ESPN’s FPI predicts the outcome of every game on Florida’s 2024 schedule
By Andrew Olson
Published:
Florida’s 2024 SEC opponents were revealed in June 2023 and scheduled in December. It had previously been established that UF’s nonconference schedule was set to include Miami, UCF and Florida State. While there’s never an easy SEC schedule, the conference didn’t do the Gators any favors when it set a slate of Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss.
Since the initial June reveal, much has been made of the challenges ahead for Billy Napier’s squad. The Gators face teams ranked No. 1, No. 4, No. 6, No. 10, No. 13, No. 15, No. 19 and No. 20 in the initial AP Top 25.
Florida is 11-14 in 2 seasons under Napier. It’s no secret that there is a lot of pressure on Napier to manage his first winning season in Gainesville while facing the most difficult schedule in the country.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has post projections for every game on UF’s schedule. Here are the FPI’s win probability projections for every Florida game:
- Aug. 31: vs. Miami – 57.5% chance to win
- Sept. 7: vs. Samford – 98.4%
- Sept. 14: vs. Texas A&M – 50%
- Sept. 21: at Mississippi State – 63%
- Oct. 5: vs. UCF – 67.5%
- Oct. 12: at Tennessee – 29.9%
- Oct. 19: vs. Kentucky – 65.9%
- Nov. 2: vs. Georgia (Jacksonville) – 14.6%
- Nov. 9: at Texas – 13.9%
- Nov. 16: vs. LSU – 46.2%
- Nov. 23: vs. Ole Miss – 47.4%
- Nov. 30: at Florida State – 39.2%
It’s rare to see an exact 50-50 projection from the FPI, but that’s the case for the Florida-Texas A&M game. In the other 11 games, FPI projections have the Gators going 5-6.
Napier has been linked to the hot seat since last November, when Florida finished on a 5-game losing skid after a 5-2 start. Whether the Gators avoid missing a bowl game in back-to-back seasons may determine if Napier is able to keep his job. A 5-7 regular-season finish would extend UF’s streak of losing seasons to 4 years.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Florida’s regular-season win total for 2024 has an over/under of 4.5. Five wins would cash the over, but fans would not be joining bettors in celebrating that outcome.
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Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.
