In rout of Kentucky, Billy Napier shows a glimpse of the narrow path forward
GAINESVILLE — Florida pummeled Kentucky 48-20 on Saturday night in front of a deliriously happy sold out Swamp.
The Gators snapped a 3-game losing streak to the Wildcats by riding electric playmakers offensively and imposing their will on both lines of scrimmage, the same roadmap to victory Kentucky used to flip the script in a series where before Kentucky’s 3-game winning streak, Florida had won 31 consecutive games.
For Billy Napier, Florida’s beleaguered head coach, the win kept the lions at bay for another week.
Napier’s buyout was assembled by Florida’s boosters in September, per multiple media reports.
After Saturday night’s blowout win, there’s enough hope swirling around the Florida program to provide a path forward under Napier, albeit a narrow one.
The path to securing a 4th season for Napier in Gainesville starts with Florida’s outstanding true freshman quarterback, DJ Lagway. Earlier this week, I wondered if Lagway’s arrival on the scene as Florida’s starting quarterback may have come too late. That question lingers, but Saturday night’s performance by Lagway suggests that there’s at least a chance Florida is finally lurching itself in the right direction under Napier.
Lagway was marvelous against Kentucky.
Facing a top-10 defense, Lagway led Florida to 41 offensive points, 476 yards, and 8.07 yards per play, all season-worsts for Kentucky. The 8.07 yards per play was the best output for Florida against a SEC opponent in the Napier era. Lagway completed just 7-of-14 passes, but 6 of those completions went for explosives, including this dime to Elijhah Badger to set up Florida’s second touchdown with the game still tight in the first half.
https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1847811643960377595
Lagway also changes the way teams defend the Gators.
“They are much harder to scheme for with (Lagway) as a thrower,” Kentucky coach Mark Stoops said following the game. “The vertical threat he provides makes it more difficult to slow the run game. You can’t just cheat a safety or fill the box.”
Mindful of the vertical pass, Kentucky’s terrific front 7, which stuffed the run games of Georgia and Ole Miss earlier this season, was manhandled by the Gators up front, surrendering 197 yards and a season-high 4.5 yards per attempt and 43% success rate.
Florida’s running game was buoyed by the magnificent play of another true freshman, Jadan Baugh. Napier landed Baugh late in the 2023 recruiting cycle, flipping him from Arkansas and holding off a furious push by Alabama. Spelling the injured Montrell Johnson Jr. on Saturday night, Baugh powered his way for 106 yards on 22 bruising carries. Baugh’s 5 rushing touchdowns tied the school record held by Tim Tebow and Trey Burton, respectively.
With Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson controlling the game on the ground, Lagway feasted over the top. Lagway did throw an interception but avoided other large mistakes, rushing for 46 yards on scrambles and a well-designed and called series of RPOs designed to keep the pocket moving and give the young quarterback options against a ferocious Wildcats pass rush.
Florida’s improving defense did the rest.
Torched for over 300 yards rushing by Kentucky a season prior, Florida limited the Wildcats to just 146 yards on Saturday night. When Kentucky was forced to open things up after the Gators built a multiple-score lead, the Gators pressured quarterback Brock Vandagriff, limiting the Wildcats to just 5.2 yards per pass attempt and forcing 3 Vandagriff turnovers.
Florida’s formula for victory wasn’t fluky. It’s a blueprint.
Now 4-3 on the season, the question for Napier and Florida is can they replicate it against the oncoming gauntlet?
Florida has a bye week to savor its most complete performance of Napier’s tenure, but everyone in The Swamp on Saturday night knows what awaits this team in November.
The schedule is as brutal as media and fans projected it would be. Florida’s 3 losses all came to programs currently or imminently about to be ranked in the top 10. At least 4 games against ranked opponents remain.
A Georgia team that appears to have found itself looms in the Cocktail Party is waiting first, in Jacksonville in 2 weeks. A trip to Austin to play Texas follows. The season’s final 2 home games feature dates with ranked teams in rival LSU and Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss. A rivalry game with Florida State — suddenly a game the Gators should win — is the lone reprieve — and it’s a road game against a talented defense.
Before the season, I wrote that thanks to the brutal schedule, Napier might be able to secure a 4th year at Florida with a 7-5 or even 6-6 record, depending on how the team was playing and how Florida was recruiting.
Recruiting, at least at present, is discouraging. The Gators’ 2024-25 class ranks 39th in the 247 composite and their best commitment flipped to Miami earlier this month. Recruiting returns must improve, or any momentum Napier gains from his improving team will be fleeting.
That said, the Gators do appear to have found something on the field, a fact Napier took a deserved moment to smile about Saturday night.
“I am very proud of the resiliency of our football team,” he said. “I think resiliency is essentially just being mentally tough and having the ability to overcome setbacks, to work through difficult times, to have an identity. Look, that’s what I would say about our team, is they continue to work. They were solution-oriented. Nobody pointed a finger. We went through a challenge last Saturday night. We had a locker room of guys that were hurt. We could have easily splintered at that point, but we didn’t.”
The Gators could have mailed it in after a heartbreaking rivalry loss to Tennessee, where Florida dominated the game and lost its starting quarterback and leader, Graham Mertz.
Instead, Florida imposed itself on a team that had dominated it for the past 2 seasons.
The Gators will miss Mertz’s steel and steady decision-making in the stretch that follows. But there’s no question the Gators are more explosive offensively with Lagway under center. In 2 starts, Lagway has completed 9 passes of 40 yards or more. He’s led 3 touchdown drives of 90 yards or more this season. In just over 1 1/2 years as Florida’s starter, Mertz had only 5 such completions. He led only 2 such drives.
Lagway’s high ceiling, coupled with an improving defense, provide a path forward for Napier to a 4th year in Gainesville.
It’s a narrow path.
But it’s not one you’d have thought possible in September.
That will make this a November to remember at Florida, one way or another.
First again
Foul…11 AM tee time.
They have improved week to week. Im sure there are some people that wanted UF to lose to UK as an excuse to move on during the bye week. Dude beats georgia in a couple of weeks and Billy will be around at least one more year.
Seems like if they split their final conference schedule and beat FSU (they should, everyone else is), with a bowl win he stays. Yeah 8-5 is not a good wrap on a season, been worse though.
Which one-loss SEC team do you see the Gators beating, UGA, Texas, or LSU? They play those three in succession starting two weeks from now.
They must win one of those three games, then win out against Ole Miss and FSU just to get to 7-5.
StLGator, I have said way back that Florida will beat LSU. I have guaranteed LSU would lose the first game of the season. Then this other one against Florida.
Glad2bsec: We would, by this time, be delirious with 8-5 and so euphoric with 9-4 that we would no doubt wet our collective pants. Shoot, I would even give up a diet of fried Spam, cigars, and Red Seal Natural Long Cut. Probability though is less than 1% for the former and 0% for the latter.
6-6 at least will save a little dignity but as my buddy StL says, “Napier’s gotta go”.
Lagway is a very special player and looking forward to see how he performs the rest of the season. The guy can score with a deep bomb at any given time, what a weapon.
Whether Napier survives or not depends on how many more games we win and that depends on how many stupid decisions Napier makes the rest of the way
Give sunbelt Billy an extension and bump up that buyout!
Obviously, you are the smartest in the room.
Stay healthy, stay healthy, stay healthy…Billy you bonehead don’t run him on so many designed qb runs and OL play above your talent for remainder of the year. Kid can be special, needs full support of the team and Gator nation
Les, CBN is going to ride DJ the rest of the way. There’s a reason why he played the kid that portaled in from Yale. I’m happy we won in convincing fashion. However, I have no illusions that uga will take a break against us. Kirby is like Spurrier. He hates us and will not hesitate to pour it on. He will blitz DJ far worse than he has ever experienced. CBN should heed your advice.
Marsh, yep there’s nothing behind DJ – gotta be super careful at this stage especially with the UGA and UTa defenses. They will pin their ears back.
les, Billy can collect that huge buyout. It doesn’t matter one way or the other. He wants it done his way.
Only KY can make a Freshman QB look like a Heisman Trophy winner.
Yeaa! You know, the same KY that made future NFL 1st round pick, Carson Beck, look like a chump 4 weeks ago? That KY defense was embarrassed by this freshman QB last night. Amazing, huh?
“They are much harder to scheme for with (Lagway) as a thrower,” Kentucky coach Mark Stoops said following the game. “The vertical threat he provides makes it more difficult to slow the run game. You can’t just cheat a safety or fill the box.”
Best nugget in this article.
Well Florida broke that old Kentucky losing streak in high fashion.
I think most team in Division 1 football can beat KY.
Not the way they got beat last night.
Problem with KY is they are a very undisciplined team and Stoops should be fired. He has given up on KY and just going through the motions and taking a paycheck for mediocrity football. KY fans need to start the talk and search for a new coach and move in a better direction
I agree and have given up on this team and Stoops.
Florida’s run game sure looks much better without Johnson on the field. Imagine that. Is Napier not playing the players that give Florida the best chance to win because of favoritism/loyalty?
Huh??? Johnson has been a stud. Was that a serious observation? If it was, it’s a horrible take.
Napier could’ve played Lagway more snaps before yesterday too. No question, there’s some preferential treatment for his seniors there. BUT, even Johnson would’ve done well last night.
Stoops revealed after the game that the secret sauce to stopping the Gator running game the last couple of years was to bring down a safety, or put eight in the box and dare the Gator QB to beat ‘em deep. Lagway did that repeatedly last night and forced UK to play a more honest front seven vs. the running game. THAT opened things up for Baugh, who took full advantage and ran like a beast.
I believe it’s called complementary football. We’re gonna see more of that the rest of this season, regardless of who lines up behind Lagway.
StL, CBN was booed going off the field at halftime. Not trying to put up 3 or 7 more points was a microcosm of what is wrong. Honestly, it tells us that the fanbase has reached the point of being frustrated with CBN. The overall sentiment from the people I was sitting with was disbelief. We have lost to Kentucky two straight years at home and in Lexington. Our toughest game is next in Jax and with over 2 minutes left and Lagway gaining confidence against an elite defense he could have put a nail in the coffin. He chose to not go for the throat against a reeling top 10 defense. Kentucky got within 7 and thankfully we responded.
Yep! That’s our Napier.
Keep that Lagway Rembrandt in the closet as much as possible. He called exactly 14 pass plays Saturday night. None in the last 2 minutes before halftime.
Sorry bro but that is one stupid take. Montrell is a stud and would have run wild last night. He is still our best RB
Trell is a better all around back and leader of this team it’s true. But just like DJ has more pure talent and higher ceiling than Mertz, who was also the veteran leader of this team, Baugh’s vision, jump cut, power and wiggle is a much higher ceiling than Trell’s. But he will make rookie mistakes like DJ. If he stays till year 3 and continues to develop he could be a 1000 yd runner. He also is not the blocker or receiver Johnson is…yet.
Les, that’s what I am seeing also. I didn’t mean Montrell isn’t a stud but with the Gators o-line, even though they are improving, you need someone with vision that can change direction as opposed to a truck. The holes aren’t going to be where you want them to be very often.
Jaden played very well and is indeed a gifted player but there’s no need to say anything remotely negative about Montrell. Don’t forget that he has several explosive runs where he gets either tons of yards or takes it to the house while Jaden has nothing remotely close so far
Nothing negative about Montrell Cojo, he’s a great Gator, leader of this team, and loyal to a fault, Gator nation is lucky to have him. The same could be said of Mertz. Both are very talented in their own right, just not the ceiling of Baugh and DJ. That’s not a criticism either
When Montrell got injured during the Tennessee game, the running production went down. I do think that Baugh has a higher ceiling, but Montrell is a good back and he has more experience at the moment.
Special teams is still a mess. 39th in recruiting in inexcusable. His decision making lost the game at UT. And the fact that Mertz had to get hurt before Napier would do the obvious and play Lagway full time shows that he remains in way over his head.
Is incremental improvement from horrible to slightly above mediocre what Gator Nation has to settle for?
I’m good with settling for it, but then again, I may be biased
Yeah, I’m sure another ten to fifteen years of very “incremental improvement” at Florida would work just fine for you Humper. Nice try.
I just love those backhanded compliments.
I know we all want a change …but it’s ok to say Billy & the staff called a good game.
First game Napier avoids stupid decisions maybe there’s a smidgeon of hope he has finally seen the light. Probably not
Actually Cojo, not going for more points with 1:30 to go before halftime, with 2 TOs in his pocket, was another stupid Napier decision. It made things rather uncomfortable when UK opened the 3rd quarter by driving the length of the field and pulling within one score of tying the game.
As an OC, Napier will NEVER be confused for either SOS or UM. Going for the jugular is NOT in his DNA.
You may be right but that is a mild stupid decision as far as stupid decisions go so let me rephrase and say Napier made significantly less stupid decisions in that game
Better. LOL!
39th in recruiting is the media’s and OUR fault Mookie. Do you think any serious recruit who even casually looks at social media would have anything to do with Florida right now? C’mon man!
I’m right there with you on sending Sunbelt Billy packing. But, understand there’s a price to be paid for that move. The first place it shows up is in the HS recruiting rankings.
I’ll agree on the social media impact, but “our” fault? Nah. If Napier could actually, you know, coach, social media would not be demanding his ouster.
Once he’s gone, it’s another 3-5 years in the wilderness. Though as someone who lives in Indiana and sees what is being done at IU, maybe there is a way for better days to come sooner.
I think that pretty accurately describes the situation, Mookie. As a group, we were fairly well restrained in Year-1 since the residual impact of Mullin’s meltdown was clear – not that we didn’t notice the CBN concerns but rather that they were cloaked in more prominent locker room cultural/personnel issues. Year-2 provided more clarity, and the lid has come off in Year-3. When StL says, “This is why I’ve stopped supporting Napier….”, it speaks volumes. That sentiment runs deep by now.
Indiana and Illinois are two good models for sure, and if you want even more historic ones, Kansas State and Vandy. With all the resources available to Florida, it will only take an HC who knows how to fully leverage them and thus restore the brand. Unfortunately, the damage done so far will delay that reality for another couple of years, so once again we are back to the same problem that started in 2011. Whoever that HC is, he better have some very big tentacles.
Well Mookie, if frogs had wings they wouldn’t womp their rear ends every time they hop. Napier can no more coach well in a pressure packed game than frogs can sprout wings.
Napier is a great recruiter, but the noise in the system is hampering his HS recruiting now. Gator Nation is making a lot of noise.
I disagree on the length of the turnaround, depending on who the Gators hire to replace Napier. Lanning and Kiffin, for example, will hold on to most of the young talent there now and add via good use of the transfer portal. A 9-10 win season in Year 1 is within reach.
All that said, if Napier wins 3 of the last 5, he’ll get another year at the helm, regardless of all the noise in the system. And he’ll make up for a mediocre HS class with a good portal class.
Now, everyone loves Lagway. Couple weeks ago, people who wanted him to play more were, and I quote, “Morons”.
He is (was) the shiny new toy. Many just have a tremendous amount of respect for Mertz. Me included. I thought the way BN handled it was nearly perfect
What’s not to love JTF? The kid has a gift for evading the pass rush and hitting his receivers on their hands 20-40 yards downfield, on the dead run.
I haven’t been this impressed with a rookie QB since Dan Marino took over the QB1 position at Miami back in 1983. Like Lagway, he had great pedigree coming out of college, but a rookie is a rookie.
Lagway’s clear shortcomings are in recognizing defenses, going through progressions and quickly hitting check-down receivers in front of the coverage. He’s gonna throw a few picks before he figures all that out. Whenever he does, we’re gonna be reminded why we loved the Mertzinator so much.
Very sad to lose Mertz the way we did, but the game is still about the next man up.
I agree. Those folks who insisted that Mertz get the majority of reps were short sighted.
Mertz, by all indications, is a great guy. But, Lagwag getting this experience will pay off big time next year.
But Napier really has no choice now than to let the kid play, and let the chips fall where they may.
Still, I think Lagway is better prepared for what’s waiting for him in Jville in a couple of weeks than AR-15 was when Mullen threw him to the Dawgs back in 2021.
The fact that Lagway will be better prepared than AR was is thanks to Napier for giving him snaps before the Mertz injury so in that respect Napier did better than Mullen.
But regardless, Lagway is a much better player than AR was at the same point in their careers and like you said that Lagway long pass is a thing of beauty in its accuracy
STL., if there’s a failing for DJ it’s accuracy in the intermediate game where Mertz excelled. Hopefully he’s still developing and it won’t be career limiting like it was for AR.
We shall see Les. He needs the live reps.
I’ve always been excited about Lagway. There’s something about him that inspires confidence. He’s smart, talented, a good leader, and he isn’t full of himself. I did think that it was a good idea to have him take turns with Mertz so he could learn with less pressure, as talented as he is, he’s still new to the college game, especially the SEC. Since he’s the starter now due to Mertz’ injury, they should focus this season on getting him the most experience possible so that he’s ready to go next season. I’m excited to see his progression!
Did DJ have the talent to deliver that performance eight weeks ago? Or six weeks ago? Absolutely. But was he fully ready? Maybe, but probably not.
Also, the offensive line has gotten better and even the defensive improvement helps a quarterback. There will be a reality check in two weeks in Jacksonville, but on a positive note, DJ has played dozens more quality snaps than Anthony Richardson had when he started in Jacksonville. Yes, he will be blitzed and baited, but I believe he can compete at the necessary level.
The Billy stuff will take care of itself. But I would like very much to beat Georgia, and I now believe it’s a possibility.
You got that right Nash. The big difference between now and a month ago is the improved play of the OL after Napier and Sale stopped playing musical big uglies and settled on a starting five that could develop some chemistry playing together. The defense playing so much better is a bonus I never saw coming out of that first bye week.
All things considered, this is the best shape the Gators have been in, going into a Cocktail Party, since 2020. Hopefully, the game will be competitive, for a change.
Nash with you about beating the Dawgs. But I’d settle for lagway to grow in confidence, not get hurt (concussed or otherwise), and come out a better competitor with his moxie in tact having seen a top team’s defense and having given it his all. The more realistic win chances are lsu and old miss in the swamp
Agreed Les. Of course a win would be amazing, but if the Gators can compete and get experience against a talented team then that will be good for progress.
Everything is relative but Kentucky has played a lot of downs evenly or better than their opponents this year. Beating them is not a no-credit-due result
Beating Ole Miss and having UGA on the ropes is more than playing “a lot of downs evenly or better than their opponents.” Scoring 41 on that defense was outstanding.
This is the most fun I’ve had watching a game since 2020. The offense was exciting, I think that CBN allowed Spurrier to add some plays to the playbook. ;) The defense has continued to improve, and it was refreshing to see the young guys compete and do well. I really enjoyed seeing the team celebrate McClain after his pick 6.
One thing that has impressed me about this Gator team is the way that they haven’t given up and have continued fighting and improving. In this day and age of the me first mentality, it’s refreshing to see a team act like a team.
I will say one thing in Billy’s defense: It takes a quarterback who can make those throws; it takes receivers who can separate; and it takes an offensive line playing well enough to keep said quarterback upright long enough to make said throws.
His talent evaluations and recruiting prowess have never been questioned by Gator Nation. Thank the good Lord for that, at least. Otherwise, the last three years would’ve been a complete disaster.
The Gators “ALWAYS” Play LSU Tough At The Swamp, As For Georgia, Throw W’s and L’s out The Window, NOBODY ‘Cept God Knows what will Happen. Texas and Ole Miss, Those also can go either Way. FSU LMFAO….”REALLY” !!! Before all is said and done, Haters are Gonna be Amazed at the Turn around.
I agree!
Will the Ole Miss game be for the rights to coach UF next year???????
No.
Curt Cignetti. Google him