What Jim McElwain must do in 2015 to meet expectations
Head coaches are often given a free pass in their first year at a new job, but Jim McElwain won’t get that luxury.
As the Florida Gators’ head coach, McElwain steps into one of the top jobs in college football and Florida is desperate to return back to its SEC prominence that it sustained during the Urban Meyer era.
And because of this, McElwain won’t get much of a honeymoon in Gainesville. Anything but tangible progress in 2015 will be a disappointment to Gator Nation, so the pressure will be on for McElwain.
Here’s what he needs to do in 2015 to meet expectations.
Beat Georgia and Florida State
Looking ahead to next season, McElwain’s two biggest games will be against Georgia and Florida State. Fortunately for McElwain, the chances of Florida winning both matchups will be higher next year than this season, especially with the FSU matchup coming back to the Swamp.
Simply put, Will Muschamp didn’t win the big rivalry games enough to stick around. He salvaged his final season with an upset win over Georgia, but a 1-3 record against FSU has left a sour taste in the mouth of Florida fans.
One of the biggest reasons was the lack of offense, especially against FSU. The Gators only scored a total of 34 points in those three losses to the Seminoles. With higher expectations on offense under McElwain, there’s hope that the Gators can change momentum back into their favor, especially with a talented defense returning in 2015.
Winning both games may be a stretch for McElwain considering how talented Georgia and Florida State will be in 2015, but it’s a sure fire way of quickly gaining the confidence and support of a fan base hungry for success.
Take control of destiny in SEC East
The Gators haven’t been to the SEC Championship since 2009, but McElwain will still be in a good spot in 2015 with the division still very much up for grabs. No school has really taken ahold of the division and there’s no reason why the Gators can’t be right in the thick of the division race next season.
However, the difference for McElwain will have to be Florida’s role in the SEC East race. So many times in the Muschamp era, the Gators would be still alive to win the division but it would often come down to other teams and how they played rather than the Gators. Florida was behind the 8-ball, so to speak, way too much.
McElwain must keep the Gators in control of their own destiny. I don’t want to heap the expectation of actually winning the SEC East in McElwain’s first year — although that it certainly plausible — but I just believe that shift in perception will be enough for McElwain in 2015. He must get the Gators into a position where they take control of their own destiny rather than sitting back and hoping for the best outcome from other teams like Georgia and Missouri.
Win 9 games in the regular season
Looking at Florida’s 2015 schedule, winning nine games (potentially a two-game increase from 2014) isn’t improbable at all.
Four of Florida’s first five games will be in Gainesville, Fla., so that’s a favorable start to the schedule. And while Kentucky is likely to be better next season under Mark Stoops for a third season, Lexington, Ky., definitely isn’t the hardest place to play in the SEC.
Moving past the first third of the season, the following three weeks are much tougher — road games against Missouri and LSU with a neutral-site game against Georgia.
At this point, it’s realistic to think Florida could win its first four games and then take at least two games from Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU and Georgia.
After that four-game stretch, the Gators would have four games remaining with three very winnable games against Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Florida Atlantic — giving Florida nine regular-season wins before its matchup with FSU.
Even if Florida struggles in an early-season game and suffers a surprising loss, the Gators should still have an opportunity to reach nine wins before the end of the regular season.
Depending on where those losses come from in the season, a 9-3 regular season record should keep the Gators in the SEC East race, considering the lack of any elite team currently within the division.