SEC ‘What-If?’ No. 4: What if Jake Fromm decided to return to Georgia for his senior season?
When Georgia QB Jake Fromm declared for the 2020 NFL Draft, it surprised a number of analysts and fans. After a fantastic 2018 season, Fromm regressed under new OC James Coley’s offense in 2019.
Here’s a look at his numbers from 2018 compared to 2019:
2018: 207-for-307 (67.4%), 2,761 yards, 9.0 yards per attempt, 30 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
2019: 234-for-385 (60.8%), 2,860 yards, 7.4 yards per attempt, 24 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
Yeah, that’s not what NFL teams wanted to see. After earning first-round buzz heading into the 2019 season, that all seemingly evaporated as the season went on.
Yet, even with 1 year of eligibility remaining, Fromm decided to go to the NFL.
We all know what happened next. Fromm didn’t hear his name called in Round 1, Round 2, Round 3 or even Round 4. In the 5th round, the Buffalo Bills finally took a chance on him, selecting him with the No. 167 overall pick.
That’s almost certainly not what Fromm had in mind when he declared for the draft. So, it’s worth asking — what if he decided instead to return for his senior season?
Georgia’s new offense
This offseason, the Bulldogs moved on from Coley and hired Todd Monken as the new offensive coordinator. Monken spent the 2019 season as the Cleveland Browns’ offensive coordinator, working with QB Baker Mayfield.
His offense with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2018 led the NFL by passing for 320.3 yards per game. It’s clear that is the sort of explosiveness Kirby Smart wanted. The Bulldogs struggled with the big play in 2019. Georgia completed just 19 pass plays covering 30 yards or more. That ranked 6th in the SEC, despite playing at least 1 more game than everybody except LSU. Tennessee and Missouri were among the 5 teams that completed more 50-yard passes than Georgia (3). Arkansas and Vanderbilt were among the 7 teams that had more 60-yard pass plays than the Dawgs (1).
The biggest question mark about Fromm entering the NFL Combine was his arm strength, and he didn’t exactly do much to dispel those concerns. It’s fair to wonder if he would have been a good fit in Monken’s system.
But Fromm is certainly a proven winner and has command of the locker room. Can Jamie Newman step in and lead the way at a similar level? He’s already been dealt a rough hand with the COVID-19 pandemic canceling spring practices.
Fromm’s year of working with guys like George Pickens, Dominick Blaylock, Demetris Robertson, James Cook and others could have been invaluable during times like these. While Newman gets to speak with Monken and the skill position players virtually, there’s no replacement for on-field chemistry.
Does Fromm give the Dawgs a better Playoff chance?
So, the big question is — would the Bulldogs have rather had Fromm or Newman? Fromm has familiarity at Georgia, but would that have even mattered with a new offensive coordinator and a new system?
The question I keep going back to is the Georgia offensive line. The Dawgs lost Andrew Thomas, Isaiah Wilson and Solomon Kindley to the NFL Draft. Cade Mays transferred to Tennessee. The only starter who will return is Ben Cleveland.
Yes, there are plenty of highly-rated recruits waiting in the wings, and Jamaree Salyer could be the next first-round pick for Georgia offensive linemen, but there are going to be chemistry issues that need to be worked out.
Newman’s scrambling ability would allow him to extend plays when the new-look Georgia line inevitably breaks down, especially early in the year. (Georgia plays at Alabama in Week 3.) However, Fromm’s familiarity with the returning receivers could lead to him getting the ball out of his hands sooner.
Basically, with the way Fromm performed in 2019, it’s tough to say he would undoubtedly be a better choice for Georgia in 2020. At most, it’s a toss-up with Newman. But, if Fromm did return, that leads to another important question.
Where does Jamie Newman end up?
Obviously, if Fromm decided to return to Georgia for his senior season, the Bulldogs wouldn’t have been active on the graduate transfer quarterback market. Thus, Newman, a talented dual-threat quarterback from Wake Forest, probably ends up elsewhere.
A number of big-name programs were recruiting Newman. In addition to Georgia, Oregon, Washington, Miami and Maryland were the favorites to get him:
According to @BruceFeldmanCFB, Wake Forest grad transfer QB Jamie Newman is considering Georgia, Maryland, Washington, Oregon and Miami (FL),
Jake Fromm's decision feels like it'll be the domino to get the grad transfer QB market going.
— Connor O'Gara (@cjogara) January 8, 2020
Yahoo’s Pete Thamel called Oregon the favorite for Newman at one point. The Ducks lost star QB Justin Herbert to the draft, where he went No. 6 overall to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Let’s say Newman does end up at Oregon — the other team on that list that gives him the best chance to make the College Football Playoff. He almost certainly beats out redshirt sophomore Tyler Shough, who is the current favorite to replace Herbert.
Then, things get interesting. Oregon’s 2020 schedule provides ample opportunities for the Ducks to make statements. In Week 1, they host FCS powerhouse North Dakota State. In Week 2, Ohio State comes to Autzen Stadium. In Week 5, the Ducks host Washington. In Week 10, USC visits Eugene.
Those are 4 of the Ducks’ toughest games, and they’re all at home. Adding Newman to the offense along with RB CJ Verdell, OL Penei Sewell and a defense that is loaded with talent makes the Ducks a legit Playoff contender.
Can they still make it to the final 4 without Newman? The Ducks have the talent, but landing a quarterback like Newman would have helped.
Verdict
Fromm going to the NFL might not have a huge impact on Georgia this fall. Newman is a solid replacement and might actually fare better as the Dawgs revamp their offensive line.
But a potential Playoff team in Oregon definitely missed out through Fromm’s decision to go pro. Mario Cristobal would have loved to have Newman in Eugene for his final year of eligibility.
If Jake Fromm returned for 2020, UGA would be a lock for the SEC East crown.
I think Fromm’s high football IQ would have allowed him to thrive in Monken’s system.
The threat of a REAL passing game would eliminate those 8-man boxes and in turn open up the running game.
But alas, it’s all academic now.
Hardly a lock with or without Fromm. But nobody will ever know. Newman is a ? Until he plays at this new level. Most of the “experts” are high on him but it is just different in this conference. Fromm was proven, Newman isn’t.
I don’t know much about Newman as I didn’t watch any Wake Forest football, and I don’t know anyone that did. I don’t know if UGA is better off with him as the starter or not. It does seem pretty clear that Jake would have been better off returning to school. He was drafted late by a team that seems like a very poor fit for him. He needed another year in a modern offense.
Went to the Natty with Fromm as a first year starter. We’ll do it with Newman too.
Yessir
In your dreams
Georgia always looking at the next year. We really do feel sorry for you guys. A fella in my hometown here in Alabama is a GA season ticket holder and always praising the future. 1980.
What happened, happened. He’s going to the NFL. Deal with it, people
I understand the eternal optimism of Georgia fans. We LSU fans have been there. Our offense last year was a perfect storm of experience, system change, and individual improvement from every position group. Georgia’s situation this year is very different. Realistically, I think the loss of four linemen could be a problem, and I think there is only one proven receiver. I don’t expect much from Georgia’s offense this year. Monken can make all the right changes to the system, but the players have to execute. Seeing is believing.
There are more issues that need addressing beyond the quarterback position.
Like a cure for covid perhaps, or watering down our monetary system to peso levels, or people out in public without masks because they could gove a ratz arse about anyone else, or…oh wait, did you mean football wise? My bad…
IMO fixing the o-line is just as important as well as finding warm bodies who don’t have butter for hands (*cough* Landers *cough*) at WR.
I don’t know if fixing is the right word, next man up. Gotta agree with the Landers comment, unstoppable if he could only hold on to the rock. He and Pickens, with Blaylock and one or two freshmen surprises (Darnell, Marcus) who sure could have used the spring ball.
Darnell and Marcus wouldn’t have used the spring ball, amigo. No estan early enrollees. Still, it would’ve really helped Justin Robinson get a leg up.
I was at the Georgia v. Tenn. game last season at Neyland, and the Georgia offence did something that amazed me. When they had the ball, on multiple attempts, Fromm had 6+ seconds in the pocket on one drive. I counted at least one instance where there were almost 8 seconds. Tennessee’s defence wasn’t a slouch last year, especially in the first half vs. Georgia, so the fact that their Oline was so strong must have given Fromm some confidence. I think Monken is the right guy for the job, and I think the article hit the nail on the head by saying that Fromm would have technically been in the same boat as Newman. With Monken’s new-look offence and a freshman Oline, I guess Fromm didn’t want his draft stock to drop more than it did from the 2018 season and headed to the NFL. Nevertheless, I think Newman will take a few games to get into the swing of things in the SEC, but should adjust pretty nicely towards by week 4.
Nice assessment, I hope if we have a season that you’re right…
LeghumperU: Is he really telly the truth?
I am not sure What Reason prompted Jake Fromm to turn Pro. Maybe the loss of all those linemen (or) just not being happy with the Offensive Coordinator’s play-Calling (or) maybe he was just ready to move on ? Only Jake knows why.
But my thinking is that “IF” he’d come back=East Division Champ for the Dawgs. Jake would have shined under Monken’s Offense.
Frankly Newman would have been in a better environment at Oregon, as that conference does not produce the Elite Defensive Backs/Safeties like the SEC and his numbers would have been better than playing in the SEC. At this time Jamie probably knows that his decision may have been wrong…but this article is all about the Rear-View-Mirror…yesterday’s gone.
Talking over it won’t change anything. Additionally, all 2020 player performances will have to taken with a grain of salt IMO since they missed spring practice and could potentially miss more, so comparing Newman to Fromm won’t necessarily be even.
That being said, we still need to give Newman an o-line to throw behind and reliable targets besides Pickens to throw it to.
If Fromm returns for his senior season, Georgia does’nt win the east
Why?
Because Florida is on the rise. Fromm’s arm strength would come into play. And considering they had a down year last season, I don’t see much improvment.
Fair points but They were 11-2 with a pathetic OC game plan and they were Sugar Bowl champions last year so don’t need much improvement, just a little. Fromm familiarity with his receivers in year 2 with most of the elite ones would certainly have led to a little improvement and with the d we have returning, I think he made a huge mistake leaving…I think he left because Coley and him didn’t jell. Doesn’t automatically mean he and Monken would have either but it certainly couldn’t have regressed any worse imho
But look. With all the five star talent, Georgia should be out there winning championships. But half of the 5-stars y’all recruit don’t live up to the hype completely. Y’all beat Baylor. Baylor was a good team but they were built with 3-stars and 2-stars. Look at y’all’s recruiting and Baylor’s recruiting. That should’ve been an easier win for Georgia. Now I’m not going to talk too much because we lost to Minnesota, a team that doesn’t recruit very well either. But anyway, the point is, Georgia wasn’t dominant in 2019 like they were in 2017 and 2018. I think it’s because y’all lost so many good receivers which maybe states that Fromm might have been a little bit overrated. With Newman this year, y’all have more fire power and a stronger arm, which would result in more success than if you had Fromm.
We’re a field goal and a TD away from one potentially two Natties in the last 3 years, I think we’re doing pretty well. Let’s face it, a game 14 win against Ok in any year preceding the CFPs would most likely have been enough but alas, woulda shoulda coulda is a wasted talking head point. Bottom line is Kirby has accomplished something Richt or jis other post 1980 HBCs never have, he’s won the division 3 straight years. Only two other SEC coaches have ever accomplished that since the 92 start of the SEC championship game, Spurrier and Saban. I like the trajectory he has on.
^is on
Besides, I know that I am in the minority here but facing 6 bye teams last year didn’t help but that being said Burrow and company were a team of destiny…the loss to CootU while shocking as it was,would not have mattered. A 2nd rematch in the CFP against them wasn’t going to happen either way the way they handled us in Atlanta.
I do have to say though, if we’re talking only a field goal away… Do you know how much Auburn lost to LSU by this year? It was three points.
Had we recovered that onside kick, and we almost did, Carlson has a pretty good shot at booting one through if we did not score a TD. If we had scored that game goes on to OT with a dead LSU crowd that had been very sluggish all day. We’d have the momentum and likely win that game. Even if we’d still lost to y’all, we beat Bama, so we’d be going to the SEC championship and with our Iron Bowl momentum, we’d likely beat y’all to go to the CFP.
So there we have it. I realize a lot would have to fall into play for that to happen, and Georgia was way closer directly to a championship than my scenario for Auburn, but honestly everything that would’ve to fall into play for us is favoring us.
So if we want to talk a field goal away, there you go.
And if we’re talking coach accomplishments, the only two coaches that have beaten Saban at Alabama are Ed Oregon and Gus Malzahn. Oregon did it this year. Gus did it 2013, 2017, and 2019.
Kirby has not beaten Saban…
Unfortunately none of Saban fledglings have ever beaten him and unfortunate number two is Kirby doesn’t get the opportunity to play Saban every year, sometimes twice…but that being said for some strange reason I actually become a WarBuzzardU Gus Bus fan every November…strange yes?
That is fair, Kirby has played Saban a lot but not annually. Just a bit strange but hey, we’ll take all the Saban haters we can get.
Oh, I don’t hate Saban at all, he’s the goat…it’s the gumps and updykes that make me despise TrunksnorterU…dumm arsse fans don’t even fill their stadium every game, they don’t deserve the winning tradition of Bama and they certainly don’t deserve Nick…
If Fromm returns it probably doesn’t drastically help or hurt GA, they would have known what they had at QB though. But it’s not likely he improves his draft position. In fact he may have turned himself into an undrafted FA for 2021 Draft, so he probably made the right decision as far as the Draft goes.
Agreed
Why Can’t Georgia fans agreed with you all? I guess they are in denial?
I guess so lol tell me about it.
Way too early for this what if, especially from UGA’s perspective. If Newman crashes and they get bad QB play and lose several games, Fromm’s early departure was disastrous. If Newman wins the Heisman and leads them to the NC, Fromm’s decision was probably a blessing in disguise for UGA.
Personally, I think Fromm saw a third offensive system in as many years, important personnel losses, and a possibly weaker draft, so he decided to shoot his shot. He knew that his ceiling was basically 3rd QB pick regardless of which year he entered the draft, and he probably understood that his greatest weakness, arm strength, wasn’t going to drastically increase with another year. Considering that the extra year could also result in an injury or another relatively unimpressive season, he decided to play it safe. Unfortunately for him, an unpredictable pandemic arose that prevented him from meeting with teams in person to sell them on his football mind/intangibles, which he was probably hoping would help him get drafted higher than he was.
Second paragraph says it all very well…good take! Agreed
I’m one that picks GA to still win the East this year. If Fromm was back I’d say it even more emphatically! Just my humble opinion.
Georgia screwed the pooch and titles away by letting Fields go to Ohio State. Fromm wouldn’t do much more than he already has at UGA.
Agreed. They still seem to find a way to lose a game most years that they shouldn’t.