Florida football: 5 bold predictions for Gators' game against Vanderbilt
Florida takes their high-flying offense on the road this weekend when the No. 6 Gators face Vanderbilt (noon ET, ESPN). Florida has won 6 consecutive games over Vanderbilt and 28 of the past 29 between the programs. With Florida entering Saturday’s contest as 31.5-point favorites over the winless Commodores, anything less than a big Gators win would be surprising.
Still, there are some interesting storylines headed into the game.
SDS dubbed Kyle Trask a Heisman candidate before the season, and the comments sections and Twitter mentions were a chorus of laughter and skepticism. Our take looks pretty good now, with Trask rising to the top tier of Heisman contenders with Alabama’s Mac Jones and touchdown machine Najee Harris, Ohio State’s Justin Fields and Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence as the season heads down the stretch. Can Trask build on his resume in Nashville? He’ll have every opportunity.
Meanwhile, Will Muschamp’s dismissal at South Carolina proves that not even COVID-19 can spare embattled coaches from the sword of Damocles in the mighty SEC. Then again, this is Vanderbilt, where Derek Mason’s players graduate and play hard. Is that enough to spare him at least 1 more season? Mason says it hasn’t been discussed yet, but another huge loss could swing things in the wrong direction for the veteran head coach. The Commodores have improved the past couple of games, but it might be too little, too late.
Here are 5 bold predictions for the Gators and Commodores.
Another 4-touchdown performance from Trask
How good has Trask been in 2020? Last year’s Heisman winner, Joe Burrow, threw an astonishing 60 touchdown passes once you include the College Football Playoff. In SEC play, Burrow threw 32 touchdowns in 9 games. Trask has 28 through 6 in 2020. Burrow threw 4 touchdowns or more in 4 SEC games last season. Trask has thrown 4 touchdowns or more in every game that Florida has played in 2020. Trask will do it again Saturday and equal Burrow’s 32 SEC touchdown passes 2 games ahead of schedule in the process.
Honestly, a 3rd Trask game with 5 touchdowns or more wouldn’t be surprising.
The Gators rank 3rd nationally in passing efficiency and 2nd in success rate offensively, and Vanderbilt is just woefully overmatched against the Florida passing game. The Commodores rank 104th in S&P+ defensive efficiency, 88th in yards allowed per pass attempt and 110th in sack percentage, which means they can’t pressure the quarterback — the one thing you can do that occasionally bothers Trask.
It all sets up for a monster day for the Gators quarterback, and you know Dan Mullen will let him wing it with the Heisman now a distinct possibility.
Dameon Pierce breaks out for 100 yards rushing
Florida doesn’t have a 1-running back setup, as Mullen is confident in any of the 3-man rotation of Pierce, Malik Davis and freshman Nay’Quan Wright.
But it has been noticeable the past 2 weeks that Pierce seems to be slightly ahead of the other 2 in terms of between-the-tackle touches. Pierce ranks 1st in the SEC in average yards after contact, edging out Auburn’s Tank Bigsby, and he has grinded out 69 yards against Arkansas and 52 against a tough Georgia defense in the past 2 weeks.
Florida’s ability to establish the run with Pierce — he collected more than 60 of his 131 yards in the past 2 games in the 1st quarter– has helped open things up even more for the passing game. The Gators aren’t a prolific rushing offense, but they run successfully enough (49 percent success rate) to make you respect it.
He may not be lighting up the box score in Floridas RBBC, but I'm still a fan of #UF Jr RB Dameon Pierce.
5'10, 215 lbs. Runs hard, has some wiggle to him and sports a decent pair of hands. One of my under-the-radar #devy favorites. #C2C pic.twitter.com/5lYEAlTvSM
— Cory P. (@FF_Guitarist) November 15, 2020
Pierce doesn’t light up the box score, but as the video above demonstrates, he runs hard and is versatile. I think he’ll finally hit the 100-yard mark against a Commodores defense that surrendered 308 yards rushing to Kentucky a week ago.
‘Grimes Time’ continues
A big offseason question I had for the Gators was whether they’d seamlessly replace one of the most productive quartets of senior wide receivers in school history. Credit wide receivers coach Billy Gonzales — the Gators have answered the bell.
A big reason why the Florida receiving corps is far more than All-American Kyle Pitts is the outstanding play of senior Trevon Grimes. Grimes has been terrific in Florida’s past 2 games in particular, which has been enormous since Pitts left the Georgia game with a concussion midway through the 2nd quarter. In those 2 contests, Grimes has caught 8 passes for 131 yards and 3 touchdowns, including this otherworldly touchdown catch against Georgia.
🏆🏆🏆Life and Football🏆🏆🏆
Trevon Grimes (@Trevongrimes8) a WR for @GatorsFB is a Playmaker.
He’s definitely going to hear his name called in the 2021 @NFLDraft
🎥: @GatorsFB https://t.co/RtQKXQk4IY pic.twitter.com/Ud45pdx68u
— Life and Football (@LifeandBall) November 15, 2020
Always blessed with elite (4.5) speed, Grimes ability to go get the ball in 1-on-1 matchups has been immense for Florida for two seasons, and scouts are starting to notice. He’s earned an invite to the Senior Bowl this offseason and should continue to post big numbers against Vanderbilt this weekend.
Cam Johnson has a day for the ‘Dores
A big reason the Vanderbilt offense has managed to start scoring points (24 per game over the last 3 contests) has been the outstanding play of wide receiver Cam Johnson. He shouldn’t get too much credit for his 14-reception performance against Ole Miss, as the Rebels defense can’t stop air. But a 10-reception on 12-target, 114-yard performance against a salty Mississippi State defense is impressive, and he added a touchdown this past weekend against a good Kentucky secondary.
Florida’s secondary remains mediocre, with good play from the corners too often negated by safety issues. The Gators rank 95th in opposing passing yards per game and 80th in yards allowed per pass attempt. Issues on the back end are compounded because the Gators don’t get to the quarterback at Todd Grantham’s usual elite level — Florida ranks only 27th in sack percentage after ranking in the top 10 in the first 2 years of the Grantham era.
Vanderbilt freshman quarterback Ken Seals has been a bright spot in a tough year, and his chemistry with Johnson, the hometown hero from Brentwood, is encouraging. He’ll hook up with Johnson several times on Saturday, allowing Vanderbilt to put points on the board and keep pressure on the Gators.
Bet the over (68) … if you’re into that sort of thing
If 68 seems like a lot of points, consider this: Florida has played only 2 games under that number this season. Vanderbilt? They’ve given up 38 points to a lowly Kentucky offense and 54 to the high-octane Ole Miss offense. They don’t discriminate in allowing touchdowns. Those figures, coupled with Florida’s inability to prevent big plays on the back end, make it safe to think we’re looking at a 49-21 or 56-21 type game, which will get over the Las Vegas number.
I kinda feel bad for Vandy this weekend. Florida is going to roll in a big way
Man I love me some Pierce. He is quickly becoming one of my favorite RB’s in UF history. Run’s hard like Fred Taylor and DeShawn Wynn. Not as beast mode as Scarlett was but still, he is violent at the point of contact. A real old school football player. Love it. Will be a deadly back field next year with addition of Bowman and Jones.
Huge Pierce fan here as well. Have you ever seen interviews with him? Seems like he is all class in addition to being an excellent player.
Yes and funny too. He has great promo’s and one liners from that inside the swamp show.
He and Perine are very similar. I think Perine is a little more athletic and Pierce hits a little harder, bur I like them both. We’ve actually gone from being worried about running back to being loaded for the next few years.
Funny how that changes when the O-line finally gets a push.
Trask is setting the bar.
Nobody is gonna watch this game.
Yeah, I’m sure, nobody (well except the people that wanna see Florida crush Vanderbilt (including me and almost everyone else)) will watch that game. Plus, you already know that the game vs. Vanderbilt last year was a complete 56-0 blowout, yet it was exciting to watch. Also, stop being so sour UsmcDawg, we already bet you, so of course you hate the Gators anyways. lol
It’s going to be fun watching yo guys unravel.
I couldn’t care less who watches or doesn’t. Go Gators!
Actually, I think viewership at 11:00 am will be pretty high because of Trask, with a major drop in the middle of the third or so… which is exactly what I really want to see: more sustained series for Jones and maybe some Anthony Richardson.
I really want to see more of Richardson. He’s a Dak Prescott type.
You are so right. Everyone will all be tuned into the UGA vs. Miss State game. Should be real turnover fest with JT Daniels throwing it around. Then it will be thrilling to watch yall hand the ball off 200 times. The fans love to see that potent UGA offense. Can not wait to see the final score. 14-10 UGA. Should be a barn burner.
2Bits, you’re enjoying this.
Never have been a fan of the good advice “Just let it go.” Ask my wife.
If you have ever coached a youth league football team where you played the team comprised of all the leftover players that had no team until one was made at the last minute for them, you know what Dan Mullen has on his mind this week.
Whereas the youth league coach could call off the dogs after the first quarter when his team is up 27-0 and will eventually win 40-0, Mullen really cannot afford to let up so quickly if he wants Florida to stay in contention for the Playoff and Trask to stay among the leaders for the Heisman.
Too many of the non-South voters will only look at the boxscore. If they see that Trask was 15-17 for 202 yards and 3 touchdowns, and then Justin, Trevor and Mack throw for 350-450 yards, Trask takes a back seat for only getting 202 yards against the second worst P5 team.
Trask will be left in the game until he’s at least topped 300 yards and probably 5 TDs. Meanwhile, Seals will find the going tough against Florida’s defense and probably toss one or two picks that will lead to more points for the Gators.
Ironically, Florida wasn’t this good last year, and Vanderbilt was better than they are this year, but there isn’t much chance that the Gators will top 56-0. They could win 49-7 and dominate the game even more than they did last year, especially if the score is 42-0 at halftime.
It won’t really help Florida. Who can’t beat an opponent in a game of strategy when the deck is heavily stacked in your favor? Give me 3 extra queens in lieu of pawns, and replace your queen and bishops with 3 pawns and good luck trying to beat me in chess even if I am just an average to slightly above average player. Vandy is lucky to have a rook or knight. They have no bishops or queen. They should be in the checkers division.
I feel ya.
Thing is Trask can get the 5 TDs and the 300 yards in the first half alone. I expect to see a lot of Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson in the 2nd half. Looking forward to that
Me too.
Trask will probably only play one or two series to start the second half; just enough to ensure the offense can stay crisp after halftime.
These are the games that make Saban the great coach that he is. It’s very hard to motivate for a game like this and yet he won’t allow his players to take that team for granted. Hopefully, the Gators can do the same. They should win on talent alone, but that opposing team still wants to squash your head.
I was impressed with how Florida came out last week, and then sustained it after halftime.
I’m seeing our defense flying to the ball in the 2nd half. That holds good for us because we can definitely come from a deficit. ( Bama in conf championship)
I’m starting to believe it can happen. And the parallels to 2019 LSU that seemed ridiculous maybe two to four weeks ago don’t seem ridiculous now.
If we can plug the gaps with our safeties we can do this. I say let the young kids go. They’re hungry and will make mistakes but the aggressiveness they play with will force turnovers.
That is what we are lacking. If we can force 2 turnovers a game that is a winning situation at least 90% of the time. Especially with our offense