Will Ohio State be 2017 Alabama? Breaking down the similarities and the all-important difference

If I’m a Georgia fan, I’m sleeping well these days.

Exorcising the 1980 demons was one thing. Following that with a decisive SEC Championship victory to clinch the first 13-0 start in program history was next-level impressive.

Sleep is easier to come by knowing that there’s no longer anything holding Kirby Smart back. UGA is certainly not being held back by Stetson Bennett IV, who just put together an FBS-best quarterback rating of 185.21 in 5 games against teams that are currently ranked in the AP Top 25. UGA isn’t being held back by its defense, either, despite the fact that it lost 8 players to the NFL Draft, and then senior captain Nolan Smith to a season-ending injury.

Georgia fans should sleep well. They’ve earned that.

But if there’s one thing that could prompt them to wake up in a cold sweat, it’s this thought — what if 2022 Ohio State is 2017 Alabama?

The fear could be that like 2017 Alabama, Ohio State suffered a rivalry loss and got a backdoor way into the Playoff that ultimately netted a national title. The 2017 Alabama team that just looked a bit off all year just needed a seat at the table and, well, Georgia fans know how that went down. The Tide played with house money and Nick Saban made the all-time move to switch from Jalen Hurts to Tua Tagovailoa in halftime of the national championship.

To compare the 2 teams doesn’t necessarily mean their 2 paths have to be identical. The most important similarity would be stunning Georgia in the Playoff en route to a title after it looked like all hope was lost.

So is this worth losing sleep over? Or should Georgia fans rest easy knowing that there are too many differences between the 2 teams?

Let’s dig into that:

The similarities

There are plenty.

For starters, both were ranked inside the top 2 of the preseason AP Poll and they kicked off their seasons with nonconference wins against top-5 teams. They were defensive-fueled victories wherein we sort of nitpicked the offensive effort from a preseason Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback. But for both teams, the positive was that for defensive units who ended the previous season with massive questions, it was a convincing statement to kick off the new year.

Hurts wasn’t quite as proven as a passer as CJ Stroud, but both experienced some odd offensive lulls over the course of the year, despite what the raw numbers indicated.

Heading into Michigan, Ohio State had been held to 13 first-half points or less in 3 of 4 games. That included a 7-7 halftime score amidst inclement weather at Northwestern, as well as a 13-10 halftime deficit at Maryland. Second-half rallies were often fueled by the ground game and defense, especially the Penn State comeback when JT Tuimoloau totally took over.

Heading into Auburn, Hurts had been held to 1 or fewer passing touchdowns in each of his 5 previous SEC games. Outside of Calvin Ridley, he struggled to develop a rapport with Alabama’s other talented, but young pass-catching options.

There were cracks in the foundation for both teams, despite what that 11-0 record suggested heading into rivalry weekend. As competent rivals are prone to do, they ripped apart that foundation.

They were undisciplined (both had 9 penalties), offenses were too 1-dimensional and in those gotta-have-it moments playing for a division title, the second-half adjustments weren’t there. Alabama was a combined 4-for-15 on 3rd and 4th down while Ohio State was 5-for-17. Alabama surrendered 6 passing plays of 20 yards while Ohio State was hit for 4 (2 of those went for touchdowns). Alabama was held without a point in the final 28 minutes while Ohio State was held without a touchdown in the entire second half.

Both teams fell to No. 5 after that devastating first loss and needed a break during conference championship weekend to make the field. That unbeaten 2017 Wisconsin team had to lose to, ironically enough, Ohio State and 2022 USC had to lose to Utah. Both things happened and the 4-seed was the reward on Selection Sunday … amidst controversy.

So you get it. There are similarities. And just in case you needed a reminder of what those are, here you go:

And also, both teams were led by second-year starters at quarterbacks who were previously awarded their conference’s offensive player of the year honor. Both quarterbacks had excellent second seasons as starters, though you could argue pre-Playoff, they came up short in meeting some understandably lofty preseason expectations. Both of them had significant dips in quarterback rating against teams who finished as unranked foes (Stroud was 189.3, Hurts was 162.9) compared to ranked foes (Stroud was 149.0, Hurts was 130.7).

Behind them, both had 5-star backups waiting for their opportunity after looking promising in limited reps. Kyle McCord appeared in garbage time in 6 games and attempted 20 passes while Tagovailoa also appeared in 6 pre-Playoff games and attempted 53 passes.

So does that mean McCord is about to replace an ineffective Stroud and end Georgia’s national title hopes? Not so fast.

After all, there are some key differences that need to be discussed here:

The differences

You could make the case that 2017 Alabama and 2022 Ohio State are inverses of each other in terms of their offensive and defensive ranks. Ohio State has the No. 2 offense and the No. 13 defense in America while Alabama had the No. 15 offense and the No. 1 defense. Hence, why their average scoring margins are so similar.

But this is about the differences. There’s 1 that should be obvious.

That 2017 Alabama team was getting healthier as the Playoff approached, and that certainly can’t be said about 2022 Ohio State.

The Tide had 3 linebackers return from injury in the regular season finale against Auburn (Terrell Lewis, Mack Wilson and Christian Miller). Lewis and Miller hadn’t played since going down in the opener against Florida State. Fittingly in the Sugar Bowl, Lewis took down Kelly Bryant on a scramble to force a field goal on Clemson’s biggest 3rd down of the game and Wilson took a tipped pass back for a dagger pick-6. In other words, an already elite defense became even more elite by virtue of getting healthy at the right time.

An already elite Ohio State offense doesn’t look like it’s about to experience that. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who entered the year as a preseason All-American, isn’t playing against Georgia, and neither is top tailback TreVeyon Henderson. Both dealt with nagging injuries and were ruled early inactives for the Peach Bowl.

The good news for the Buckeyes is that backup tailback Miyan Williams is expected to be healthier than he was when he was forced out of action late in the season.

If Ohio State were adding all 3 of those players for the semifinal, I would’ve added that to the “similarities” section, but I don’t think you can make the case that the Buckeyes are going to be getting a shot in the arm without Smith-Njigba and Henderson.

That’s not to say it’s impossible for Ohio State to go into Atlanta and put up monster passing yards on Georgia. After all, we just saw LSU do that to the Dawgs in Mercedes-Benz Stadium and we know the Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka are more than capable of going off.

Speaking of that, I definitely forgot to have the add the “2017 Alabama and 2022 Ohio State are both playing against Georgia in Mercedes-Benz Stadium” thing under similarities. Oh well. Better late than never.

Another difference? Look at the quarterbacks that 2017 Alabama had to get through compared to what awaits 2022 Ohio State.

Alabama faced first-year starter Kelly Bryant, who was a fine player but he was by no means Deshaun Watson or Trevor Lawrence. And then the Tide got to face true freshman Jake Fromm.

Compare that to Ohio State, which now gets to face 25-year-old Stetson Bennett IV on the heels of a 4th-place finish in the Heisman Trophy voting. Thought that was a sham? Bennett has been brilliant against quality competition this year. Remember that QB rating vs. current AP Top 25 teams stat I brought up in the intro? Not only was that easily No. 1 in FBS in 2022, but if you compare it to the 275 qualified quarterbacks in the Playoff era (min. 4 games), it’s No. 6 behind the likes of 2017 Baker Mayfield, 2018 Kyler Murray, 2019 Joe Burrow, 2020 Mac Jones and, ironically enough, 2021 Stroud.

Mind you, that was after Bennett pulled off a 4th quarter comeback against Nick Saban to lead Georgia to its first national championship since 1980. Say what you want about Bennett. He’s far more proven than the favorable opposing quarterback draw that 2017 Alabama got in its 2 Playoff matchups.

But regardless of how you feel about Bennett, there’s a difference that trumps anything you can break down going into this game — Ryan Day ain’t Saban.

I won’t go full Jim Harbaugh and say that Day woke up on 3rd base and thought he hit a triple, but we’re talking about someone with 1 career Playoff victory, and it was followed up by a beatdown loss in his lone national championship appearance … against Saban (don’t tell me Justin Fields’ ribs were the difference in a 52-24 game).

In 2017 when Alabama took on Georgia, Saban was coaching in a national championship for the 7th time. Meanwhile, Smart was in his 28th career game as an FBS head coach after 11 years working on Saban’s staff (don’t forget the 1 year at LSU and the 1 year with the Miami Dolphins). At the time, Saban was still Smart’s boogeyman.

With all due respect to Day, who is one of the elite coaches in the sport even if his own fan base disagrees because of 2 losses to Michigan, he’s nobody’s boogeyman. Not yet, at least.

Maybe he will be Smart’s new boogeyman by night’s end and Georgia fans will spend an entire offseason losing sleep over Day’s in-game adjustments, much like we saw with Saban and that 2017 Alabama team. After all, that was also the first Saban-Smart showdown. Saban coached like someone with nothing to lose, and perhaps on the heels of a similar Playoff entry, Day could take a page out of the G.O.A.T.’s playbook.

Time will tell. My advice to Georgia fans is simple.

Sleep with 1 eye open for the next couple weeks.