Florida begins Year 2 of the Billy Napier era very much a program in transition.

There are reasons for optimism. Recruiting is rolling, with Florida poised to sign its 1st consensus top-5 class since 2012. The backfield may be the best in the SEC, led by the sterling thunder-and-lightning punch of Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne. The Florida linebackers finally look like … well, Florida Gators linebackers again after recruiting woes and injuries reduced the unit to Ventrell Miller and an undersized, slow supporting cast long on heart but short on talent over the past 3 campaigns.

There is also plenty of skepticism. Florida enters the 2023 campaign coming off back-t0-back losing seasons for the 1st time since 1978-79. The Gators haven’t had 3 consecutive losing seasons since before the sport integrated. Florida was picked to finish 5th in the SEC East — the worst projection since divisional play began — last month by the SEC media. Just last week, SEC Network predicted Florida would finish 4-8, which would be the worst season since Will Muschamp’s 2013 team was decimated by injuries and finished the year with a 4th-string quarterback starting against Florida State.

Predictions are what make talking season talking season, of course. But there’s no doubt some of the doubt around Florida is bulletin-board material for the locker room.

Despite low expectations, Florida’s coaches believe they have a deeper team than last year’s 6-7 outfit. And Napier has sounded cautiously optimistic as Florida readies for its season opener at No. 14 Utah on Aug. 31.

As Florida awaits that much-anticipated rematch of last year’s thriller in The Swamp, here are 5 ways Florida will be better — and 3 ways it will be worse — in 2023.

Better: Preventing big plays in the passing game

Florida’s pass defense ranked 99th nationally and 12th in the SEC (ahead of just Arkansas and Tennessee) in pass plays allowed of 20 yards or more last season, giving up 42. A lack of a permanent solution at a corner spot, injuries and erratic safety play all contributed to the issue, as did a linebacker corps that struggled in coverage. Florida was especially woeful against opposing tight ends, allowing 17 completions to tight ends of 20 yards or more, per Stats Solutions. Florida landed R.J. Moten, a starter for a College Football Playoff team at Michigan, to shore up the back end in 2023, and its young safeties who were bloodied a year ago should be improved. Jason Marshall Jr. was PFF’s 2nd-rated corner in 1-on-1 coverage situations in the SEC last year, per PFF, and Jalen Kimber, Ja’Keem Jackson and Devin Moore should offer stability and depth at corner. Florida will be much better on the back end of the defense in 2023.

Worse: The offensive line will give up more sacks

Florida lost consensus All-American O’Cyrus Torrence to the NFL Draft last spring, and longtime starter Richard Gouraige is joining him with the Buffalo Bills. Lose 2 NFL-caliber linemen from a group that was a Joe Moore Award semifinalist and allowed just 17 sacks a season ago (2nd best in the SEC, behind Georgia), and you’ll likely take a step back.

Better: Run defense

Florida ranked 100th nationally against the run a season ago, as teams capitalized on the Gators’ lack of depth inside, erratic linebacker play and lack of a consistent presence to hold the edge along their defensive front. The problems against the ground game aren’t new. In 2021, Florida finished 85th against the run, and in 2020, it ranked 71st — a sign of long-term program malaise in an area that used to be a constant source of strength in Gainesville. Florida emphasized run defense in the portal, adding Memphis transfer Cam’Ron Jackson to bolster the tackle position and grabbing defensive end Caleb Banks to help hold the edge. The Gators also nabbed Ohio State transfer Teradja Mitchell, one of the B1G’s top 10 linebackers against the run in 2021, to help the corps avoid being blown off the ball. “This will be perhaps the defense’s biggest step forward in 2023,” a UF defensive coach texted last week. “We will be stout up front for the 1st time in a while around here.”

Worse: Deep passing game

Anthony Richardson was excellent at finding receivers on deep balls, and he spread the love, connecting on long touchdown passes to Justin Shorter, Ricky Pearsall and Xzavier Henderson a season ago. Henderson (portal) and Shorter (NFL) are gone, as is Richardson (NFL). In their stead, Graham Mertz, who doesn’t have Richardson’s arm strength (who does?), and Pearsall, who lacks another proven commodity like Shorter around him, won’t be able to pick up the slack — and it’s too soon to trust any of Florida’s immensely talented, but unproven, wide receivers to make up the difference.

Better: Kickoff returns will be among the best in the SEC

Etienne was excellent in a kickoff return role last season, averaging 24.8 yards a return, the 2nd-best total in the SEC behind Kentucky’s Barion Brown (27.5). A year older, Etienne will be even better, and he should gain more than 500 yards in the return game, an improvement on last season’s 421.

Worse: 3rd-down conversions

Florida finished in the top 50 nationally a season ago in this metric, converting 40.5 percent of its 3rd downs. The threat of Richardson running the football from the quarterback position, coupled with one of the SEC’s best offensive lines, made the Gators formidable on 3rd down. While Florida has a strong backfield led by Johnson and Etienne, the 1-dimensional nature of Mertz — who is purely a thrower — coupled with new faces on the offensive line suggests a dropoff is coming here.

Better: Total defense

This prediction was likely obvious, given we’ve pegged the Gators to improve in run defense while also limiting big plays in the passing game. But this is also obvious because to be truthful, Florida’s defense can’t get much worse. From 2001-19, only Alabama and Ohio State fielded more top-25 and top-10 nationally ranked defenses than the Gators. Florida hasn’t ranked any higher than 51st since 2020, and last year’s unit ranked 97th, its worst since 1980, when the New York Times and Sagarin began tracking the statistic. There’s just nowhere to go but up for the Gators under new defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong.

Better: Recruiting finish

Florida’s recruiting class is currently ranked 3rd in the 247 composite, behind only Georgia and Ohio State. The Gators’ average recruit rating of 91.87 is likewise top 5, just a year removed from being top 10 in that metric. Florida hasn’t had a top-5 class since Muschamp’s 2013 class, and it would need to lose at least 1 big-time commitment and fail to land any of the other big names it is targeting this autumn to drop out of the top 5. Florida’s new football facility is one of the best in the country, a stark contrast from the facilities issues that plagued much of the Urban Meyer, Muschamp, Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen eras. It also helps that Napier and his staff are good at recruiting and have one of the SEC’s largest recruiting operations and budgets. This will be a top 5 class for Florida, a huge improvement from past seasons.