They don’t make them like this.

It feels a bit like this year’s College Football Playoff National Championship is more like the title game of the NCAA Tournament. We have a Cinderella (TCU) and a blue blood (Georgia). We have the storybook run and the team trying to become the first to repeat in a decade.

When was the last time we had a title game like this? Even 2015 Clemson-Alabama wasn’t quite Cinderella vs. blue blood. I mean, TCU didn’t go to a bowl game last year, it replaced its statue coach (Gary Patterson) and it was picked to finish 7th in its own conference. Clemson was at least one of the nation’s better programs when it finally got over the hump and made its run in 2015.

There isn’t anything like this in recent memory. Will we get a thrilling national championship for the ages after the best semifinal round we’ve ever had? Or will we get a dud for the first time since the 2018 season, which was the last time the title game was played in California.

Let’s get you ready for Dawgs vs. Frogs:

1. The 2013 Auburn comps are there for TCU

First-year head coach inherits program coming off a bowl-less season with a murky quarterback situation to start the year and he wins thrilling game after thrilling game … yeah. TCU has a whole lot of that 2013 Auburn DNA in it. Hence, why there’s not a Playoff-era comp for the Horned Frogs.

But when you look at the side-by-side, you see why I keep coming back to that:

Title berth seasons
2013 Auburn
2022 TCU
1-score games
7
7
+3-score P5 games
3
3
Average margin vs. P5
+7.6
+14.4
Games tied/trailing in 4Q
6
5

You’re not supposed to get to a national title when you play with fire like that, especially in the Playoff era. That Auburn team might’ve relied a bit more on miracles — it’ll never not be amazing that the “Prayer at Jordan-Hare” and “Kick-6” happened in the same season — but it was TCU who became the first team since 1975 to win 7 consecutive games by 10 points or less.

It’s not as if TCU is some fraudulent team that has gotten all the lucky breaks. They don’t turn the ball over, they have a true dual-threat quarterback in Max Duggan, they’re solid defending on 3rd down and above all else, they believe in their first-year coach.

So if TCU really is 2013 Auburn, that means we’re about to get a title game for the ages just like when the Tigers had that classic clash with Florida State. For the sake of my personal entertainment, I’d welcome that with open arms.

2. This isn’t the 2021 Georgia defense … and that’s OK

Most units that lose 8 starters to the NFL Draft and also replace their senior captain because of a mid-season, season-ending injury … oh wait. Nobody deals with that kind of lost production, especially not from a historically dominant group.

In the regular season, nobody threw for 300 yards against Georgia. Then LSU and Ohio State both did. In the regular season, nobody hit 30 points against Georgia. Then LSU and Ohio State both did. In the regular season, nobody had 2 players hit 100 receiving yards in the same game against Georgia. Then LSU and Ohio State both did.

Even with a 4-week layoff following LSU’s 506-yard passing day against the Dawgs, Kirby Smart mostly struggled to find the right defensive answers against Ohio State. They mixed up coverages and they tried different blitzes, yet it was still a “bend-don’t-break” defense at best.

It’s unrealistic to think that Georgia is about to hold TCU, AKA the No. 4 offense in America, to some 13-point effort like it’s Tennessee all over again. TCU is solid with its interior offensive line. That’s why Duggan has only been sacked twice in the last 4 games. In other words, it’s not a given that Jalen Carter will feast after he was held in check against Ohio State.

When Georgia can’t get pressure, it can be had. If Duggan is protected, there could be moments similar to what we saw the last 2 times that Smart’s defense took the field. Of course, that’s still a massive “if.”

The best chance of that happening is …

3. Will Quentin Johnston look like Marvin Harrison Jr.?

Johnston is a stud. Just an absolute stud. He could be the first receiver off the board in the 2023 NFL Draft while Harrison could be the first receiver off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft. That’s daunting considering how great Harrison looked before going down in the Peach Bowl.

Both have similar frames and usage in terms of how they line up in their respective offenses:

2022
Harrison Jr.
Johnston
Wide snaps
646 (85.7%)
551 (84.9%)
Slot snaps
105 (13.9%)
89 (13.7%)
Inline snaps
3 (0.3%)
9 (1.3%)

One would think we’ll see a lot of Kelee Ringo on Johnston. Ringo will take plenty of chances, though it does feel like that’s what you need to try and eliminate Johnston. If there’s a difference between him and Harrison it’s that Johnston isn’t quite a possession receiver. He’ll hit you for more chunk plays like we saw against Michigan. He’s actually got more catches of 30 yards than Harrison (13 to 10), and Jalin Hyatt was the only Power 5 receiver with more grabs of 40 yards than Johnston.

What’s unique is that he can do that downfield or by virtue of making guys miss in space:

Georgia has had some pretty rare tackling issues in space these past 2 games. If that continues against Johnston, he could continue the late trend of hitting the century mark against the Dawgs.

4. But the good news for Georgia? This is the best offense in program history

Wait, you thought the 2014 Georgia offense was better than the 2022 group because of the raw scoring average numbers? Well, look a little closer.

If you take away the 56 (!) non-offensive points from that season, Georgia’s 2014 offense really averaged just 37 points per game, which was less than the 38.9 points/game adjusted total for the 2022 UGA offense. Even if we wanted to include the non-offensive points, 2014 Georgia averaged 34.8 points per game against AP Top 25 finishers, which is nearly 9 points less than this year’s group. And for the “yards/play” enthusiasts, it’s also worth noting that 2014 Georgia’s 6.79 yards per play wasn’t as good as the 2022 offense’s 7.09 yards per play.

Hat tip, Stetson Bennett IV. Hat tip, Todd Monken.

The progression shown by both of them played such a pivotal role in what we saw play out the last 2 games. That is, Georgia allowed 30 points and still won. Why is that significant? Before the SEC Championship, Georgia was 1-9 when it allowed 30 points under Smart and it was 73-6 when it held opponents below that number.

In consecutive games, we had to see Georgia’s offense do the heavy lifting, albeit in different ways. One came via an offensive blitzkrieg early and another came via an offensive comeback late. Both involved versatile attacks led by Bennett, as well as the underrated Kenny McIntosh.

In a 15-game season, Georgia likely won’t have a 1,000-yard rusher or a 1,000-yard receiver. Shoot, outside of Brock Bowers, there might not be a first-round skill-player in that group. But that hasn’t mattered this year. What did matter was how dynamic this offense was against quality foes even compared to last year. If you take away the non-offensive points, last year’s group averaged 24.5 points against AP Top 25 finishers. This year’s group is at 42.3 points in those contests.

Monday night would be a nice time to hit that average one more time.

5. Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson vs. AD Mitchell is suddenly a pivotal matchup

Hodges-Tomlinson isn’t big — he’s only 5-9 — but he maximizes that frame unlike any corner in college football. Hence, why he won the Jim Thorpe Award as the top defensive back in America. One of the reasons TCU always kept games within arm’s reach was because they had 2 lockdown corners who didn’t let an opposing group of wideouts take over.

Yeah. That’s impressive.

It’s a good thing Georgia just got AD Mitchell his first full game of snaps since the 2022 opener. And just as Mitchell did last year in the title game, he saved his best for last with a game-winning touchdown. The 6-4 receiver has to win some of those battles on the outside. If there’s one knock on this Georgia offense, it’s that they really haven’t had those big downfield weapons at receiver.

In 14 games, Georgia only had 3 passing plays of 40 yards to a wide receiver, and they were all to Arian Smith (Bowers and McIntosh also had 2 apiece). Those were Smith’s only grabs that went for 10 yards, as well.

Can Mitchell provide that missing element? Or will UGA choose to fight its battles elsewhere and try to focus more on the middle of the field with the tight ends? That in-game adjustment could be pivotal.

6. Which absence would be bigger — Kendre Miller or Darnell Washington?

It’s to be determined whether Miller or Washington will play after getting knocked out of their respective semifinal games. Both could come down to a game-time decision after going through warmups.

If Washington can’t go, some might assume that’s not overly significant because Brock Bowers is probably the best tight end in America and true freshman Oscar Delp showed promise in limited reps. But Washington has been phenomenal as a blocker — he earned PFF’s No. 7 run-blocking grade among FBS tight ends — and because of his development in the passing game, he allowed Georgia to run 12 personnel (1 running back, 2 tight ends) and disguise looks. Delp isn’t on Washington’s level in either facet.

I’d actually argue that a potential Washington absence would be felt more than Miller, who has been a breakout star for the TCU offense, but we just watched his backup Emari Demercado go off for 150 rushing yards and a score in the Fiesta Bowl. Plus, TCU still has the rushing ability of Duggan. As we saw against Kansas State, Duggan is more than capable of calling his own number for the entirety of a drive if needed. Miller’s absence wouldn’t suddenly turn TCU into a 1-dimensional offense.

I say that not to diminish the abilities of Miller because the guy has been a difference-maker, but he might be easier for TCU to replace than Washington with how unique his skill set is. Ideally, both players will be a go on Monday night and this will be a moot point.

7. Sonny Dykes and Kirby Smart both have historic feats on the line

Every national championship has “history on the line,” but this is unique for these coaches.

We haven’t seen a first-year head coach win it all since Larry Coker led Miami to a title in the 2001 season, though Coker inherited a team who finished 11-1 the previous year. That’s a touch different than the 5-7 TCU squad that Dykes took over. Gus Malzahn nearly pulled off that feat as a first-year head coach with that aforementioned 2013 squad and Urban Meyer led Ohio State to an unbeaten 2012 season, though his squad was ineligible for the postseason in the wake of the “TattooGate” scandal from the Jim Tressel era.

It would be one of the most impressive coaching feats in modern sports if Dykes capped TCU’s storybook season by knocking off powerhouse programs as a significant underdog in consecutive Playoff games.

Smart, on the other hand, is trying to become the first coach since Nick Saban to repeat as a national champ. If Smart could do that, he’d join Saban and Pete Carroll as the only coaches to repeat in the 21st century. Of course, Smart would be the first coach to repeat in the Playoff era, and of the 3 teams who repeated since 1980, none of them had to replace 15 (!) players from the NFL Draft. The 1995 Nebraska squad won it all after losing 7 players to the NFL Draft, 2004 USC had just 4 NFL Draft picks to replace and 2012 Alabama had 9 NFL Draft losses.

Posting a 15-0 national champ would put Smart in rarified air.

Either way, it feels like we’re about to see something extremely unique for a pair of battle-tested head coaches.

And a prediction … Georgia 41, TCU 35

I get why Georgia is a 2-score favorite. If the Dawgs were only favored by 5-6 points, you can bet an overwhelming amount of money would be put on them to take care of business. After all, we’re talking about a team that has 1 loss in the past 2 seasons and it came when Bryce Young played out of his mind in the SEC Championship. In that 2-year stretch, UGA is 28-1 and only 4 teams have stayed within 1 score.

But I think TCU embodies that 2013 Auburn spirit and gives us 1 more thriller for the ages.

I do believe Johnston and Duggan will connect for some chunk plays, and while I don’t think we should expect to see TCU’s backfield dominate, I wouldn’t be surprised if Duggan’s legs gave Georgia some problems. This TCU team is never out of it, and even if it feels like Georgia is controlling the game early, history suggests it’s just a matter of time before Dykes’ squad fights its way back.

Having said all that, no, I can’t pick against Georgia.

How many times do we need to see Bennett throw his cape on before we can admit that the guy is brilliant? All he’s done is step up and deliver in these big-time games. You can’t bet against him at this point. Even if TCU finds itself leading late, it’ll still feel like a Bennett-led comeback is imminent.

I believe Georgia sweats this one out for 60 minutes. The Dawgs might lead for the majority of it, but they’ll struggle to put TCU away. That is, until they sack Duggan on the final play to close the book on another title.

There’s gonna be some property destroyed in Athens on Monday night. Again.