Florida football: 5 things that concern me most about LSU
Florida chomped past No. 7 Auburn Saturday in The Swamp, extending the SEC’s longest active winning streak to 10 games.
The Gators beat a favored Auburn team by riding a dominant performance from their championship-caliber defense and creating just enough explosive plays on offense to grind out 24 points against an excellent Auburn defense.
Florida’s win gave the Gators a big-time victory over an Auburn team that arrived in Gainesville a media darling, boasting what was believed to be the best résumé (wins over Oregon and at Texas A&M) in college football over the season’s first month.
As noted above, Florida wasn’t given much of a chance to win — but won by double digits, which you’d think would have earned the Gators a bit of national respect as a legitimate threat to upend Georgia in the SEC East. Instead, the Gators continue to face doubters and cynics — even among those who were in love with Auburn before they were suffocated by the Gators Saturday.
Florida is still not a top 10 team. Great defense but turnover prone, penalty-ridden, bad OL teams are not top 10.
Great win for UF though. I was dead wrong for thinking Bo Nix was good enough as a freshman to be even decent in The Swamp.
— George Wrighster III (@georgewrighster) October 5, 2019
Florida’s reward for its victory over No. 7 Auburn?
How about a second consecutive week with College GameDay on the scene and a night game in Baton Rouge against No. 5 LSU?
That’s life in the SEC, and a big reason the Gators’ strength of schedule (including future opponents) ranks No. 1 in the country.
Fan being short for “fanatic,” most LSU and Florida fans will dismiss each other’s strengths and accomplishments, making bold claims about the superiority of their team.
This article seeks to douse those hot takes with a bit of perspective and statistical reality, suggesting that both teams are good and have strengths worthy of caution and respect.
But it isn’t just media and opposing fans who still doubt the Gators.
The oddsmakers don’t like the Gators, having installed LSU as a double-digit favorite Saturday night. That line seems a bit extreme, especially given the fact that that these storied programs haven’t played a game decided by more than a touchdown since 2013.
That said, LSU will without question be Florida’s biggest challenge yet.
Here are 5 things that should concern the Gators about LSU.
Joe Burrow is good at football
Yes, Florida is 1-0 against Joe Burrow. You can bet Joe Burrow knows that as well. He’s been waiting for this game for a year.
Burrow will be, by some distance, the best quarterback the Gators have faced this season. The transfer has put up video game numbers in his senior season, deservedly catapulting himself into the Heisman discussion. Through 5 games, Burrow’s completion percentage is an astounding 78.4%. He has thrown for 1,864 yards, averaged 10.3 yards per attempt (7th in the country) and thrown 22 touchdown passes (4+ a game).
Burrow isn’t just an outstanding quarterback. He’s also the heart and soul of LSU’s program renaissance under Ed Orgeron.
Whether he’s wearing Road Runner socks to SEC Media Days, dropping a dime a drive after taking a bone-crunching hit in the Fiesta Bowl …
Joe Burrow with an absolute DIME 🎯 pic.twitter.com/CU7IHCbApb
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) January 1, 2019
or outdueling Texas All-American candidate Sam Ehlinger in Austin — Burrow has swag, and is the type of leader any program in college football would want.
Have you seen those LSU wide receivers?
Florida’s receivers and tight ends have rightly received acclaim and attention this season, and they were a huge reason Florida piled up 400 yards of offense against an outstanding Auburn defense.
But LSU has some frisbee-catching dogs in their own right, with 3 receivers (Justin Jefferson, Terrace Marshall and Ja’Marr Chase) all collecting 20 receptions or more through only 5 games.
Of this trio, Chase, a longtime Florida commit who flipped to LSU, has been an absolute terror, averaging 19.2 yards a catch and looking so dominant he has received shoutouts from Pro Football Hall of Famer Randy Moss on his weekly “You’ve got Mossed” NFL Countdown segment.
The Tigers have the talent and speed to spread the ball around and will pose a big challenge to a Florida secondary that will enter Baton Rouge leading the nation in interceptions.
LSU’s elite secondary can negate Florida’s greatest strength
OK, OK. The LSU secondary hasn’t looked great this season. The Tigers don’t rank in the top 30 in America in pass efficiency defense and are in the bottom-half of the SEC in passing yards allowed per attempt. Nevertheless, they had a big game Saturday against Utah State’s talented quarterback Jordan Love, intercepting him 3 times and limiting a good Aggies offense to 130 yards through the air. This was progress just in time for the Gators, who boast the best set of wide receivers LSU will play outside of the Alabama game.
The smart money remains on LSU’s talent evening the poor early season statistical returns out anyway — this is just too talented a group to fail. Grant Delpit might be the most versatile defensive back in America and he’s joined by true freshman Derek Stingley, whose 8 pass breakups, 10 pass deflections and 42% opponent completion rate lead the SEC.
Florida’s strength offensively is the passing game and its wideouts and tight ends: LSU has the Jimmies and Joes to cover them and limit what the Gators do best.
Tiger Stadium will be a madhouse
Florida knows all about a big time environment and homefield advantage.
Gus Malzahn acknowledged The Swamp impacted his team Saturday, with freshman quarterback Bo Nix very clearly rattled by the constant roar of the Gators faithful. Likewise, Joe Burrow said The Swamp was “the most fierce road environment” he played in last season.
Now it is LSU’s turn.
The Tigers will have College GameDay in town and Florida gets a night kick in Baton Rouge for the first time since an epic game between unbeaten teams in 2015.
Starting Friday night, Tigers fans will work themselves into a frenzy and the Gators will certainly face an adverse environment unlike any they’ve seen this season.
Tiger Stadium at night is one of those special places in college football, a tall order for a visiting team under any circumstance. It will be even more difficult given it will be Kyle Trask’s first road game as Florida’s starting quarterback.
Florida can’t turn the ball over at LSU
The Gators have been far too generous giving the ball away this season, committing 13 turnovers, including 4 fumbles against Auburn on Saturday. Thanks to their tremendous defense, the Gators have limited the damage that’s come from their generosity — holding opponents to only 16 points off turnovers. That’s all well and good, but Florida is less likely to get away with it playing an elite offense on the road.
LSU’s defense has only produced 7 turnovers, but the Tigers always boast one of the nation’s best secondaries and the Gators will need to protect the ball to have a chance. Thus far, there’s zero evidence the Gators can play a clean football game on offense.
That could spell big trouble in Baton Rouge.
Is Terrace Marshall still out this week?
I don’t believe he is expected back yet.
He won’t be back till alabama…hes a huge part of the offense. most teams like florida can cover two top 2 receivers but 3 is unlikely. Its what makes alabama so dangerous right now.
Marshall practiced today. He may play this weekend.
Kinda like what happened to auburn. They were worried about Jefferson,Grimes,Pitts,andCleveland so Swain had a career day.
Marshall is back for this game!
It would take a very naive UF fan to discredit LSU this far this season. It just feels like burrows revenge lol. I think it will be a really good game but we’d need to lucky bounces to escape death valley with a win.
Thus*
I don’t think any Gator fans are underestimating LSU and all feel very concerned about this game, especially being in Death Valley. The thing I don’t understand though is all the praise they receive about their offense in every article and no one points out the obvious. Their running game statistically is actually worse than the Gators and Burrow is putting up these gaudy numbers against terrible defenses. The highest ranked defense they have faced all season is powerhouse Utah State at 56th in the country in total defense, but they’re 103rd against the pass. Every other defense they have faced hasn’t been higher than 90th in total defense. Burrow wasn’t very good when pressured last season and hasn’t really faced any pressure this season, so no one really knows if he’s improved in that area. We all know he’s going to see a lot of pressure on Saturday. I definitely don’t think we’ll be seeing the same gaudy numbers that we’ve seen from them so far and LSU fans thinking they’ll drop 50 is about as cocky as Auburn fans sounded. It should be a great game as I think the Gators match up pretty well against them. If Burrow can continue his dominance against a great defense, then I’ll be the first to heap praise.
Sure I agree that LSU hasnt faced a truly elite defense yet, but to say he isnt playing well under pressure is completely false. If you watched the Texas game then you wouldnt have that same opinion. Our last touchdown in that game is a great example of his ability to escape pass rushers while still remaining in the pocket to throw a perfectly thrown pass for a touchdown on 3rd and 17. Statistically, Florida has had a hair better success running the ball. The point with the offense is go look at how many points we scored last year against anyone versus this year. It’s not even comparable. LSU couldnt score more than 31 points against the FCS team Southeastern last year.
First of all I didn’t say he isn’t playing well against pressure, I said he wasn’t very good against it last season and hasn’t faced much this season. I agree that their offense is much better than last season as far as producing points is concerned. It’s easy to make assumptions based off of what you’ve seen so far, but all of that goes out the window when facing a truly elite defense. Just because he was able to elude pressure and make a throw against the 102nd ranked Texas defense to win the game, doesn’t mean he’s completely erased the issues that plagued him last season. Bo Nix and the Auburn offense looked pretty good coming into the Gator game as well. Everyone thought they were world beaters and then they faced the Gator D and now everyone is saying they’re the same offense from last season. I’m not predicting a Gator win, but I think the offensive numbers are a little misleading right now and certainly shouldn’t be viewed as something you should expect to see this game.
I guess my point by saying that about senior level Burrow is that you really cant compare last season Burrow and our offense to this season. He’s a completely different player in an offense that he’s comfortable playing in that he ran in high school and at Ohio State. That play put us two touchdowns ahead of Texas at that time making Texas have to scramble to score points with a minute left. I dont think anyone thought Auburn was a world beater. Bo Nix was playing well but CLEARLY played like a freshman against Florida. Nix threw some awful interceptions and made some poor choices like running 30 yards behind the line of scrimmage for a sack. Burrow will probably throw an interception against Florida, but wont put LSU in terrible positions like Nix did for Auburn. Florida has an excellent defense, I just think that double digit line around -14 is pretty accurate. Our offense ranked #3 is just that explosive with a #32 ranked defense going up against a #54 offense. Our rushing offense has alot more to be desired and that’s why John Robinson told Coach O to move John Emery and Ty Davis-Price ahead of Lanard Fournette in the depth chart (that’s why Fournette left the team). They’re explosive freshman so I fully expect our run game to progress the more reps they get. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is not an elite back but he’s serving his purpose until our freshman can get more acclimated to college speed.
I hear you, and you have reason to believe that, but let me counter that. You say our running game is worse than florida, but we have been throwing it way more because LSU Finally has a 1st round quarterback. On top of that, we just started to have the running game more and more to ballance out the offence. And you say Joe Burrow has only played terrible defense? Look at Texas, who called themselves DBU, and how many yards did we put up against them? 471. How many Passing Touchdowns? 4. How many yards per rush did Clyde Edwards-Helaire average? 5.8 a carry. You cant argue with the facts, but it will be a good game.
Defensive Rankings of LSU’s opponents this season:
60. Georgia Southern: 380 yards per game
95. Utah State: 422.2 yards per game
104. Texas: 441.8 yards per game
125. Vanderbilt: 503.6 yards per game
If you win in BR, I will be the first UGA fan to admit you are for real and we will have heck of a game on our hands November 2.
If we win, how many UGA fans will just say LSU was overrated?
I know we are away from home but no way are we a two touchdown dog on Saturday. I think we match up better against LSU (besides the run game) then we did with Auburn. Both teams boast great defensive secondaries and Dlines. Both teams have a great receiving core. QB play, rushing yards and big time turnovers will be determine the outcome in a close game. LSU’s offense will not continue put up the points that it has been against our D. It will be a dog fight as usual.
No matter how good either team is, it’s always a close game. I could see LSU scoring 40 points on Florida and Florida scoring a bit more than they did against Auburn. We have taken the first team out at the beginning of the 4th quarter every game besides Texas. As for the Auburn game, I wouldnt have put money on Auburn. True freshman playing at The Swamp against a very good Florida team? Thats hard. Bo Nix just looked lost in that game.
It’s similar for Florida. The 2s and 3s have played a lot of snaps.
I would agree if it was any other circumstance other than Playing IN DEATH VALLEY at 8:00 AT NIGHT.
Only game that has concerned me all year. This should be our toughest game of the year. Keys to the game for UF are Protect Trask and give Burrow no time to pick apart our secondary. I can see UF winning but I dont think we do.
The away team historically plays tough in this game. I think the secondaries and receivers are a wash for the two sides. LSU gets an edge for home field and we get an edge for pass rush.
While Burrow has played great so far, his arm strength could be an issue against a better secondary. And Trask needs to protect the ball better.
I have no score prediction. Should be a fantastic game. I don’t expect either team to win by 13, and LSU’s offensive production will be cut similar to the way Auburn’s was.
I think based on “on the field” play, the Florida secondary has been far superior. Pass rush as well. We can’t get out defensive line healthy at all, and only recently moved delpit from FS back to his SS spot from last season. It was utah st, but seemed to make a world of difference. y’all’s defense gets a big edge from me here. But. I don’t think Trask and the wr’s can hold a candle to what LSU is fielding right now. Hard to pick a score for me too. I think every game is won in the trenches, and both teams have been inconsistent with the exception of the gators defensive ends.
We’ll have to agree to disagree on the wide receivers. I actually think our group is better, and is definitely deeper. You have a great safety and a great corner; we have two great corners.
One thing that’s under-valued about Trask is that he’s been in the meeting room for four years; two years with Mullen. He knows the offense.
In my opinion, Baton Rouge at night is the craziest atmosphere in football. But like I’ve said, the away team usually plays well in this game.
Should be a great game…Zuniga back is huge for yall. Flask will have more time in pocket than he did against auburn. Not sure how you figure your receivers are better though, more experienced yes but no way they are better. You can say they haven’t played any defenses but neither has florida and i think yall maybe have one receiver with 1 100 yard game in swain. Auburn secondary isnt good
Marshall still isn’t ready, which also helps yall.
You can’t really look at stats for the Gator receivers because 6 guys play a lot.
Deeper ya maybe but FL top 3 receviers that are on the field are not better than LSU top 3 receivers on the field.
Again, we can agree to disagree. Don’t know about “better” but UF’s top three will all play in the NFL.
Keep an eye on Pitts too, he has been a mismatch monster against LBs with his size and quickness and Mullen loves utilizing TEs.
No Way, you can’t be serious! Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are NFL Caliber WR’s! If Terrace Marshall is back, ya’ll don’t have a third corner to cover him. Our running back depth is crazy good as well, with 3 good running backs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, John Emery Jr., and Tyrion Davis-Price. Derek Stingley Jr. and Kristian Fulton are two of the best corners in college football, along with Grant Delpit, an NFL Caliber Safety, to hold it down deep. K’Lavon Chaisson is an amazing pass rusher, and you say you have better players on both side of the ball? oh please, show me the facts.
42-10 LSU. Florida can’t score on this team under the lights in Baton Rouge and LSU plays so fast on offense that the pass rush is negated.
You sound like an Auburn fan.
Everyone was being reasonable until this idiot showed up
Not sure I understand how playing fast negates a pass rush.
Burrow doesn’t actually drop back to pass. As soon as the center hands him the ball its already to the receiver. It really is magical. He’s the only quarterback in the history of football to accomplish this feat. It’s something to behold.
The center doesn’t hand him the ball. Burrow’s always in the shotgun.
Oh Joe, I broke out laughing when I read bayou tiger’s comment.
Actually Joe, Burrow uses a volley ball type action in the shotgun to mitigate pass rush. He really only touches the ball for a fraction of a second.
Florida has no running game whatsoever so calling this guy an idiot when that score is very possible in the “Saturday night in Baton Rouge” environment makes me wonder who the idiot really is.
Sure. Any score is “possible.” But in the recent 20-year history of this series, that score is highly unlikely.
41-27 is a little more accurate in my opinion
31-27 is more likely, in my opinion. It remains to be seen who scores the 41.
you think FL wont put as many points on the board as Vandy?…right
I am an LSU fan, but that score is unreasonable, come on now.
LSU should be favored in their house but double digits seems too much.
“LSU’s elite secondary can negate Florida’s greatest strength”, sure but how about the opposite? Not only Gator’s elite secondary but also Gator’s elite pass rush. That is why the games are played on the field.
This is our most difficult test of the season, if we can get out of there with a W look out.
The deciding factor I believe is how well either team’s linebackers can cover the 5-10 yard passes in the middle of the field. Both teams have elite secondary and always have. LSU’s defense just isnt as bad as everyone is making them out to seem.
I agree on the LB comment. Those underneath crossing routes must be covered tightly, and can turn deadly when/if the receiver gets loose and the rest of the secondary has their backs to the play.
Frisbee catching DOGS?! This is a disgusting description. I’m sure you have a better vocabulary and can come up with a better way to describe these young men. Does Football Writers Association of America have a list of disgusting, demeaning descriptive words?
That adjective is actually used on the radio more than you think. It was initially coined by Mark Packer and is not meant to be demeaning at all. Many people have really embraced the description.
I’ve been listening to comments on football for over 30 years and know that the commentators may “embrace the description” but I am sure that there is NOT ONE footballer (or any other black athlete) calling each other frisbee catching dogs… “Many people” is relative, especially when most commentators have been white males, who historically have issues with black masculinity as it relates to their own inadequacies.
Your ear (eyes) may hear (see) it the same way as I do. It’s all good. It was not a complaint – it was an observation and comment. I believe, that’s why this section exists.
Really? That is your complaint. The catches made by those dogs are truly amazing. It’s not an insult or demeaning. You need a support dog.
The reason this game will be close is that these teams are at parity.
You could flip the teams in this article at virtually every point the writer makes. Gators win 28-24. Our defense will help lessen the roars frequency. I’m looking forward to Baton Rouge.
So you think at home LSU will only score 11 more points than Auburn did away, and yall will score more points than you did at home against them?
I don’t know who wins or what the score will be, but Marshgator89 is right: These two teams have generally played at parity for the last few years.
LSU fans (and most observers) think LSU is drastically better this year, but it’s pretty much the same roster with the same QB as last year. They’re just running a different scheme.
The different scheme has added up to about 20 points a game. That matters.
We’ll see when they play a top defense.
Yes I am saying that. You’re rushing game will be nullified. I’ll be totally surprised if Burrow van throw on CJ and Marco. Going over the middle Davis is waiting. Zuniga’s return will elevate our defense above the play higher than AU game. Trask will make the right decisions and our special teams will execute and get us points. I’m aware of what it’s like in Death Valley. Your crowd(like ours) will get you points. It’s an electric atmosphere and our boys aren’t intimidated. Our defense vs your offense. It’s going to be a close battle but it will probably be one of the best games of the year period. Good luck
We won’t turn the ball over 4 times and i don’t think FL will turn the ball over 4 times but FL and AU has to be somewhat worried 4 turn overs each and 17-13 game going into the 4th. You can say LSU hasn’t played an elite defense rightfully so but they wont hold this offense to 13 points… 31-24 LSU
Elite defenses cause fumbles, interceptions, and sacks. The fact that people seem to not understand that these days shows how long it has been since anyone has seen a truly elite defense.
You calling Auburns defense elite shows how loosely we use the word elite now also. No doubt FL defense is good but what offense have they really played just as much what defense has lsu really played. 4 of the 6 games FL has faced a first year QB. Have also only played in one away game
AU may not have an elite defense, but that D line certainly is elite (if you think otherwise, you are in denial) and they were responsible for 3 of the 4 UF fumbles (the 4th fumble was due to helmet to helmet contact that knocked pierce out of the game).
Auburn’s defense is very, very good. Derrick Brown is pretty much unblockable. He caused 3 of the fumbles as strip sacks. The fourth was an uncalled helmet to helmet hit.
Derrick brown is very very good. their d line is very good. Secondary is not good..they have given up almost 1500 yards passing 10 tds.
I actually thought Auburn’s secondary played decently. Their D coordinator gets some blame for playing their safeties way too deep. Mullen did a great job creating linebacker mismatches.
I feel good about the LSU game, unless Derrick Brown transfers to LSU this week and gets immediate eligibility.
Glad you feel good about it. Stay positive.
“an adverse environment”
Make that “a foaming-at-the-mouth hostile environment”. The crowd will be screaming at jet-plane decibels.
We’ll see how a silent snap count works. Better practice it.
UF was very impressive last week, especially on defense, but they haven’t played a good offense this season. I don’t think we break 40 against them, but I do believe LSU will still score enough to win. The Florida offense has only been OK this season. They will still make some plays, but I just don’t see them scoring enough to beat LSU in Tiger Stadium. Our players admitted that the Florida crowd affected them last season. I think the same holds true this year.
Never mind the Boy Scout “12th man” at A&M. The Death Valley 12th man trumps that in spades.
This is all very reminiscent of the Auburn hype last week. Auburn’s offense is terrible and has problems this week. But last week it was a juggernaut.
So I guess Vandy must have an elite offense huh?
Vandy scored 21 offensive points. We were scoring so fast vandy had 80 plays. Had 16 possessions and like 8 were 3 and out 4 were 4 or 5 plays and punt. All with 4 starters not playing. I hope your team underestimates our d as much as you are
24 offensive points my bad we had a fumble recovered for td and a pick 6 with our backup qb
You think the Florida crowd will affect them this year too?
Reading is fundamental. We will see if the LSU crowd has an impact on Florida. I didn’t know I had to spell it out for you.
“Our players admitted that the Florida crowd affected them last season. I think the same holds true this year.”
Why are we having this conversation. It’s a known fact that the game is in Baton Rouge. Give up the pettiness. Thanks
Because…reading is fundamental!
LSU’s schedule has been about the same, if not worse. TX is OK…not a lot of Defense, but good offense. I would say TX is about the same as AU for different reasons. I do think the game will hinge upon what the FL offense does, or doesn’t do.
So the the 5 concerns are that there are no concerns. Title didn’t match the article at all.
Personal opinion:
From a Gator fan’s perspective, the disrespect and underdog status feels like last week all over again.
If our offense commits 2 turnovers or less, we win. That few mistakes means Trask isn’t playing like this is his first road game and we all know LSU’s defense isn’t strong enough to grind us out in a classic SEC-style game.
On the other side of the ball, I agree with the stats posted above (I won’t re-type them here) about how LSU has played no one with a remotely good defense so far. Burrow and Co. are the real deal, but there’s no way they still feel good by the late 3rd quarter after playing a defense of this caliber.
I’ll eat my crow if we get wrecked, but I’m tired of the low expectations. Mullen has us on the right track. Saturday we’ll find out how far we are.
FL should be playing without pressure in this out of division game. They are playing with “house” $. All the pressure is on LSU with that line, their ranking, playing at home and the reality of having to face both AU and Bama in coming weeks. That being said, I think the only chance FL has in this one is if their OL wins that LOS. I do not know much about LSU’s front 7, but the talking heads say that AU has the best front 7 UF will see this year and UF did OK with 400 yards against them. We’ll see on Saturday.
LSU has 4 NFL Caliber players on both ends of the football, and the AU Front prediction was early before LSU started showing up. I won’t underestimate your Defense, but if you underestimate ours, you guys will sure live to regret it.