Let’s start from the very top, because that’s what’s important in such a tenuous time for Florida football.

For those who want change, there is no choice: Billy Napier isn’t going anywhere.

You’re not giving up so early in the process, and not bailing on a core commitment from all involved — coach, university, boosters (see: NIL) — to build it organically no matter the ugly along the way.

But understand this: If the Gators (5-3, 3-2) lose at home Saturday to Arkansas (2-6, 0-5), that’s bad for business.

That’s going to be a problem.

In fact, an argument could be made that this is the most important game in Napier’s nascent 2 seasons.

“We’re getting better at what we do,” Napier said during his Monday press conference. “We haven’t necessarily got the results we wanted a couple times this year, but I do think there’s improvement in the big picture.”

If the Gators lose to an Arkansas team that has found every way imaginable to lose 6 straight games, it’s more than an indictment on a staff getting a team ready to play.

It becomes product liability.

Napier can win at Florida because he can recruit at a high level. He will get blue-chip players to Gainesville.

The obvious question: What happens after those players arrive? Does development match procurement?

The hope that Napier and his staff are pitching to high school and transfer portal recruits only has so much impact. With every loss, with every postgame mantra of we’re getting closer, high school and portal recruits waver.

It happens every year with every struggling program; don’t think it won’t — and can’t — happen at Florida. That’s why the Arkansas game is so important.

Lose at home, and the promise of what could be sustains another dent, another unavoidable failing. At some point, you are what you are.

The last thing Napier needs right now is a home loss to a struggling team suddenly throwing doubt into the minds of a Top 3 recruiting class.

Throw any shade of lipstick on this pig, it doesn’t change reality.

You can’t be 11-10 in 21 games at Florida. You can’t be 6-7 in SEC games. You can’t be 7-10 vs. Power 5 schools.

You can’t consistently roll out an offense that looks — in no certain order — ineffective, predictable, and structurally unable to adapt mid-game.

You can’t look pristine on the 1st touchdown drive of the game against the No. 1 team in the nation, and follow that with drives of punt, downs, fumble, safety, punt, punt, punt and downs — until it’s 36-7 in the 2nd half and the game is long out of reach.

That’s coaching — from the entire staff, not just Napier. That’s adjusting to what the opponent does, and keeping your players in the game with a plan that doesn’t rely on a 4th down and half a yard attempt that snaps the ball between the legs of 2 players and into the waiting arms of a tailback 7 yards deep — who then has to catch the snap and try to throw a pass.

That’s failure. It clear and incontrovertible.

High school and transfer portal players aren’t blindly committing and signing with schools because of NIL money. The money is virtually the same with all blue-blood programs.

The difference is development: how quickly can you get me to the NFL, and how prepared will I be? And if they can win a championship along the way, all the better.

That sell gets harder and harder with every unthinkable loss.

The product at Florida now most certainly doesn’t look like a production factory for the NFL. It doesn’t look like — and has a track record as proof — it can consistently win games in the toughest conference in college football.

That doesn’t mean Florida can’t or won’t under Napier, it means what can be isn’t necessarily what you show during the buildout. But in this highly visual, day-by-day world, high school and transfer portal players need to see it to believe it.

They need to see more of an efficient and smart 1st drive executed throughout 60 minutes of a game. They need something to hold onto despite the track record they’re staring at.

The last thing they need to see is a home loss to a 2-win team.

“I think the football has improved in a lot of areas on our team,” Napier said. “I think there’s a good process in place.”

It’s time to show it — in a game Florida and Napier can’t afford to lose.