Paul Finebaum has plenty of experience discussing SEC Championship Games, especially when they involve Alabama. But the ESPN commentator is not leaning the Crimson Tide’s direction this week.

During a visit this week with syndicated radio host Dan Patrick, Finebaum outlined the likelihood of an Alabama upset, as Georgia is about a touchdown favorite in the game set for Saturday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

“I think it’s pretty low,” Finebaum said of Alabama’s chances at upsetting Georgia. “And you’re talking to somebody who’s spent most of his life in Alabama. Not that our predictions matter, but I will give you a stat. I have not picked against Alabama since the Iron Bowl in 2010 when Cam Newton was the Auburn quarterback. And by the way, they’ve only been an underdog one time since then. So it’s not like I’m really doing anything or going against Vegas. You would be very wealthy if you had bet on Alabama every game over the last 11 years.”

Finebaum said it’s difficult for him to buy in that Nick Saban can still be the difference for Alabama, as he was on the sidelines during the loss to Texas A&M earlier this season, and last week in the Iron Bowl when Finebaum said, “Alabama should have lost.”

“I just don’t think the matchup goes very well,” Finebaum said. “I know Kirby Smart’s team is in the Playoffs, but they don’t care about that, they want to beat Alabama.”