. The only thing I was upset about was his laughing at the Georgia girl who got knocked out. Other than that I thought he’s been decent. Same goes for color guys like Chris Collingsworth. They get a lot of heat, and I don’t really get why.
The only gripe I have with Gary is that when your team starts losing, he really piles it on. It’s kinda nice when you’re winning though.
Collinsworth is an arse. His nickname in school was “Cadillac”
Like Gatorgrad said, when your team is losing, he’s downhill on them constantly. Also he seems to favor Alabama every now and then.
More than anything, he’s a front runner. He always takes the view of the favorite tm. One tm can be favored by 3pts and he acts like the other tms chances are slim to none. They’ve got to be “perfect” to win! I think that’s why he comes off as favoring Bama so much when they’re on. They’re usually favored.
Once he’s established his narrative that the underdogs have little chance and must play perfect to win at the start of the game, he should just call it how it plays out. But he doesn’t. He’s the worst!
This team will not beat South Carolina this year. Very over-hyped squad. Perine will be hard to replace. The East could very well belong to Mr. Jamie Newman, in all likelihood.
The East what could belong to Jamie Newman?
Call him by his full name. Jamie Overrated Newman.
Pig have you been hangin with humper knocking a few back today?
Hey now! I’m right here…
Lol, hope you and you’re family are safe and well humper
Marsh I second that emotion, Humper is in that critical age group that needs to stay home and stay off the computer
Lol, you guys rock!
LOL
In my mind it comes down to how improved is the offensive line? If they aren’t significantly better then I think UF has a ceiling of 10-2 and finishing second in the East again, and a floor of 8-4. However, if the line really is improved then they could make it to Atlanta.
Actually I went back and looked at Florida’s schedule, and I can’t believe how easy it is, in comparison to some of the other SEC squads. Unless the wheels fall off they should go 9-3 or better. Their non-conference schedule is a cake walk now that FSU is in a tailspin, and they draw Ole Miss, which is the most favorable matchup from the West, outside of Arkansas. They will be favorites in all but maybe two games, UGA and LSU. There is a possibility the Kentucky or Tennessee could pull off an early season upset, but I definitely see Florida finishing in the 9-3 to 11-1 range.
Most Gator fans are pretty confident that the line will be significantly better this year. It’s not just fan optimism either. Most people knew our line was going to be bad last year. We return almost everybody and no position benefits more from another year of experience/S&C than O-line. Depth is also not as big of a concern.
I’m on the fence, returning an Oline that everyone knew was going to be bad last year with another year of experience doesn’t automatically equate to a really good one the next year. Did you guys add any elite talent to it?
I understand what you mean, one more year doesn’t always result in added skill. However, O lineman need to be big. 18 and 19 year old kids are growing. They also need time to gel and learn the offense. I would rather have a senior line of 3 star recruits than a freshman line of 5 stars. I wouldn’t have that opinion of other positions.
As for your question, we certainly have added talent, and depth.
Reese .90 (senior transfer re-evaluated)
Braun .90
Mincey .86
Leonard .86
I think we only lost two guys – Bleich in the fall and Buchanon to graduation. The numbers and average star ranking are going to be better.
Gatorgrad, don’t cite those sub-0.9800 ratings to Leghumper. You’ll just get a silly remark about UGA’s practice squad…
Even though Cole Cubelic (a former SEC center (Auburn) has rated Kentucky’s offensive line ahead of Georgia’s for 2020, and Kentucky’s likely starters (Young, Fortner, Jackson, Horsey, Kinnard) have an average rating of just 0.8935… and even though Florida’s likely starting offensive line (Gourage, Reese, Heggie, White, Forsythe) have an about the same average rating as Kentucky’s.
Interesting side note: the average rating for Florida’s second group of offensive linemen (Tarquin, Braun, McDowell, Moore, Delance) is higher than the starters.
Lol, yes Cole knows ratings, no doubt. Just behind Tennessee and Alabama’s lines…can’t figure out why he doesn’t have y’all ahead of us too…Mincey and Gardner maybe backups but Braun definitely first team practice squad…kid’s gonna be a good one…
I don’t expect the freshman to contribute too much but Mullen has been bringing the numbers of lineman up and the quality. We obviously aren’t recruiting them at the clip that UGA is. But look at that Nash! Not a single “Mullet” or mention of practice squad. The fourth of July truly unites the nation
“They [the Gators] want to stop losing the Cocktail Party.” For any adult Gator fan, the last few years of the Cocktail Party are just an aberration.
Trevon Grimes has 59 receptions for 850 yards over the last two seasons at Florida. And even though Jacob Copeland was injured last year, he still had 21 receptions for 273 yards and two TDs. Jefferson was an exceptional route runner, but this wide receiver group is more talented than the senior group from last year.
We honestly have no idea how good Lorenzo Lingard is going to be. But Dameon Pierce running behind that inexperienced offensive line last year? 5.6 yards a carry and four TDs on 56 carries. Oh, and 6.1 yards a carry and two TDs on 61 carries in 2018. Zero fumbles both years.
5.6 and 6.1 behind that inexperienced line, I’m confused, are you implying good stats or bad?
You do recognize, you take away that one 75yd missed tackle run against CootU and Pierce barely averaged 2 yds a carry if that against the SEC East last year, right?
And if we take away the fake punt against Bama UGA might be shining a NC trophy from this century. Just saying.
Nash, Pierce fumbled in the Auburn game. It should of been targeting though so I’m not gonna count it.
Why does SDS continue to ignore the fact that Kyle Trask is one of the most inefficient returning QBs in all of CFB on passes that travel ten yards or more from the line of scrimmage?
It’s baffling. It’s like none of y’all care about actual data that matters.
Data – Like the number 4?
4 – The number of times you have tried to get traction with this stat on different SDS threads
4 – The number of times it has been ignored because the offense wasn’t geared toward this in 2019
24-17 – the score of the Florida Georgia game last year. We watched it and you were going to bring it up anyway.
1 – Parties you were invited to since 2012 that weren’t centered around a Dungeons and Dragons game.
But is it true? I’m curious, first time I’ve heard this, what is Kyle’s % in the 10+yards range?
I certainly don’t know. But I’m guessing that like every other quarterback on Planet Earth, it’s lower than his CMP % at under 10 yards.
Oh, and by the way, something like 85% of all passes are completed at less than 10-15 yards. I don’t recal the precise yardage for the stat.
Humper, I don’t know what his percentage is, but does it really matter when he throws for almost 3000 yards and 25 TDs in 10 starts? It’s basically just a case of the king of all trolls grasping at straws to find anything he can to criticize.
Of course it matters g8rJoe…maybe not so much for us talking heads, but for DCs I’m sure it’s quite important…if he can’t consistently stretch the field that may explain the sorely lacking run game you guys had last year, and will have this year if true…
Well of course it matters, Leghumper.
Ah, time to debunk more myths. According to PFF:
First, Trask’s arm supposed “average” arm strength is a myth. The guy is 6-5 and 238 pounds. He has plenty of arm strength. As for specific deep ball numbers, at 20+ yards, Trask completed 18 of 42 passes (42.9%), for 499 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. His passer rating was above 100 in each 20+ yard zone of the field, at 106.4 (left), 101.8 (middle) and 118.9 (right).
42.9% is a very good deep ball completion ratio. A quarterback’s attempts and completion ratio decline as the yardage increases. The numbers below are deep ball (20+ yards) completion percentages and passer ratings for 33 NFL quarterbacks in 2019. For quarterbacks who didn’t play much in 2019, the numbers include 2018. It’s worth noting that Garoppolo threw the lowest number of deep passes of any NFL quarterback in 2019. The passer rating factors in touchdowns and interceptions.
61.3% Jimmy Garoppolo, 105.2
50.1% Patrick Mahomes, 122.9
49.0% Gardner Minshew, 129.0
48.4% Drew Brees, 107.2
46.7% Teddy Bridgewater, 75.7
46.1% Dak Prescott, 110.2
44.6% Deshaun Watson, 102.8
42.9% Matt Ryan, 76.5
42.3% Russell Wilson, 119.2
41.9% Kyler Murray, 94.5
41.1% Matthew Stafford, 86.9
40.4% Jameis Winston, 97.1
40.2% Tom Brady, 102.1
40.0% Lamar Jackson, 111.9
40.0% Ryan Fitzpatrick, 109.9
39.3% Kirk Cousins, 119.7
37.8% Ryan Tannehill, 112.7
37.5% Derek Carr, 93.1
35.5% Baker Mayfield, 71.7
35.1% Carson Wentz, 79.4
34.5% Ben Roethlisberger, 112.9
34.4% Mitch Trubisky, 62.4
34.2% Philip Rivers, 59.1
33.3% Aaron Rodgers, 111.2
32.1% Andy Dalton, 66.6
31.3% Tyrod Taylor, 82.0
30.4% Jared Goff, 44.0
29.6% Daniel Jones, 74.2
29.4% Sam Darnold, 75.9
27.9% Jacoby Brissett, 51.1
27.3% Drew Lock, 55.9
25.9% Dwayne Haskins, 41.4
24.1% Josh Allen, 64.4
You’re Kidd right, Nash, The same PFF that had this?
PFF Rankings: Final college football starting quarterback rankings Jan 2020 article…
16. JAMIE NEWMAN, SAM HARTMAN – WAKE FOREST
Preseason Rank: 37; Week 6 Rank: 7; Week 12 Rank: 11
Newman’s services are headed to Georgia in 2020 and that leaves Hartman as the next man up. He’ll have big shoes to fill with the void of Newman’s transfer. Newman finished the year as the country’s sixth highest-graded quarterback on all throws at least 10 yards downfield, completing passes at a high rate and uncorking 22 big-time throws compared to just four turnover-worthy passes. He stood tall in the pocket and utilized his big arm to squeeze throws into tight windows, seemingly at will. When necessary, Newman took something off the ball and floated passes into his big receivers on the outside. He was the country’s 10th highest-graded passer on throws outside the numbers in 2019, completing 106-of-175 attempts for 1,548 yards, 17 touchdowns and 13 of his big-time throws came on such passes.
66. KYLE TRASK, FELEIPE FRANKS – FLORIDA
Preseason Rank: 43; Week 6 Rank: 58; Week 12 Rank: 65
As much as Florida fans clamored for Franks to be removed for Trask, we may be at a time where those same Gator fans are asking for Emory Jones instead of Trask after his average performance in 2019. Jones’ upside is one thing – and Trask’s play this past season certainly wasn’t terrible as he completed 66.7% of his passes for 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. However, Trask launched just nine big-time throws compared to his 22 turnover-worthy passes, a mark that certainly isn’t pleasing on the eyes.
Still, when he did find his stride, some of his passes were as pretty as any in the conference, he’ll just need to have more of those big-time throw moments instead of the play above if he wants to quiet Gator fans wanting Jones. Good thing for Trask: he has the arm to do so.
Leghumper, while the data I cited came from PFF, completion ratio is just a fact and passer rating is an objective NFL formula.
As for PFF’s subjective analyses, grading methods and opinions, I think all have serious flaws. Not least of these is grading players who face apples and oranges levels of competition the same. It’s absurd.
Apples n oranges like comparing Trasks 42.9 vs NFL’ers while leaving out that 66% of his stats were in games against hugely inferior competition and his games against stiffer competition like Newman is going to see was much less impressive or efficient? I like apples and oranges, grapefruit not so much
40-42% CMP at 20+ yards is typical for good college quarterbacks.
Burrow was crazy good at 20+ yards in 2019; I think over 60%. I believe Tua was second at about 56%.
If you like stats don’t look at Jamie Newman’s stats they may make u cry
I am curious though what is his percentage? How many attempts, do you take into account his o-line didn’t give him a lot of time to pass? Do you also take into account that teams knew we could t run so they played off taking away the deep throws but leaving more underneath stuff? What about other Trask stats like leading in TDs, yards, completion %, or QBR of any returning Sec QB? Or did you just find one bad stat about trasks and use that to make him seem like a not so good QB. It’s not trasks fault he didn’t have 5 star receivers and oline in his offense and play 2.5 less games and still outperform Fromm
I cannot locate the stat that he is referring to. But in the grander scheme, it isn’t a stat that condemns a QB to mediocrity. The following are the 2019 SEC rankings in their respective categories:
Pass Efficiency Rating – Burrow, Trask, Guarantano, Fromm, Bryant
Pass Completion Percentage – Burrow, Trask, Bryant, Mond, Fromm
Pass Yards – Burrow, Trask, Mond, Fromm, Tua
Yds/Attempt – Burrow, Guarantano, Trask, Bryant, Fromm
Passing TD’s – Burrow, Tua, Trask, Fromm, Mond
Ints – Starkel, Mond, Guarantano, Trask, (3 tied for 5th)
The previous stats are from Sports-Reference
Your efficiency rating and completion percentages are wrong… According to ESPN Trask wasn’t second in the SEC in either category…
If you’re using sports reference the omit some players in certain categories depending on the number of games played ..
The only asterisk indicated that bowl game stats were included to those eligible. Not sure how they are computed differently based on source. Regardless, the meaningful data does not support the claim that because one statistic doesn’t favor Trask he is a questionable QB.
But it may explain the lack of a running game…
Arrow.. Do you really think Trasks Efficiency rating and Completion percentage was better than Tua’s?
The fact Tua wasn’t even listed should probably draw in to question the validity of the stats..
You are welcome to find additional stats that will give Tua the love that he richly deserves thereby ensuring that an article about Florida does not exclude the requisite genuflecting to Bama.
That’s funny!
I’m just using stats that are correct…
I mean if you want to make trask appear as though he did better than he actually did you can just omit all the other QBs that are above him…
Probably better due to better o-line play, though I question the overall talent level on that unit. Receivers should be fine, no reason for the RBs themselves not to be better, QB should be just a good as last year, and they return an all-american at TE.
Kirby, and I mean this in all seriousness, “talent” is an incredibly difficult metric to rate out of high school for offensive linemen. What is offensive line talent? Basically quickness out of the stance and footwork? Footwork can be improved upon with college coaching, strength and conditioning. Possibly quickness can too.
What about size? I track a “bulk” metric, which is weight divided by height in inches. Florida’s and Georgia’s average “bulk” metrics for their respective offensive line position groups are virtually identical, with Florida at 4.12 for 2020 and Georgia at 4.10.
The biggest difference between the two OL groups, in my opinion?
Florida has one regular senior and five fifth year seniors in the OL group, five of which will see a lot of playing time. Georgia has just one regular senior and one fifth year senior. Perhaps more than any other position except quarterback, offensive linemen benefit from age and experience.
In connection with our comments the other day about Georgia high school player ratings, I think Georgia players may often get an extra bump because the high school coaching at many programs in Georgia is excellent. But that advantage can evaporate as an opponent’s players have more time in college.
I’ve found that most 5th year seniors on the OLine are 5th year seniors because they aren’t good enough to NFL OLine…but that’s just me…
To be^ NFL
Probably true. But that doesn’t mean that can’t be very effective in college.
Against inferior competition I agree
Players can be very good and still not get drafted. The draft is finite: just 224 players from the pool of all positions and 11,000 scholarship FBS players, plus a small number of FCS players.
Of those, a grand total of 115 draft-eligible juniors declared for the 2020 NFL draft. In 2019, only 71 of 104 players who declared early got drafted.
In 2020, 47 offensive linemen were drafted; about 2.4% of scholarship FBS offensive linemen assuming 15 per FBS roster.
Gator Martez Ivey was the #1 offensive tackle recruit in 2015. He not only didn’t get drafted, he couldn’t make a team as a free agent. But he was an excellent college player.
Gator Jawaan Taylor was the #941 rated recruit in 2016 and a 3-star at 0.8453. He has a $7.8 million contract with the Jaguars.
I predict that Kentucky’s and Florida’s offensive lines will perform quite admirably against Georgia’s highly rated and vastly superior on paper defensive front seven this season.
Nice stats Nash…I thought Leghumper Tae Crowder was numero 255 mr irrelevat last year but close enuff.
He was and I don’t know how some rounds ended up being more than 32, but 7 x 32 = 224.
I agree that the o-line position is hard to accurately rate, especially for high schoolers, but the past few NFL drafts have shown a pretty dang good job done by evaluators I believe.