Alabama’s victory over Clemson surprised me about as much as Tom Brady finding Gronk for a red-zone touchdown.

Georgia’s victory over Oklahoma was a bit more unexpected. Not the result — I also picked Georgia — but how it happened. It’s one thing to run for 200-plus yards for the 12th time. It’s quite another to fall behind by two scores and get back in the game solely because of explosive run plays.

What Alabama did to Clemson was repeatable if not spectacular. What Georgia did to Oklahoma was more impressive, but less reliable.

So who wins Monday night’s National Championship Game? I’ll save that answer for our staff debate, which we’ll publish Sunday night.

But I can make a very strong case for each side.

Why Alabama will win

At the end of the day, we’re still talking about a Georgia offensive line that was thoroughly dominated eight weeks ago at Auburn, and a freshman quarterback who is accurate but much more game manager than game changer.

Those two issues almost always spell doom against Nick Saban and Alabama.

Who was the last true freshman quarterback to beat Alabama since Saban arrived?

Johnny Manziel and Trevor Knight were redshirt freshmen when they took down the Tide. Cardale Jones, though making just his second career start, was sophomore when he led Ohio State past Bama in the 2014 Playoff semifinal.

Only one true freshman managed to do what Jake Fromm is attempting: Wesley Carroll, who was under center when Mississippi State beat the Tide 17-12 in 2007.

We’re a long, long way from 2007.

Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

No true freshman quarterback has led his team to a national title since Oklahoma’s Jamelle Holieway. We’re even farther away from 1985.

Jalen Hurts came oh-so-close last season. He and Deshaun Watson are the only quarterbacks to make it to back-to-back Playoff championship games. Watson won the title on his second attempt. Now Hurts gets his chance.

Alabama avenged last year’s title loss earlier this week in the Sugar Bowl semifinal, but don’t think anybody is satisfied. There’s still work to be done. There’s still pain to be erased.

Fourteen and one was an abject failure, remember? Bo Scarbrough couldn’t finish the game last year. Alabama’s defense couldn’t finish the job.

Saban is the master of motivation. Critics crushed his defense all year, and it responded with authority against Clemson.

Now they’re questioning Hurts and the offense and whether Smart’s “Alabama East” is about to turn Tuscaloosa into “Georgia West.”

They’re poking the bear. Until proven otherwise, that’s the most dangerous thing anybody can do in college football.

Why Georgia will win

Besides the fact this will look, sound and feel like a de facto home game, right?

Kirby Smart’s history with Alabama’s offensive players and Saban’s preferred play list is the biggest advantage Georgia has.

And unlike the previous Saban assistants who were torched after leaving Tuscaloosa, Smart actually has the players to do something with his insight.

Alabama isn’t going to reinvent itself. It’ll ride or die in the trenches, with its run game. Georgia has allowed at least 180 yards rushing in three of its past five games, but its best game in that stretch was its second chance against Auburn. Granted, Kerryon Johnson wasn’t close to 100 percent, but the Dawgs cut the Tigers’ rushing total in half in Round 2, holding them to a scant 117 yards and no touchdowns.

We often think of Alabama’s running prowess as machine-like, but occasionally the plug is pulled. Twice in the past five games, Alabama was held to fewer than 150 rushing yards and fewer than 3.4 yards per carry.

Georgia’s front seven is plenty good enough to reproduce those kinds of numbers. That certainly will be Objective 1.

The Dawgs might bring an extra defender into the box, daring a guy who is 26-2 to beat them with his arm.

I’ve given up waiting for Alabama’s passing game to find its stride in 2017, and I’m certainly not expecting Hurts to throw for 300 yards in the national title game. But I’m not pinning Bama’s passing problems on Hurts, either. (Though I continue to wonder, fairly, why Saban hasn’t turned to Tua Tagovailoa when the game dictates passing. And I still think we’ll see Tagovailoa at some point for a series or two Monday.)

Alabama obviously misses O.J. Howard, but the lack of production from the tight end position is more than glaring. It’s a schematic disadvantage. And it’s not even Bama’s biggest problem.

They still haven’t found a suitable replacement for ArDarius Stewart. With so much pre-snap attention on Calvin Ridley, Stewart actually led the Tide with 864 receiving yards and 8 TD catches last season.

Ridley is still Ridley in 2017, but the supporting cast might as well be the four Jacksons to his Michael. Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III, Cam Sims and Robert Foster have combined for just 46 catches. Ruggs has 5 of the quartet’s 9 TD receptions.

Smart is going to take away Ridley. Believe that. There is no way Ridley is going off against the former defensive coordinator who faced him every day in practice.

Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Can Jeudy and Ruggs, in particular, shine in one-on-one matchups against a veteran Georgia secondary? If you’re a Dawgs fan, you have to like your chances in those matchups.

Offensively, Georgia ripped off seven runs longer than 20 yards against Oklahoma. That won’t happen again Monday. The Dawgs scored TDs on runs of 75, 50, 38 and 27. Not only is that not happening again Monday, the longest TD run Alabama has allowed this season was 16 yards — on a scramble by Jarrett Stidham.

The Tide allowed 8 rushing TDs all year; they covered, in total, 43 yards.

So Georgia can’t expect to go all LSU in its approach and pound its way to a parade.

In that regard, I like the flexibility Sony Michel and D’Andre Swift provide Jim Chaney, who consistently dials up calls to get them the ball in space.

No, Jake Fromm doesn’t have Jacob Eason’s arm strength, but he’s accurate, on time and generally safe. He’s more elusive in the pocket than most assume, too.

At this point, you’d have to trust Georgia’s ability to throw the football more than Alabama’s, and ultimately, as the run games battle to a draw, that advantage is what could bring another national title to Athens.