GAINESVILLE — There’s a storm brewing in Gainesville, and it’s one that will linger longer than the Category 5 demolition the Miami Hurricanes handed out to Florida on Saturday on Steve Spurrier Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

In the eye of a hurricane, there is quiet.

Saturday, there was nary a sound in a sold out Swamp come the third quarter, when Miami scored for the 6th time in its first 8 possessions to claim a staggering 38-10 advantage on a field where Florida once was nearly invincible.

When the eye passes and the rains cease, the wreckage is revealed.

In Gainesville, Sunday’s rubble will reveal a program at a crossroads.

Florida isn’t a program in ruin. Florida has a long history of winning football, with 3 (claimed) national championships and 1 of the 10 winningest programs in the country since integration.

But the road to ruin is long, and with 0 SEC championships since 2008, 0 College Football Playoff appearances, and coming off a third consecutive losing season for the first time in the integration era, it is eminently fair to suggest that Florida has meddled in mediocrity far too long.

You may be mostly familiar with the story, but since the Canes drained almost any positives from The Swamp in a 41-17 win over the Gators on Saturday afternoon, revisiting the past helps explain just how Florida found its way to another fork in the road.

Since Tim Tebow and Brandon Spikes graduated as the winningest players in Florida history in 2009, Florida has tried — and failed — to return to national prominence with multiple head coaches. A disengaged and depressed Urban Meyer left after one Tebow-less campaign 2010. A not-ready Will Muschamp was beloved in the athletic building from 2011-2014 but couldn’t figure out how to score points. The eccentric and ill-tempered Jim McElwain won 2 SEC East titles in 2015 and 2016 but never seemed to fit culturally and was summarily dismissed after embarrassing the university by fabricating death threats to players in the midst of a disastrous 2017 campaign.

Dan Mullen succeeded where the others failed, making 3 consecutive New Year’s 6 bowl appearances in his nearly 4 seasons at the helm, but even that run produced only 1 team (2019’s 11-2 Orange Bowl champion) that was genuinely great on both sides of the football.

Mullen’s fervent belief in his own greatness and ability to out-scheme anyone in coaching was his downfall, even if he still spends social media time lambasting the bullies and blasphemers who think recruiting and talent evaluation matter as much as x’s and o’s.

Which brings us to Billy Napier, who rattled off 2 losing seasons before his third Florida team took the field and laid the largest opening day egg in Florida football history on Saturday.

“Give Miami credit. They have a good football team, they beat us today. I don’t have any excuses. They outplayed us. They outcoached us,” Napier told the media after Saturday’s debacle.

Napier is a high character human being, never one to shy away from accountability, and it showed at Saturday night’s press conference.

“It’s embarrassing, quite honestly.” Napier added. “Our team is embarrassed, too. But I believe we will respond. I believe in the character of this team. You have to make a choice to get back to work. That’s all you can do.”

After just 1 game, it’s still possible Florida responds. There are 11 games remaining on the most difficult college football schedule in the history of the sport, and each game presents the Gators with a genuine opportunity. Play better, play together, get better, win.

But in Year 3, Florida shows little signs of progress, and as much as I respect Napier for owning Saturday’s loss, it was truly bizarre to hear him suggest, “I think we’ve made progress” afterward.

If you want to see a team in Year 3 under a head coach that’s made progress, look at the Miami Hurricanes, who averaged 7.66 yards per play on the road against the Gators and looked formidable defensively despite replacing 3 starters in the secondary and losing All-American candidate and star defensive end Rueben Bain on the first drive of the game.

Like Napier at Florida, Mario Cristobal walked into a program doubting itself and lacking an identity.

Miami’s championship drought is even longer than Florida’s (21 seasons without a conference championship, none in the ACC), despite the benefit of playing in a weaker conference than the Gators.

No matter. Like Napier, Cristobal upgraded the talent in Coral Gables. Unlike Napier, Cristobal and the Hurricanes found ways to use that talent effectively throughout Saturday’s rout. While the Canes have tougher battles ahead, they looked like a program on the rise, a College Football Playoff contender with momentum and a freshly earned lopsided rivalry game victory to sell back on the recruiting trail, where Cristobal and the Canes are booming.

Miami, led by the silky Cam Ward, a powerful, blue-chip laden offensive line and a physical front 7, has an identity in Year 3 under Cristobal.

The Gators? Is anyone sure what they do well?

Montrell Johnson is a great running back, but after he ran 75 yards off tackle for a touchdown to cut Miami’s lead to 17-10, Florida didn’t come back to that formation or look until it was 38-10 Hurricanes. Where were the offensive wrinkles? Where was the sense of urgency?

Graham Mertz is a fine quarterback, but while Florida has portaled well and recruited high level talent at receiver, is there a true mismatch on this team in the passing game? If there is, why didn’t Florida attack a young Miami secondary with it?

Napier can preach culture and program building and discipline all he wants, but when the rubber meets the road, that’s just talking season fodder until Florida shows it on the field.

On Saturday, Florida’s “culture” looked undisciplined and unserious. The Gators committed two foolish personal fouls to extend Miami drives and, after a special teams player talked trash after covering a punt well while trailing 31-10, the Gators promptly gave up 27 yards on a swing pass on first down. Miami scored again on that possession, because of course it did.

It’s hard to take Napier’s insistence on patience and program building seriously when there’s no proof of concept. It’s even more difficult when it is increasingly unclear what Napier intends the concept to be.

What does Florida want to do well? What does Florida want its identity to be?

On Saturday, Florida was a program that shot fireworks off after singing Tom Petty’s “I Won’t Back Down” trailing a bitter rival 38-10.

From a program whose iconic coach Steve Spurrier once said “Winning is a habit, and unfortunately, so is losing,” isn’t shooting fireworks off down 28 points in the 4th quarter a little too on the nose?

How did this happen, and what does Florida do now?

Parting ways with Napier now would cost Florida $25.8 million, money the Gators conceivably could spend on more football players instead. It would also likely, though not assuredly, cost the Gators 5-star quarterback DJ Lagway, who led a 4th-quarter touchdown drive and offered a sliver of hope on a sweltering, sullen Saturday.

You don’t hitch the wagon of a program to a failed coach on account of one player, but you also don’t get to dismiss Napier without acknowledging that losing a player of Lagway’s caliber would be utterly devastating to whatever head coach comes next.

The better thing for Florida, obviously, would be to chalk this defeat up to rivalry game weirdness and start getting better, beginning in Week 2 against Samford, the lone team on the schedule Florida is almost certain to defeat.

In concussion protocol, Mertz may not play. That might be a blessing in disguise, as Florida could use the game to get Lagway, who didn’t have a package in the Miami game, more prepared to contribute long-term this season, which should help the Gators now and would help Lagway and Florida long-term. Samford also should provide new defensive coordinator Ron Roberts time to figure out what to do at defensive tackle, where Florida looked decidedly indecisive in its rotations and approach against the Hurricanes. With little interior push to worry about, the Hurricanes easily offset Florida’s pass rush, which was a strength of the team in fall camp.

Unfortunately for Florida, the “get well” vibes of Samford give way to the “good luck” vibe of Florida’s SEC schedule a week later, when Texas A&M visits The Swamp. If Florida loses that game, the wreckage and rubble will only grow more ruinous.

There’s an idea that Florida’s fan base is toxic, that this is a rapacious and rowdy group of reptilian reprobates who don’t understand that program building takes time and that winning is hard. I want to be demure or respectful to this line of thinking, but the facts are it is nonsense.

Florida’s fan base isn’t toxic. It’s wonderful and it is proud and it is patient. Florida fans have waded through the much and morass of a decade-plus of mediocrity, of rivals — yes, plural — climbing to the mountaintop. Florida fans have donated time and treasure to building two NIL collectives, building new, world-class facilities and putting in place the infrastructure to win big again.

Football, like life, is about family, and Florida’s football family simply wants a return on that investment.

If Billy Napier can’t begin to show signs that he’ll deliver that return soon, Florida’s administration will need to once again commit to finding someone who will.