FLORIDA
ESPN's FPI predicts every game for Florida in 2020
The Florida Gators have some high expectations this year. Many expect Dan Mullen’s squad to compete for the SEC East title and even a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The Georgia Bulldogs have won the East the past 3 seasons, but the Gators have a lot of returning talent.
What does ESPN’s Football Power Index think of the Gators? According to the 2020 FPI projections, Florida is expected to go 9-1:
- Sept. 26 @ Ole Miss — 78.9% win probability
- Oct. 3 vs. South Carolina — 85.6% win probability
- Oct. 10 @ Texas A&M — 52.6% win probability
- Oct. 17 vs. LSU — 53.5% win probability
- Oct. 24 vs. Mizzou — 91.2% win probability
- Nov. 7 vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville) — 40.4% win probability
- Nov. 14 vs. Arkansas — 92.1% win probability
- Nov. 21 @ Vanderbilt — 94.9% win probability
- Nov. 28 vs. Kentucky — 83.3% win probability
- Dec. 5 @ Tennessee — 80.0% win probability
Will the Gators live up to that 9-1 prediction? Exceed it? Come up short? We’ll find out starting on Sept. 26 in Oxford!
Well, if we have to lose just one it should be to the defending and all time national… oh wait they didn’t win anything yet
That is a good take for us. I think this will be one heck of an interesting season. Lots of surprises in the final scores.
I just don’t see anyway UGA beats UF. These folks are not reading the message boards.
Come on now don’t sell yourself short, it will be extremely difficult to beat a team like UGA that has so many Heisman QBs and the best defense in the history of college football. Of course we’ll give it our best shot even though our QB wasn’t even a starter for his HS team
But UF has that genius head coach who could beat Bobby Fischer in chess blind-folded. GOAT head coach in waiting. Lol.
ESPN’s FPI doesn’t read the message boards. It just looks at all those 5-stars and spits out, “no way Georgia should ever lose a game.” Except to Alabama, where, ESPN FPI gives Georgia just a 27% chance of winning. This is most likely due to the fact that, even though the rosters are comparable, Georgia has no quarterback with starting experience in the previous year (J.T. Daniels sat out virtually all of 2019 with his knee injury). That and the recent head-to-head record.
The FPI also gives weight to previous record and coaching tenure. So, for example, Georgia gets more points against Florida in the FPI model because Kirby is entering his fifth season at Georgia while Mullen enters only his third at Florida. (Conversely, this same metric hurts Georgia vs. Alabama.) And because Georgia has won the last three head-to-head games. Given these two model assumptions, it’s pretty amazing that Florida’s win probability in Jax is as high was it is.
ESPN’s FPI has no way to measure player development. To see evidence of how wrong it can be on this count, check out the 2020 win probabilities for Kentucky. While the ultimate outcomes may not be off, I think the probabilities definitely are.
Nash, I’m in Nashville in a month. Last time I was there I ate at Martins barbecue. I thought it to be pretty good. Is there another place you recommend? Thanks in advance
Marsh, I get asked this a lot so I already have a list. I live about 28 miles/35 minutes south of downtown Nashville on I-65, in Thompsons Station. But before the pandemic I had business in downtown Nashville about once a week and I’ve lived here for almost five years. I’ve eaten multiple times in each of these places.
Martin’s is kind of like Sonny’s in Gainesville after Sonny Tillman sold the company in the 90s. It’s become a corporate chain, but the quality’s still pretty good. The original Martin’s is located at 7238 Nolensville Road, Nolensville 37135. It’s about 14 miles SSE of downtown Nashville on 41A.
Peg Leg Porker
Memphis-style BBQ. On the southside of the railroad tracks, just southwest of the Nashville Convention Center.
903 Gleaves St, Nashville, TN 37203
Gabby’s Burgers and Fries
493 Humpries Street, Nashville 37203
A hole in the wall lunch spot just south of downtown with fantastic burgers. Very cramped seating, so may be takeout only right now.
Jack’s Bar-B-Que
416 Broadway, Nashville 37203
The oldest BBQ restaurant in Nashville, three or four doors up from Tootsie’s on Broadway. Can be overrun with tourists, but good.
The Loveless Cafe
A hole in the wall roadside restaurant about 13 miles WSW of downtown Nashville, at the north end of the Natchez Trace Parkway (a beautiful drive). Authentic Southern chicken and biscuits.
8400 TN-100, Nashville 37221
Maggiano’s Little Italy
3106 West End Avenue, Nashville 37203
A chain Italian restaurant but pretty good. A bit less than half a mile west of Vanderbilt Stadium. This is in a restaurant district adjacent to Vanderbilt. Just up the street on West End are also BrickTops and Stoney River Steakhouse. I have only eaten at the Cool Springs locations (below), but they were good.
Blue Moon Waterfront Grille
525 Basswood Drive, Nashville, TN 37209
About 5 miles west of downtown Nashville. Food is just OK, but it’s the closest thing Nashville has to a Florida waterfront bar.
Morton’s Steakhouse
618 Church Street, Nashville 37219
Downtown for business dinners; very expensive but usually very good.
If you’re staying in the Franklin area on the south side of Nashville, these are in the Cool Springs Galleria area, about 13 miles south of downtown Nashville on I-65; all moderately expensive:
Stoney River Steakhouse
Best steak I’ve had in the last five years was here.
1726 Galleria Boulevard, Franklin 37067
J. Alexander’s
Nice upscale brick and wood restaurant for lunch and online.
1726 Galleria Boulevard, Franklin 37067
Bricktops
1576 West McEwen Drive, Franklin 37067
Downtown Franklin:
Merridee’s
Breakfast and lunch
110 4th Avenue South, Franklin 37064
(About 16 miles south of downtown Nashville on I-65)
It looks like the Nashville Gator Club is watching games this year at Party Fowl, a chicken and beer sports bar type place about two miles north of the International Airport at 2620 Lebanon Pike, but I don’t know how that’s going to be with social distancing. I won’t be there, as it’s about 45 minutes from me.
Nash, thanks for the great information. It’s appreciated immensely.
Right. No QB, new offensive line, new coordinator, new offense, RB that can’t make lateral cuts…
I mean if the gators don’t win………..
Reshuffled O line with 2 or 3 new starters
New OC
New system
New & inexperienced QB
Nash did mention that about White, I don’t really know.
You forgot shortened season with no spring practice and the QB that took most of those few snaps decided to bail at the last minute.
So yeah I like our chances
Man I was feeling pretty optimistic about our season overall and our chances vs florida but now I worry if we will even be able to play a game. reports had 57 players on the team unable to practice yesterday. had 44 out Saturday and couldn’t have a scheduled scrimmage. Right now they are expecting to get 20-22 of the 25 practices in and sounds like substantial players missing significant numbers of practices. If you cant practice you could pull a navy in any games you play. Also apparently UT is following health dept guidelines for tracing quarantines which is the vast majority of unavailable players and some other SEC teams are not and their tracing quarantines are much more lax. I don’t know which teams those are but it could make for quite a difference in preparation between two teams. Hopefully we make it to the florida game and by then have had enough players return it doesn’t matter. The early games may be cancelled or be massacres if we/other teams cant practice, unless both teams in play are in similar situations. Crazy Town.
Dude you sound like a woman.
My apologies if you are.
ESPN uses FPI to predict. Coaches use expertise to coach. Players use skill to play. Circumstance, weather, a virus, and luck, good or bad, messes all those things up. Talk ends soon. Play begins.
Conference should have some minimum rule for how to keep players safe from Covid each team should be able to add protections but not take away to insure the players are safe for the season. This year will be unique and there could be some surprises. Talkin season is almost over and it’ll be time to show what you have. Not sure where everyone is this year as the run up is different. Since the comparison here is what Florida is predicted and UGA is the only team loss by that metric. The DL of UGA is going to be stout. The new offense may just be finding their feet by that game. Florida is going to have a lot of weapons that should also be hitting their stride by then. Should be the best game in Jax in some time. It’ll be the first one in years I may not go to. Depending on what they let in for fans.
Here’s to no cancellations and not injuries. Here’s to the Gators comming out on top.
How the bloody hell does UF have LESS of a % chance of beating Tennessee than it does against Arkansas this year? Arkansas has a QB, a good one at that, Tennessee doesn’t. Arkansas has a real head coach, maybe not a good one (at least yet) but Tennessee doesn’t.
Exactly how do they pick these anyways, the good ol ESPN method of darts on the side of a barn?
For one thing UT is a road game and Arky is at home, the other thing is no one expects much from Arky