ESPN's FPI predicts the outcome of Florida at Mississippi State in Week 4
ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts the outcome of every college football game every week. The model’s predictions for Week 4 have now been released, including for an SEC matchup between Florida and Mississippi State.
Both Florida and Mississippi State have had disastrous seasons, but someone has to win this game. According to FPI, this is basically a coin-flip game, with the Gators having a 52.8% chance to win while the Bulldogs have a 47.2% chance.
In Week 1, the Gators were annihilated at home by the Miami Hurricanes. In Week 2, the Gators got a win against FCS Samford, but the good feelings wouldn’t last as Texas A&M came to Gainesville in Week 3 and beat the Gators 33-20.
Things haven’t gone much better for the Bulldogs. The team got a Week 1 win over Eastern Kentucky but lost in Week 2 against Arizona State. The team hit a new low in Week 3, getting blown out by Toledo at home.
Both teams desperately need a win in Week 4 to try and salvage something out of this season. The schedules are brutal for both of these teams, so wins may be hard to come by as the season progresses.
After Week 4, the Gators have matchups against UCF, No. 6 Tennessee, Kentucky, and No. 2 Georgia. The Bulldogs have to play No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Georgia, No. 25 Texas A&M, and Arkansas following the Week 4 matchup with Florida.
This will be the first matchup between the SEC teams since 2018. The Gators won that matchup in Starkville 13-6 and have won 34 of the 55 all-time matchups.
The Gators and Bulldogs will kick off from Starkville on Saturday at Noon ET.
Why is Billy Napier still employed?
I agree mookie… I am really shocked the announcement was made today that he was out
Have you been reading the news he might be fired tomorrow
If I was Billy, I would loved to be fired and walk away with $26 mil
Mookie, this will take time for the following reasons:
1. $26 million is a lot of money. $13 million is due immediately. There are unconfirmed reports that the money has been arranged.
2. Due to #1 above, an extensive legal review of Billy Napier’s complicity in any recruiting misdeeds — which likely hasn’t been done from the perspective of a for-cause firing until now, to no small degree because of a belief that this season would go much better to date than it has — is almost certainly underway.
3. It isn’t just the $26 million. It’s the likely payments and contract for a replacement coach, and the backstop NIL money to keep certain core players from bolting at the end of the season. So the $26 million need is probably closer to $40 million.
4. Due to the pattern of recent hires, the next coach will need to be a “name” FBS coach, both to assuage an angry fan base whose butts are needed in stadium seats, and to have any shot at hanging onto D.J. Lagway, L.J. McCray, et al. Said name coach may not be available until January or even February, given the new 12-team playoff format.
5. Which, among other things, complicates the December signing period.
6. What happens for the rest of the season is not a small matter. The right side of the offensive line is really bad and unfortunately, that can’t be fixed mid-season… although it can be schemed around to some degree. You can’t change the offensive system mid-season, although the play-calling could be more creative.
7. The defensive coaching is really bad. We have talented defensive players but they are out of position way too often. That’s coaching (either too much complexity or too little coaching). Guess there was a reason both Baylor and Auburn fired Ron Roberts. This is a tough problem to fix during the season, although bye weeks can help. Marsh has suggested that Coach Mike Peterson would be a good interim defensive coordinator. Peterson is a longtime Gator who played for Spurrier.
cool, calm approach! i think you really nailed it with the first three points.
as a side note, it seems pretty evident now that napier won’t work out. it’d be a bad look for anyone within the uf program to have sent feelers to agents, etc. immediately after the um game. if that one game had pushed anyone over the edge, then common sense would tell you that they were already over the edge and should have previously made a change. by waiting until now, of which two p4 games have showed how unprepared and outmatched the uf team truly was, then it’s at least defensible to any prospecting coach that you’re looking to hire that you really tried to work it with napier, but the results simply say that you should cut ties and you’re now reaching out to them to get a quick jump on everyone else….and that they’re the priority.
in the interim, and for some form of stability, napier should still be employed and coaching that team on saturdays. any actual termination after week 3 would be a horrific look on uf.
Good thinking, PT. While CBN being terminal is not in question, at least preserve the institution and save the players – giving him a decent funeral when the time comes. In the meantime, we support the team and do no further harm.
I really appreciate all these points and perspectives, a lot of them make sense. I want whatever will be best for the team, whatever it ends up being.
Thanks for providing the business executive perspective, Nash. With so much emotion floating around right now, it’s far too easy to overlook…..but nonetheless all part of the requirement to be institutionally deliberate
You think there’s emotion floating around here? Check out the Swamp247 board.
I appreciate the perspective. The one quibble I have is with the thought of pursuing a “for cause” dismissal based on the NIL stuff that seems to be mostly sour grapes. Maybe there’s something there, but the lawyers will quickly eat up more than $26 million to fight it.
Then again, it’s not my money.
I don’t know if any NIL money will keep players on a sinking ship. I guess that depends on the coach and (please!) new GM that should also be hired. Certainly any top performers will be recruited heavily. It’s going to be a mess either way.
To that point, it’s amazing that in his 3rd season, Napier has the program in a bigger mess than at any point since Urban Liar left. I know one person here is bathing in Schadenfreude; I think the rest of us are just sad. In my case, it’s because it’s going to take 3-5 more years to dig out of this hole. Few things are worse for the sports fan than no hope, and there’s just no hope coming anytime soon.
(And please dear Lord, not Lane Kiffin. If we were disappointed in Meyer leaving for “greener” pastures, wait until Lane leaves for whatever shiny bauble is placed in front of him in a few years.)
NIL money can help, but a lot will depend upon the name of the coach who is hired, and a big enough name to keep elite guys around probably won’t be available until early next year.
The talent is better than post-Mullen, although it is an unbalanced roster like it was under Muschamp: Billy has under-recruited for the offensive line.
Mookie, you pretty much nailed it right there. Kiffin, IMO, would be a desperation hire for quick wins but not for long term restoration. If that’s what the administration wants, so be it and for enough scratch Kiffin might even do it. We have zero input to those types of decisions anyway. The only thing I would say from this distance is that if you hire a man who is all skill but lacking character, you’re setting yourself up for more headaches of a different kind that nobody wants or needs.
Your comment about digging out of the hole is likewise relevant. It’s possible to do that in a shorter period of time with the right person, but I’m wondering now in view of Florida’s history over the last 1.3 decades what type of “right person” would want to take on such an enterprise in the first place?
In retrospect, I probably need to install a Prozac Lick at my own front door.
there’s a bigger problem here – and it’s stricklin – the prez hires the AD and it’s unlikely that interim prez fuchs will make any change – so stricklin will be making the decision and who has confident that the third time will be a charm
Stricklin may end up making the official decision, but the big boosters will have a veto on this one. Stricklin’s core competency is fundraising, so he will be very attuned to what this group wants.
“Big name coach”? Good luck.
I recognize your meaning, but you and I may be surprised. While the culture over the last 10 years is not conducive to getting the right hire, based on resources alone Florida is still attractive to many quality guys.
I don’t know Doc. Maybe. Color me doubtful. It’s such a mess.
Best hope Coach Napier can show enough improvement to keep his job. IMO.
Never say never – yadda yadda yadda – but were CBN actually able to do that, this would have been the season in which he started doing it. It pains me to be that negative, JTF, I know I’m supposed to apply the human potential model or whatever we call it this week since I wound up a shrink, but at the end of the day if anything I’m a realist. We’ve had ample sampling by now, have hit the point of central limits, and while there are many cardinal attributes to his make-up….it’s time to apply the 40-70 rule that even a shyt-in-the-neck young infantry lieutenant learns on day one of IOBC: Make the @$!% decision and stop all the analysis-paralysis.
You know, because the future of the free world depends on it. And stuff.
As if our opinions have any bearing at all, right? :)
Actually, with the recent facilities upgrades, Bear Bryant’s “sleeping giant” quote is more applicable than ever. And Josh Pate agrees, for whatever that’s worth.
Many here at SDS rightfully make fun of Napier’s “infrastructure” comments. However, there is validity to the concept. Lack of competitive “infrastructure” measured against what OU gave Stoops and what Bama gave Saban is what drove both SOS and UM out of Gainesville.
Consider Florida to be in a very similar position now to where Texas was when they hired Sark. We’re the flagship university in the state of Florida, which happens to be one of the top three most HS talent rich states. We have a loyal fan base that routinely puts 90,000 butts in the stands and drives up TV ratings for every game. We have thousands of wealthy donors that can fund major HC contracts (and buyouts,) as well as NIL. We now have state-of-the-art facilities and a large staff to run a top ten program. We’re in the SEC and have a history of winning championships in this young century.
What we don’t have today is a competent HC, or an AD that has any clue as to what one looks like. Both of those deficiencies can be remedied.
It’s time to get started on finding those remedies.
Every big name school has tremendous facilitates now. UF built a beautiful facility, no doubt, but is it that much better than most big schools? NIL, although not a factor much longer, is not a checkmark on the pro side for a coach entertaining a move, and neither is the salary potential. Recruiting is national, not local, so not much advantage there either. There is plenty of evidence to support that.
In short, I see no reason a “big name” coach is leaving their school to go to UF.
As a UGA fan, I am glad to see Kiffin doing so well at Ole Miss.
You say recruiting is national, but the numbers paint a different picture. The majority of the HS recruits at top ten schools come from within a 400 mile radius of those school. That is especially true for SEC schools.
All other things being equal, HS recruits prefer to stay closer to home. The same is not true for portal transfers, but there’s a huge difference in average maturity between those two groups.
I’m not a Kiffin fan, but he’s a big name coach who would consider UF a step up from where he is now. So would Drinkwitz just to name another.
We’ll see how this situation plays out, but I’m fairly sure the next Gator HC will come with HC experience at another P4 school.
I don’t say it, The Athletic published some facts about it. This is just one of them.
“There has been a 40 percent increase in top-100 recruits deciding to go out-of-state for college compared to a decade ago. The small number of true annual College Football Playoff contenders influences this, without question, as does top recruits’ interest in linking up at those programs and trying to form super teams. But the trend is also a product of recruits being more eager to move — or less willing to settle and stay home — and coaches happily straying from their backyards to get the best players they can find.
Newly hired coaches love to say they’re determined to put up a fence around their state and lock it down, but they can’t. Today’s blue-chip recruits are unafraid of going anywhere, seemingly motivated more by where a program can get them than obligations to old-fashioned ideals like state pride.
The chasm between the haves and have-nots in college football only grows wider when the best programs can have whoever they want.”
Just wondering who everyone thinks Florida will hire after they fire Kiffin in a few years?
ha. i really don’t see a mutual interest between uf and kiffin.
idk if he has any potential interest in getting back into coaching, or if he’d be good with the drastically different culture and geography in coming to the SE, but chris petersen…in a lead position at uf could make some sense. surround him with some aggressive recruiters
If FL wants to fire Napier, they better hurry up. I have a bad feeling we are going to make Billy look good this weekend in Starkville.
I’m going to go ahead and predict FL wins by 20.
Not if Mertz gets most of the snaps. The Gators won’t even score 20 if that happens.
Even if the lack of adequate preparation is a rate limiting step, I say the talent on this team should still score enough to win. Still, I’m not making any predictions here on out.
Neal, as the late great Mark Twain once said, “History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.”
The parallels here between Napier today and Zook exactly 20 years ago are spooky. Both are great recruiters. Both are players’ coaches. Both are likable fellows. Both are, in different ways, poor communicators vis-a-vi the media.
Now, here’s the big one, both headed into Starkville, MS in their 3rd season, firmly on the hot seat, to face an MSU squad the Gators should beat soundly. MSU had lost to Maine in 2004 and just got hammered by Toledo last week, both in Starkville.
Zook inexplicably lost to MSU back in 2004 and two memorable quotes came out of that travesty:
Pat Dooley -“Florida is worse than Maine!”
Jeromy Foley – “That which must be done eventually should be done immediately.”
I’m not saying the Gators are going to lose to MSU this Saturday, but…
Emilio, that is exactly the type of resonance that I’ve been unsuccessfully trying to banish from my thoughts! But yes, it’s spooky.
The only difference is that Zook replaced a true legend, while Napier replaced a legend-in-his-own-mind. Of course, after Zook we got it right for a few years before we started getting it wrong again on four successive attempts. From that limited perspective, with all due respect to karma, what are the odds that we finally get it right again? Asking for a friend, of course. :)
Well, there’s another spooky parallel between Napier and Zook. The guy who “got it right” after Zook is being seriously discussed as a possible replacement for Napier!
Did you guys watch MSU play Toledo? ‘Twas rough. That said, I hope your pessimistic Florida predictions are right.
Jeez Emilio, you’re just a bundle of joy today with your amazing grasp of all things ironic. And here I gleefully sat in the basement of Stately Trent Mannor – in my underwear nonetheless – munching on Moon Pies and huffing Air Wick while thinking that UM was just a wicked rumor started by Leeland.
Please let him coach one more game. I believe with him coaching my Bulldogs are almost guaranteed a victory this Saturday.
Now that is certainly a perspective I hadn’t considered, so we’ll grant your wish and the 2024 Gators are at your service. :)