I spent 2023 battling anyone who claimed that Billy Napier’s job was in jeopardy.

Paying $31 million to fire a coach at the end of Year 2 wasn’t going to be the move for Scott Stricklin, AKA the guy who committed nearly $60 million to Dan Mullen’s successor (that’s including the assistants and the well-documented support staff) after that flamed out by the end of Year 4. Mullen was Stricklin’s first football coach hire after he was gifted an opportunity to fire Jim McElwain with cause amid a disastrous Year 3 because he made up death threats.

See where I’m going with this yet? No? That’s OK, we’ve got time.

What Napier doesn’t have is just that — time.

In this world of college football, you only get so many opportunities to default to time, as if that’s the missing piece from your equation for success. So far, Napier’s equation for success spit out an 11-14 record with a revolving door at the coordinator spots. He still believes in himself enough as the primary offensive play-caller and he has yet to officially hire someone to exclusively handle special teams, which was a disastrous unit in Year 2 and would ideally improve in Year 3 against what some are dubbing as the toughest schedule in college football history.

Stricklin, in his unbiased opinion, doesn’t think that Napier is on the “hot seat” entering Year 3. That’s what he told The Orlando Sentinel in a recent interview.

“I don’t care. It doesn’t matter. It’s a made-up term,” he told The Orlando Sentinel. “People can put them on whatever list they want. It has nothing to do with reality.”

Reality is that Stricklin’s future is tied to Napier’s. Outside of his wife and kids, there shouldn’t be a bigger Napier supporter/apologist than Stricklin. In the SEC, athletic directors don’t get to fire 3 coaches. They get fired before that happens.

Stricklin needs Napier to succeed like I need a post-holiday diet.

I know, I know. Now is the part where you remind me that Florida is an “everything school,” and that I need to acknowledge that success in track and field, softball and baseball are also tied to an athletic director’s job security.

Remind me then which one of those programs committed $60 million to the head coach of one of those respective programs. Those other sports matter, but football is king. Hence, how those other sports receive the necessary funding to exist.

There’s great irony in that uphill battle facing Napier in Year 3. It was Stricklin who assembled a schedule that’ll feature 11 Power 5 opponents in 2024. Back in 2019, Stricklin sent out the bat signal to try and beef up Florida’s future schedule.

That was on the heels of Stricklin scheduling the Miami (FL) home-and-home in Aug. 2019, as well as the Utah home-and-home in Sept. 2019. Two years later in 2021, Stricklin lined up the anticipated 2-for-1 with UCF for 2024, 2030 and 2033. As it stands, Florida has at least 2 Power 5 opponents in nonconference play for each of the next 10 seasons.

Mind you, Stricklin’s push to beef up the nonconference slate came in the early stages of the Mullen era, which started with 3 consecutive New Year’s 6 Bowl berths. It made sense that Stricklin would be willing to bolster the schedule in anticipation of the 12-team Playoff arriving in the 2020s, which would allow more forgiveness for losses while still creating excitement for ticket sales.

Of course, when your program is now in the midst of 3 consecutive losing seasons, those objectives shift. And when 5 consecutive losses to close the season means a postseason-less Year 2 is in store, let’s just say those next 8 months are long. Good vibes are nowhere to be had.

Well, I suppose any positive DJ Lagway update is a vibe booster. Napier keeping the 5-star quarterback on board for the 2024 class was indeed monumental. The plan is to make him a part of the offense and to install multiple packages for him to develop as Graham Mertz’s backup. Lord knows that when he enters a game, the Florida faithful will rise to its collective feet.

There’s also a chance that the Florida faithful will be as apathetic of a fanbase as there is in the SEC by early November, and no amount of Lagway flashes will be worth the price of admission. There are no worse optics than a half-empty stadium in a blowout loss. That’s what Napier and Stricklin are fighting against in 2024.

Here’s the other thing. Even if Florida does avoid a shaky start and gets to 4-1 or even 5-0, it doesn’t change the other reality. Florida’s final 5 opponents are all coming off top-15 finishes. Four of those opponents played in New Year’s 6 Bowls, and the one who didn’t was LSU, which is currently riding its longest win streak ever against the Gators.

Ideal? Not at all. Could it perhaps set the bar low enough for Napier to earn praise for a 7-5 season? Absolutely.

Related: Sports fans in North Carolina will be able to bet on college sports this summer and this next football season using North Carolina betting apps.

But again, I’d be surprised if that was a Stricklin decision. UF President Ben Sasse, who took over that role in Feb. 2023, will have a much bigger say in that. Sasse didn’t’ hire Stricklin. That’s worth keeping in mind. If Stricklin is fired, rest assured that Napier’s days are numbered. That’s reality.

Reality is that plans at hiring announcements can only take you so far. At a certain point, you can no longer preach patience. Napier has reached that point, whether Stricklin publicly acknowledges it or not. It’s not noteworthy that an athletic director tried to give his coach a vote of confidence. In this world of recruiting and the transfer portal, it doesn’t make any sense for an AD to leave job-security questions open for interpretation.

It’s noteworthy how linked the athletic director and head coach are. It’ll be noteworthy if Florida suffers its 4th consecutive losing season, which hasn’t happened since the 1930s.

Maybe Napier’s plan will take flight in Year 3, and Stricklin will avoid headlines wherein he’s talking about his coach’s future. Faith in that, at this point, is somewhat blind.

Stricklin isn’t lacking in that.