LSU vs. Florida: 3 key matchups and a prediction
Florida visits No. 19 LSU Saturday night in the 70th meeting between the storied programs.
LSU has won 4 straight over the Gators, and a win Saturday night would give LSU its first 5-game winning streak over Florida in school history. The Gators hold the series win streak record with 9 from 1988-1996. LSU has won the past 2 games in Baton Rouge — both at night — and Florida has not won a night game in Death Valley since Tim Tebow and then-No. 1 Florida clipped No. 4 LSU 13-3 in 2009.
This rivalry game has delivered classic after classic over the years, making it one of the “mark you calendar” games of the SEC football season. A few favorites:
- LSU’s win in 2007, featuring a vintag Tebow performance outdone by Jacob Hester and No. 1 LSU converting 5 4th downs on their way to a 28-24 win and eventually, the national championship;
- LSU’s win in 2019, a back-and-forth duel between Joe Burrow and Kyle Trask that eventual national champion LSU won 42-28. Burrow would call it “the most fun, toughest, fiercest and most rewarding game we played” during the 2019 championship campaign;
- The “Shoe Throw,” in which LSU stunned No. 6 Florida in Gainesville in the fog in 2020, all but ending Florida’s College Football Playoff hopes in an instant classic;
- Florida’s goal-line stand to win the SEC East in Baton Rouge in 2016, a game embroiled in controversy because it was supposed to be played in Gainesville, but was played in Baton Rouge when former LSU AD Joe Alleva refused to return to Gainesville after the original game was canceled due to a hurricane threatening the Florida coast;
- “Pandemonium in The Swamp”– Florida’s 51-21 rout of then-No. 4 LSU in The Swamp in 2008, which featured a Tebow touchdown pass on their first play from scrimmage to Percy Harvin, creating noise in Florida’s stadium so loud it measured as an earthquake at the University of Florida. Florida went on to win the national championship.
Those are just a few of the vintage games in what has become one of the SEC’s fiercest annual rivalry games.
Another edition looms Saturday night. While LSU are heavy favorites (13.5), this game often delivers the unexpected, and should make for an entertaining night in Death Valley.
Here are 3 matchups that will define LSU vs. Florida.
LSU WR’s Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers vs. Florida’s young secondary
LSU and Florida games don’t often play out according to script, but assuming this one does, the biggest mismatch in the game is LSU’s dynamic duo against the Gators’ youth in the secondary.
Jason Marshall, a former 5-star corner and 3-year starter, is a steady veteran but has struggled in 1-on-1 situations on the perimeter this season. LSU loves to play Thomas, who leads the SEC in touchdown receptions with 11, out wide.
LSU pass catcher Brian Thomas Jr. is one of the most underrated prospects in the whole 2024 NFL draft.
6-4, 205 lbs, tremendous athlete with physicality. Going to be a WR1 at the next level, he's a game-changer.pic.twitter.com/pjqqQWMRfI
— Luca Sartirana (@SartiranaLuca) November 1, 2023
Even if Marshall Jr. can contain Thomas the way Alabama did a week ago, there’s less hope for the Gators against Malik Nabers, the SEC leader in receptions and receiving yards and one of the frontrunners for the Biletnikoff Award honoring the nation’s No. 1 wide receiver. Nabers tends to start in the slot, which likely means plenty of matchups on either Florida’s crop of youthful safeties, or Jaydon Hill, a smart, steady underclassmen who has great technique but lacks elite speed after multiple knee injuries.
WHAT A CATCH BY MALIK NABERS! ? pic.twitter.com/7gv8WEbtAY
— CBS Sports College Football ? (@CBSSportsCFB) November 5, 2023
Nabers is a magnificent route runner with glue for hands, and he’s posted 6 of his 10 touchdowns this season in Tiger Stadium. The Gators are stockpiling talent in the secondary, and players like outstanding young safety Jordan Castell are earning valuable repetitions this season. But they haven’t faced anything like LSU’s spectacular duo to date and after being eaten alive by Georgia in the passing game, it’s hard to envision them holding up for 4 quarters in Baton Rouge.
LSU’s offensive line protections, given Jayden Daniels and his health
Unfortunately, LSU may be without the services of star quarterback Jayden Daniels, who suffered a concussion on a controversial Dallas Turner tackle in the second half of LSU’s loss at Alabama.
Daniels was cleared to practice on Wednesday, and if that goes well, he could be cleared for contact on Thursday, Kelly said. Whether that leads to him being full go on Saturday night remains to be seen.
Daniels, the top-ranked quarterback in the country this season, per PFF, is a bona fide All-American candidate, but what makes him most special is his ability to extend plays and stress a defense with his legs. Daniels has rushed for 684 yards and 6 touchdowns at a nearly 7 yard per carry clip this season. That’s almost unfair in a world where you can also throw to the likes of Nabers and Thomas Jr.
“It relieves pressure on your tackles when your quarterback is versatile in the run game, of course. It changes the way you approach protections,” Brian Kelly told SDS of Daniels’ mobility at SEC Media Days. “We aren’t as stressed in protection and that makes us more multiple.”
If LSU is protecting backup quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, it changes things. Nussmeier is a capable thrower, but he’s not a runner, with a total of -58 yards rushing in his 3 seasons of college football. If he has to play, it changes how Florida can defend LSU, starting with the way they deploy All-American candidate Princely Umanmielen, the menace of an edge for the Gators who ranks 3rd in the SEC in quarterback pressures this season with 33.
Florida Gators EDGE Princely Umanmielen has a pass-rush win rate of 25.9% per PFF
1st for Power 5 defenders with 50+ pass-rush attempts.
He’s got a 44.6% win rate in true pass sets, also 1st in the P5 among qualifiers
19 run stops this season, 4th most for qualifying P5 EDGEs
— Brandon Olsen (@WNS_Brandon) November 6, 2023
Umanmielen has been one of the nation’s most productive pass rushers, especially against quarterbacks who are in pass sets or pocket passers. He’s a much more versatile player than he was a season ago, as his run-stop numbers dictate, but he’s best at getting after the quarterback. If Nussmeier is called into action, LSU will need to take fewer deep shots to account for Umanmielen’s presence. If Daniels plays, Umanmielen and the Gators will have to schematically attempt to account for Daniels’ ability as a runner — though you’d expect that to be limited given his recent concussion.
Florida’s ability to shorten the game by running the football
The path to a Florida win is narrow, but it runs through star running backs Trevor Etienne, playing in his home state for the first time, and Montrell Johnson, returning to Louisiana for the first time since transferring to Florida.
Etienne is a special player, with next level vision and agility and a burst if he gets into the second level of a defense. An absolute monster in space, Florida averaged 9 yards a play when Etienne touched the ball in last week’s loss to Arkansas.
Trevor Etienne. pic.twitter.com/ZNrvGOojKJ
— Jerry Jr. (@JBreezyII) November 5, 2023
Johnson is more of a north-south back, but he ranks in the top 5 in the SEC in yards after contact and leads the Gators in rushing yards with 555 this season. Florida’s 1-2 duo has faced an SEC-high 3 defenses that rank in the top 25 in rushing defense (Utah, Tennessee and Georgia) and should be able to produce yards against a LSU defense that ranks 63rd in rushing defense and 69th in success rate against the run.
While LSU has improved defensively since their porous start to the season, they are poor on 3rd down (allowing 66% in their 3 losses this year) and have missed 59 tackles, the most in the SEC. Can Florida do enough in the run game to keep their pass game, which has been steady for over a month behind the effective Graham Mertz, on schedule? If Florida has balance, they’ll score enough points to make this game interesting.
Prediction: LSU 42, Florida 31
The Gators will put up points and yards, but whether it is facing Daniels or Nussmeier, Florida’s defense, which is banged up and lacks depth, won’t be able to get enough stops to pull the stunner in Baton Rouge. Expect a 5th consecutive Tigers win over the Gators, and another missed opportunity at a signature win for Billy Napier and Florida.