Graham Mertz is really good, but how will Florida use DJ Lagway?
GAINESVILLE — There’s a buzz around Gainesville this August, and it’s not just the gnats and mosquitos that have terrorized more than usual this summer thanks to the torrential rains of Hurricane Debby, which rolled through town at the beginning of the month.
It’s not just “talking season” noise either, though that’s always common this time of year in the town where Heisman Trophy winner and coaching legend Steve Spurrier coined the phrase for what happens in the SEC when football approaches every July and August.
While there’s the usual excited chatter about the coming college football season, this buzz feels different.
This buzz is palpable, focused, encouraged, even ambitious.
At a program that’s suffered 3 consecutive losing seasons for the first time since full integration and is about to play perhaps the most difficult regular-season schedule in the history of college football, maybe the added buzz and excitement is a bit surprising, especially to anyone outside of the Florida football facility. You wouldn’t expect much at a place where the going over/under betting line for the 2024 season is 5.5 wins.
Then again, maybe the buzz makes perfect sense.
After all, “talking season” is the season of perpetual hope, and nothing brings more hope than 5-star, can’t-miss quarterback prospects.
Florida’s most important recruiting victory since Tim Tebow, DJ Lagway is the talk of the town.
This writer is just a one-man sample size, but in only 3 weeks back in Gainesville, I’ve heard Lagway mentioned in conversation at a number of Gainesville institutions, historic haunts and community gathering places, from Ballyhoo Grill to Blue Water Bay to Haile Plantation Publix to the splash pad at Depot Park. In keeping with the “it just means more” theme, I even heard Lagway mentioned in Prayers of the People attending Holy Eucharist in downtown Gainesville this past Sunday. Florida football, lost in the wilderness for a decade, is ready to be redeemed, and Lagway is a gridiron gift from God.
The accolades Lagway brings are legion. A Gatorade National Player of the Year and High School Heisman winner, Lagway, while playing against high-level Texas high school football competition, threw for 4,634 yards and 58 touchdowns as a senior at Willis High School outside Houston, where he averaged 11.5 yards per attempt with a 72% completion rate. Lagway can run too, tallying 957 yards rushing on just 99 attempts with 16 touchdowns. Lagway averaged 5.7 touchdowns produced per game — numbers that are 1 more than the high school average of the guy he keeps getting compared to in Gainesville, Heisman winner Tim Tebow, and 1.4 more than another former Heisman winner who attended Florida, Cam Newton. 247 Sports analyst Clint Brewster watched Lagway film this summer and quickly predicted he’d join Tebow and Newton as a Heisman Trophy winner one day.
Destined for greatness, the question is how soon is now for Lagway? And can Florida keep him in Gainesville long enough to reap the benefits of winning the recruiting battle?
How much Lagway fits into Florida’s plans in 2024 depends on a confluence of factors, at least 2 of which are largely out of Lagway’s control.
In a perfect world, the Gators could be patient with Lagway, a blessing made possible by the presence of senior Graham Mertz, one of the SEC’s most effective quarterbacks in 2023 and a team captain and unquestioned leader. While it is unlikely Lagway would simply stand on the sideline with a headset and learn this autumn, there’s a learning curve involved in SEC football, and if Florida can integrate Lagway slowly, building and adding to a package designed for him to succeed, that would be optimal.
There’s no better precedent for that formula than at Florida, where Urban Meyer and Dan Mullen utilized an ever-expanding but limited package of plays to integrate Tebow into high level college football in 2006 while honoring the talent and experience of starter Chris Leak.
Leak, even more than Mertz, was a proven commodity, and he remains the program’s all-time leading passer. While fans clamored for more Tebow throughout Florida’s 2006 national championship run, it was Leak who led the Gators on a critical 4th quarter drive to win a scary game in Tallahassee and Leak who won BCS National Championship Game Offensive MVP honors in Florida’s 41-14 rout of Ohio State.
“The role that (Leak) played in just making me comfortable as a college quarterback, and with showing me the value of poise and how to approach things daily, it was super important,” Tebow told SDS last autumn. “It was an ideal way to get used to college football because I could focus on what the coaches asked of me each week. I didn’t have to carry the weight of the world on my shoulders.”
As a freshman, Tebow threw just 33 passes. He played in every game, though, and rushed for 489 yards and 8 TDs, including immense yards in a win over Tennessee and the national championship game, where he ran and threw for a TD.
Mertz, whose adjusted completion percentage of 80.2% last year was No. 2 in the SEC behind only Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, per PFF, should offer Lagway that type of role. The wide receiver room is deeper than 2024, too, which means Mertz, who ranked No. 3 behind only Daniels and Georgia’s Carson Beck in passing success rate, should be more versatile a thrower in 2024. If Mertz can improve on an average depth of target (ADOT) of just 6.8 yards in 2023 this season, the Florida offense, which averaged a respectable 6.1 yards per play a season ago, should be more explosive.
That’s where Lagway’s skill set should come in.
Florida completed just 16 passes of 20 yards or more in 2023, a 10.9% deep ball attempt rate. While some of this is undoubtedly schematic, an adjustment made by Napier to offset a weak offensive line and keep the Florida offense on schedule from a down and distance perspective, some of it reflects a longtime weakness of Mertz as an effective deep ball thrower.
The Gators ranked just 56th nationally a season ago in 20-yard plus “explosive” plays and once you get to 30-yard plus plays, the Gators ranked 90th. Florida was No. 3 in the SEC in passing success rate but 9th in explosive pass play rating.
Success rate is perhaps the most important statistic in the sport offensively, and an area where in most respects, Mertz excels. It measures the success of a play in a given down and distance situation. For example, a 6-yard gain on 2nd-and-8 is successful, whereas a 4-yard bubble screen on 1st-and-10 is not successful. Thus, a successful play is defined as one that gains at least 50% of the yards to go on first down, 70% of the yards to go on 2nd down, or is converted into a first down or score on 3rd or 4th down.
Can Lagway make Florida’s passing game, already quite “successful” in 2023, both “successful” and “explosive”?
In a perfect world, a package for Lagway would focus on that question, allowing Lagway the ability to showcase his rocket arm and deep throwing ability and also keeping defenses honest with an RPO package that the Gators could expand as Lagway’s understanding of college defenses and the Florida playbook grows stronger. Already, Lagway has wowed teammates with big-time deep throws in practice, even as he stumbles occasionally, as he did with what sources told SDS was a forced deep ball interception in a scrimmage over the weekend.
“There’s not much he can’t do with his arm,” tight end Arlis Boardingham told the media. “DJ has a cannon. He’ll launch it. It’s on the money, too.”
If, in a limited but expanding package, Florida can parlay Lagsway’s elite arm strength and accuracy, as well as his ability to extend plays with his legs, into additional explosives, the Gators have a chance to be outstanding offensively.
Unfortunately for Florida, the 2024 Gators do not profile like the 2006 Gators.
Mertz may seem like an ideal mentor, a Chris Leak to Lagway’s Tebow.
But without defensive improvement, the Gators may struggle to win games, and therein lies the proverbial rub.
Anyone who follows the sport in even a cursory manner knows Florida coach Billy Napier enters the 2024 season under pressure thanks to an 11-14 record in his first 2 seasons. Desperation could force Napier’s hand, and the challenge of Florida’s otherworldly schedule could drive the arrival or desperation sooner rather than later.
If Florida stumbles out of the gate, and Napier is facing the prospects of losing his job, will he turn to Lagway sooner, to inject juice into the program and give the fan base a shot in the arm and signal that the future is brighter than the stormy present?
You could forgive Napier for doing that, no matter how unfair it might seem to Mertz, who staked his long-term future on a return to Gainesville and another shot at proving his mettle in the SEC in 2024.
For now, that’s not the plan, no matter how much the noise around Lagway’s 2024 role swells as summer in The Swamp turns to Miami week in the coming days.
“He’s made progress, no question,” Napier said last week when asked about his young quarterback. “I had a conversation with DJ the other day after practice and we said, ‘Hey, that wasn’t perfect but practice day is never perfect.’ But we told him, think about where you are now compared with where you were after the first practice in spring. He’s made tremendous growth. He’s getting better.”
Is getting better enough for the Gators and Lagway in 2024?
We’ll know soon enough.
Until then, that will continue to be what Gators fans talk about, from swimming pools to office water coolers to Sunday services and come Aug. 31, against the Hurricanes in The Swamp.
Article does a good job explaining the potential way this may play out. Baby Woke is now reading at 4th grade level and enjoyed this article also. Great job in Chicago last night team blue.
DNC..or the Donkeys in general, do a great job of selling lies to the American people.
It’s easy when you know everything, right?
Trump is a moronic demented scumbag Putin lackey scumbag wannabe dictator traitor to the country.
LMAOOO cry harder
” a moronic demented scumbag ” says the one that voted for Bi den. You just can’t make this sheet up, talk about projection
^^^ Truth. ^^^
^^^Truth^^^ to what GeauxTigers8 said. So cialism / Mar xism is nothing but lies and deception.
By that you mean voted for the candidate who was NOT a fat failed convicted criminal wannabe FASCIST.
Correct
Again we either live in an alternate reality or some people are completely deluded or just plain stupid.
” failed” only applies to the current prez who was just thrown under the bus by his own party precisely because he is a failure.
” convicted criminal wannabe FASCIST.” is just a deep state and media narrative the first part of which will be reversed on appeal
Maybe, but how do they look in a nice pair of tight jorts!?
Really good article, Neil, and would have been better had you left out the first nine paragraphs and the sophist-like “buzz” theme. Even withal, you get and “A”. You’re a good, insightful writer.
What you don’t want to read about mosquitos? BTW don’t know why that reminds me of me of that late great breakfast place Skeeters Big Bisquits.
Dang now I’m hungry
Nice article Neil however you just mentioned the D in passing and didn’t say squat about the O line. Those 2 units are what will determine our success or failure this season. No one should be worried about the QB room
I wonder if Blackmon understands that, in SEC football, the element of surprise is critical to successful offensive execution. If CBN wants to ruin Lagway’s confidence, I see no better way than to signal to the opposition that every time he puts the kid in the game he’ll be primarily throwing it deep.
The best example of doing the opposite I’ve ever seen was pulled off by the HBC vs. FSU in the greatest game ever played in the Swamp in November 1997. Spurrier confounded FSU DC Mickey Andrews by alternating cannon armed Doug Johnson and walk-on nobody Noah Brendise at QB on every other play.
Almost all the long passes called by SOS came when Brendise was at QB. Almost all the screens and short passes came when Johnson was in the game, until the winning drive late in the 4th quarter. By then, Johnson caught the FSU secondary cheating for a run and chucked a 62-yard pass over their heads to Jaques Green, who was streaking down the right sideline. Fred Taylor scored the winning TD a few plays later, with less than 2 minutes left in the game to give the Gators a 32-29 win I’ll never forget.
Whatever packages CBN gives Lagway to execute this season better include short and long passes, preferably from an RPO formation where he also gets the option to run whenever he sees an opportunity.
The article says they need to have an RPO package for Lagway that they expand throughout the year.
Thank you for reading my comment Neil. I was motivated by the first part of the very same sentence you pointed out.
Frankly, I don’t believe CBN is desperate. After all, he has a $25 million golden parachute. Hopefully, he won’t throw the kid out there to chuck it deep until the kid knows how to look off high safeties.
The real key to saving CBN’s job lies in greatly improving defensive performance, not more explosive offense.
I’m far more concerned by collateral damage to the program that firing CBN will cause. That damage is likely to include losing Lagway to the portal.
StL, that 1997 game vs FSU is the best one I have ever seen!
Doesn’t matter.
When the next portal window opens, he will transfer to UGA and sue Coach Billy.
Just kidding Gator fans. Serious question though – Does UF redshirt Lagway or throw him in every game (with limited packages) to accelerate his learning curve? Obviously either way he’ll get the keys to the car in 2025.
I don’t see him redshirting. It would be pointless. I suspect we have him for a maximum of three years, so he should play this year. If Mertz is playing well, he is a change of pace. If Mertz is not winning games, or gets injured, then DJ gets the car keys.
Very funny sheet Dawggie, transfer and sue, funny sheet
It will be interesting to see if mertz can be even close to as successful this season as last. he played really well last season. The schedule this season plus a little more familiarity with him by the opposing DC’s will detract from that success, IMO. I can see DJ playing a very limited role and maybe getting some heavier minutes if a game gets out of hand but by and large he probably wont see anything meaningful no matter how bad it gets unless mertz gets hurt and rightfully so.
Hopefully, the Mertzinator won’t get hurt again fuzzy, because he may actually have a better season this year. Improved OL blocking may lead to a better running game, which should make play action passing more effective.
All the talk this summer has been about more explosive plays. I’m concerned with potentially more INT’s if Mertz tries to force deeper passes when his receivers aren’t open. It’s something that plagued him at WI, which he avoided much of LY.
DJ, like Sir Timmy, could be a great red zone threat running the RPO inside the 15 yd line. Defenses know that Mertz is no threat to run inside the 20 so they can key on the pass and the RB. DJ would force them to account for the QB near the goal line. Florida’s TD efficiency last year in the red zone was 66% good for 30th in the country, respectable but maybe DJ could drive that up this year. It would be great for the team and for DJ if that were the case.
That’s rich…considering the orange one is most known for being a habitual non truth teller. Good job Hillary last night!!!
Again your side has mastered the art of projection to a T. Big difference between exaggerations and lies, your guy and gal do the latter very well
They will use him to bea the Vols again lol
Nice try…but every third grader and thier pet goats know how to spot projection…and all eyes are on maga.
Right, wonder when Ka ma la will come out calling for building the wall or for drill baby drill. Maybe she’ll announce those unique ideas at the debate just like she came up all by herself with no tax on tips last week
However they use him, they will beat the Vols
Never ceases to amaze me how aggressively dumb Trumpy MAGAs are
There you go again projecting
Good article. I am so glad that there is only one week till Gator football!
Enjoy the hope of a new season.
I’m just glad I can watch college football again.