The 1 stat that prevents me from thinking Kirby Smart is Mark Richt 2.0
Every time Kirby Smart loses a game that ends Georgia’s chances of ending the 1980 jokes, you can count on it like clockwork.
You know. The Mark Richt comparisons.
Go figure that being compared to arguably the SEC’s No. 3 or No. 4 coach of the 21st century is considered a jab, but when you’ve reached the heights that Smart has reached, it comes with the territory.
I’ll spare you the rant on Smart being wired differently than Richt, and how the former’s relentless recruiting ways and Nick Saban-like disdain for anything less than perfection should be what separates the coaches. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, but there’s a 0.0% chance that Smart would’ve been cracking jokes with Holly Rowe at halftime of that 2008 Blackout Game like Richt was. Just sayin’.
The next time that someone makes the Richt vs. Smart comparison, remind them of an important stat that’ll be in play this weekend. No, it isn’t that through their first 62 games at UGA, Smart is 48-14 (29-9 vs. SEC) compared to 50-12 (30-10 vs. SEC) for Richt. I get that.
Consider this, though. On Saturday, Georgia won’t be ranked in the top 10 of the Associated Press Poll when it faces Mississippi State. That’ll end a streak of 45 consecutive games in which UGA played as a top-10 team. What was Richt’s longest streak playing games as a top-10 team? Just 16 games.
In Richt’s 15 years at Georgia, his teams played 90 games as a top-10 team. That’s 46% of the games he coached in Athens. So far, Smart’s teams were ranked in the top 10 in 74% of the games they played.
Remember that aforementioned 2008 season? About 6 weeks after the Blackout Game, UGA began a streak of 44 consecutive games played as a non-top 10 team.
Can you imagine any sort of universe in which Smart repeats that? For some perspective, Smart’s streak of 45 consecutive games as a top-10 team dated to after the Mississippi State win in 2017 — go figure that Dan Mullen was the coach who bookended that run — to this Saturday. That’s more than 3 years. Smart’s floor is much too high to think about that top-10 drought lasting 1 full year, much less 3.
Yes, being a top-10 team matters. It means being in the national title hunt. It means getting primetime TV slots. It means having an engaged fan base. It means not playing games in half-empty stadiums when recruits turn on the TV.
Oh, my bad. It’s 2020. Crowds don’t matter this year.
What still matters? Being nationally relevant. It matters having national title chances in December, which UGA had each of the past 3 years. I’d argue that the Dawgs only had that twice (2002 and 2012) during the entire Richt era, which was a decade longer than Smart’s active tenure.
And for the “that just means UGA was overrated during Smart’s top-10 streak” crowd, I hate to break it to you, but that’s just not true. Since the start of 2017, Smart went 14-8 vs. ranked foes and 34-1 against unranked foes (history tells us that a winning record vs. ranked teams means you’re doing something right). During that stretch, Smart went 19-2 against the division.
That includes the most recent loss to Florida. It ended Smart’s 3-year winning streak against the Gators, which matched the longest of the Richt era, though his wins all came by 1 score and they were in the first 3 years of the post-Urban Meyer era in Gainesville (Richt went 1-4 vs. Meyer).
Why is all of this worth bringing up? There are a lot of people who are going to throw dirt on Georgia’s 2020 grave and declare that in Year 5, Smart is heading in the wrong direction. Those people will say that he messed up the quarterback situation, and he didn’t even win a division title with one of the best defenses in program history. They’ll get hung up on those things and tell themselves that the floor is about to drop significantly post-Year 5, just as it did for Richt when he went 4-4 in SEC play in 2006.
My advice to those people would be simple — look a little deeper. Look at the fact that the only other team in all of college football that held a top-10 ranking for the duration of Georgia’s 45-game stretch was Clemson. Even Alabama played a game outside the top 10 after it fell in the Iron Bowl last year, and same with Ohio State when it suffered that inexplicable blowout loss at Iowa in 2017.
They don’t hand out national titles for that, but that sure as heck isn’t a sign that history is about to repeat itself.
If you’re a UGA fan wondering what it’ll take to finally get over that hump, take solace in knowing that Smart tweaked the offense to finally have a system that doesn’t limit UGA’s ceiling, but it just needs a quarterback who can execute said system. Take solace in knowing that the Dawgs have been a much more consistent contender than they were under Richt, and unlike the previous regime, a recruiting class ranked outside the top 2 nationally is deemed a failure.
Saturday will feel weird playing a regular-season game without SEC/Playoff aspirations for the first time in over 4 years. There’s no doubt about that. But appreciate and understand why that’s so weird for the Smart era.
Soon, a new top-10 streak will begin. And maybe, just maybe, it’ll be the one that ends the title drought in Athens.
So you’re basically trying to convince people that rankings matter more than wins, or big wins, or playoff wins. Good luck with that.
I read the article and that is not what he was saying at all. Did you read the article? And Smart has wins, big wins, and a playoff win.
To me the point of the article was you can’t win a national championship without being nationally relevant and Smart has UGA nationally relevant almost every week whereas Richt did not. Hopefully Smart takes UGA to the next level, which is a national championship. But you can’t get to that last step without being in the top-10 and having big wins and playoff wins first.
I’m not saying Kirby or GA will never win a NC, I’m just saying this isn’t a very convincing argument that Kirby or GA are or have been better than their record. I mean is there really a difference in being ranked 7th or 13th when you end up playing in the same bowl game either way? Not really, not imo.
booches, i think tfk is on-point with his response to your comment. i do think a constant avg ranking of #7 vs #13 is a huge difference….granted we’re not still having this conversation 5 years from now. it’s a matter of being more relevant and having less challenges in having to convince top recruits that you (uga in this case) can get them a championship…with their help of course.
think of it like this, do you think meyer/day at osu would have a harder challenge in convincing a recruit to win a national or conf champioship at osu than franklin at psu? yes, i know that osu won a champ in ’14, but i’d think the 7th vs 13th ranking comparison you referenced would be appropriate here.
@PtheRicker: I don’t know. Rankings aren’t even really a stat, or not a real objective one like wins/losses. I guess you could argue that Kirby is a little closer than Richt, but again, it’s only marginal unless you actually throw out objective stats and say rankings matter more, or recruiting rankings matter more, results be dammed. Which like I said in my original comment, heavily weighing subjective rankings instead of objective results isn’t a very convincing argument.
Smart was promoted as the “next coming of Jesus” and he did well as a new coach. That this Covid season is being given all the seriousness as if it were normal isn’t helping anyone. It doesn’t help Smart because this season is taking some of the shine off the program. That does affect recruiting and in the top 10, where you need every edge in player ability you can get. Does Georgia trend down? I don’t know. I do know if he doesn’t start winning consistently at the bigger stage, he’ll get hammered over it in recruiting. So we agree he’s given them national relevance, the question is can he keep it going?
“Smart was promoted as the “next coming of Jesus””
Incorrect, at least no more than any new coach is celebrated by a fan base.
As far as the rest of your post, let’s check back after signing day. They are currently 5th and the only team in the top 10 with fewer than 20 commits. I think their national relevance will continue for at least another year.
I listened to an interview from a SC sports figure about muschamps firing and he said something I mentioned earlier and agree with but added more context. Basically Kirby, muschamp and Pruitt have been trying to build teams like saban did. getting big strong fast players at every positions. The difference is saban is putting kids who played safety at safety, LB at LB, CB at CB…. While muschamp and pruitt (not kirby) are not able to get high quality kids experienced at the position so they find a guy whose big, strong, fast… but has been playing QB or something because he was the best athlete on his high school team. Muschamp and Pruitt are trying to turn those QB’s… into Safeties, CB’s, WR… I contend they also are not trying hard enough top adapt the offenses to the current game and thus they are losing. Kirby has the luxury of doing what saban does in recruiting but a few mistakes have cost him. If he ever puts together the bama plan with the right QB and offensive plan they will likely be playing for another NC. The recruits are coming and this will likely happen sooner than later.
I don’t know enough about those teams’ recruiting to validate but certainly an interesting point that could explain a lot.
I think the Monken hire was a huge step for Kirby in showing that he was willing to modernize (in his own way) the offense. Adaptability is important in this game and I hope Kirby will show willingness to continue to adapt.
As much as other people have tried to pin UGA fans’ frustrations with the offense as being an indictment against Monken, I haven’t heard a reasonable UGA fan (maybe an oxymoron) complain about Monken – this is the first OC who has gotten the level of respect he’s gotten from the fan base ironically. He’s shown variation in play calling and gotten players in space, just no QB to execute.
Agrred! I’ll say this, I don’t know how much input Todd has when it comes to Kirby deciding who his starter is, I hope to this point very little and Kirby did what he did with Stetson and Dwan out of loyalty, but purely based on Monk’s play calling diversity I hope he has earned Kirby’s trust in this decision moving forward…and WHOEVER it is responsible for TE coaching, for crimmeny sake put some dmmmmm stick’m on their hands!
I think this provides some good overall context to the differences. Although I’m not necessarily in total agreement with the methodology of the argument at times, I think it does highlight a couple of things:
Mark Richt was a year in year out top 15 coach, Kirby Smart appears to be a year in year out top 10 coach. He’s won big games, he’s lost big games.
Richt’s early success seemed to be intertwined with Brian VanGorder being there. When he left, the defense was never the same. It’s interesting that Kirby’s teams have been successful despite being inept on the other side of the ball from Kirby’s specialty (offense was supposedly richt’s).
Not to nitpick, but I think it goes beyond your reference of Richt as a top 15 coach and smart as a top 10 coach. that top 15 ranking garnered national respect, but the top 10 ranking, of which i think is a low-ball characterization of cks’ teams, as I believe they’ve probably more averaged around 5-6 since 2017 has garnered first mention and more mention in daily, weekly sportscasts, talk shows, etc. top 15 teams can get lost in the shuffle, but constant mention (for good reasons such as top ranking) provides another level of PR that richt’s teams just never got. it’s easier to sell a recruit on what you can offer them when anytime they turn on the tv or radio they’re likely hearing about your school when not hearing from you directly, then you having to really re-introduce yourself and convince them of what you can offer each time you call on them.
also, uga certainly had a great defense under bvg’s watch, but i’d argue that they also had a really good defense under pruitt at the end or richt’s watch as well, especially the 2015 season when pruitt had a year under belt. i’d state that any hiccup that year was due to the ineptness of schottenheimer and richt on offense than anything the defense was short on. unfortunately….or fortunately a combination of richt losing interest and pruitt’s combative ways crashed the richt era.
Totally agree on the low ball, but I think it’s fair. When taking about average UGA under smart’s watch has looked like the perennial 5th team for sure, but unfortunately if we’re talking year in year out I can’t neglect the loss to Texas where the team ended at 8 so wanted to try to take into consideration all years so landed with calling it top 10.
I mean I get what you’re trying to say, but really that’s 1 year being called out from over 10 years of defenses. Schottenheimer was bad but Pruitt caused division on that team and never belonged on a Richt staff. His character never lined up with Richt’s and that was not good news for young men they were leading. So definitely agree that was a bad combo but ultimately helped lead to probably the best situation for Richt and the program.
I think what he’s saying is that every time there’s news that the NCAA recruiting dead period has been extended all coaches outside of Tuscaloosa and Athens say “All right!”
Recruiting matters, and rankings matter when recruiting, at least for those special athletes not afraid to compete with the best.
I’ll give props to Justin Fields, while I was not happy HOW he left UGa, to his credit he didn’t run to a weak program for the sake of playing time, he went to another very competitive (and to Connor’s point) highly ranked program and earned his spot on the field against superior competition. Fields could have chosen Mizzou (:
Kirby is also willing to do whatever it takes on the recruiting trail, ya know what I mean ;)
No. What do you mean?
I’ve always wondered if Dan’s pitch includes “…and you get to kiss my wife!”
Blah blah blah. Until he wins a Natty, nothing changed.
He’s a h€ll of a lot closer than JP is with Tennessee.
I am not sure I agree, at least not in full.
Yes, a national championship is the goal for a program like UGA. And only a handful of teams in the country can have that as a realistic goal but not achieving that goal does not equal failure. I am not sure if you are familiar with places like Kickstarter but they have stretch goals, basically if we hit goal A then we reach for goal B, if/then C, etc. A kickstarter can still be successful even if they don’t hit that final stretch goal. I view a CFB team similarly.
The final stretch goal is a national title. But a program is not a failure just because they won’t win the national title. Winning the division, the conference, major bowls, making the playoffs, winning a playoff game, etc are all notable achievements. I don’t view the 2017 UGA and Tennessee teams as equals just because neither won a national title that year, it is not all or nothing.
And, 1998 was also a long time ago. So be careful about using that as the only insult/measuring stick. It might come back around to you.
Well put, a ton of fans (uga fans included) don’t get this point. Unfortunately donors also seem to not understand this at programs and we know they call a lot of the shots.
TFK, great points. I totally agree.
The recruiting alone is reason why there is absolutely no comparison between Kirby and Richt. While I’m not exactly happy with Kirby’s continued arrogance which isn’t exactly earned yet, Kirby is once again closing in on a top-3 recruiting class, and even with the loss to Sideshow Dan the Clown this season, which can best be explained that even a blind squirrel finds a nut every so often, the most talented team in CFB usually wins the games 9 times out of 10.
Richt never once had even a top-5 recruiting class, not in 15 years. His highest ranked class was No. 6. He simply didn’t put the effort into recruiting needed to win a national title. Kirby is.
Another thing people forget with Kirby, is that this is his FIRST HEAD COACHING JOB.
Nick Saban and Urban Meyer weren’t SABAN or MEYER at Toledo and Bowling Green. They got to coach at small schools no one cared about and were able to make all their mistakes there. Kirby’s making his mistakes in front of national audiences in the best conference in CFB, and honestly, for a first time head coach, he’s doing very well.
The best comparison for Kirby Smart is Dabo Swinney. He’s a guy who took over a program that couldn’t get over an 8-win a year plateau and it took him 8 years to win his first national title.
name calling aside, there’s some good points here.
The recuriting aspect alone should be the biggest red flag! Do you think Nick Saban, Dabo, Meyer would not have a title with those classes?
As first time head coaches?
5 years and 2 or 3 recruiting national championships, lame excuse bro he’s far from a first year coach
I couldn’t agree more. They recruited one best QB’s in college football and sat him on the bench. So Fields left. Dabo and Saban were faced with the same situation and made the QB switch mid season while still being undefeated. BIG mistake by Smart and in addition that stupid fake punt against Bama in the playoffs
Dabo Swinney realizes that he is not the brightest guy in the room and delegates responsibility like a great CEO of a Fortune 500 Co. Plus he pays his coordinators immense salaries & bonuses(so they & their wives will all have big smiles). Not sure if Kirby has embraced that CEO role at this time. Dabo has his program running like a well-oiled machine & Kirby is trying to get to the same place. Time will tell.
Look at Dabo’s first four years and get back to me.
Corch…Dabo’s first few years he tried to micro-manage every aspect of the program…even having the audacity to “approve” every offensive play that was called. He was not successful, as we know. Who changed the program in that aspect was Chad Morris. When he was hired his deal included Dabo staying totally out of the offensive & plays that were called & it worked nicely. Dabo learned from that and when Venables was hired(with total defensive authority) from Oklahoma that defense started to improve and the rest is history. Frankly I detest anything Clemson, but Dabo learned and changed his coaching philosophy. I recall seeing West Virginia hang 70 points on Dabo’s team in the Orange Bowl. But now nobody is gonna hang 70 on them.
And what did Kirby do this year?
I think it’s also fair to point out that when Dabo took over at Clemson, their program was far from elite. I think Kirby is a fantastic coach, and he will win a national championship at Georgia eventually, but he walked into a much better situation than Dabo did. If Georgia finds themselves a clutch quarterback or two they’ll be a contender every year.
Agreed, good points. Clemson has helped to embrace that, I don’t think it’s just a Dabo thing – although I’m sure he did some convincing. The UGAAA has historically been pretty cheap (for the amount of revenue it brings in) and looked for value as opposed to quality.
Kirby hiring Monken was a step in releasing his grasp of trying to control everything but if nothing else changes long term I think he’ll struggle to be elite. Trust in assistants and giving up control goes a long way imo.
@Corch
For an entire generation, your team was the blind squirrel, so remember those nuts before you knock them.
For 100 years your entire football program was the blind squirrel.
So if we were to take the entirity of history, not just the history Floriduh fans prefer, then Floriduh are the johnny-come-lately blind squirrels.
So remember that. If you can get beyond your blindness of any and everything that happened before 1990.
Corch, Please go look at both programs from inception! Not a lot of great or even good football by either until the almost the 90s. 1980 not included! It’s easy to nit pick time frames but if you pull both sides up next to each other. There isn’t much for either of our fanbases to brag about as we keep going back
Sorry, 87. My fault for even attempting to communicate with that idiot.
Corch the biggest difference between Saban, Meyer, and Smart is, Saban and Meyer’s teams progressively got better as they grew from first time head coach’s to their first titles. Unlike those 2, Smart took over a power 5 10-win program set up for immediate success. He seems to be going in the opposite direction though. You’re right, a blind squirrel does find a nut every so often and Smart found his in year 2. He seems to have lost his sense of smell. Richt not recruiting as well all the while facing a much tougher eastern division and putting up similar numbers to the greatest recruiter of all time facing a much weaker division to start his career, should be alarming to you.
Richt faced a tougher eastern division? What? Sure he squared off against peak Meyer, but after that the East was as down as it’s ever been and he failed to consistently win the division. Plus for most of Richt’s 15 years, Tennessee was not good at all.
Smart has already gone against top Saban teams and 2019 LSU as well as facing Mullen-lead Florida, which have been better than any non-Meyer Florida teams Richt played against.
Only to those actively looking and hoping for Smart and UGA to fail does it appear that Smart is “going in the opposite direction.” The overreaction to this season is unbelievable.
First of all Smart’s teams have progressively gotten worse. He went from winning the SEC in year 2, to barely losing in the sec in year 3, to getting demolished in in year 4, to not making it at all in year 5. There’s no arguing he’s progressively gotten worse even though his recruiting classes have gotten better. I’m not sure how you can argue the SEC East wasn’t tougher when Richt took over either. Spurrier and Fulmer were ending their tenures in Richt’s first couple of seasons, both winning 10 + games and both only a few seasons removed from national titles. Florida should’ve been playing for one in 2001 if not getting knocked off by Tenn in a rescheduled game. The talent gap between the programs wasn’t even remotely as massive as it was when Smart took over facing the likes of McElwain and Butch Jones trying to drag their programs out of an almost decade long drought. Yeah the East is tougher now that Mullen has things rolling, but not in Smart’s first couple of years. There’s a huge difference in facing programs that haven’t recruited well for years to facing programs that weren’t far removed from winning titles.
You’re focusing too much on 2001. By 2003 and 2004 Florida and Tennessee were a shadow of their 90’s selves. Richt presided over historically down years in the East. 2017 was also a bad year for the East and CKS took advantage. However, since then the East has gotten better. Losing two NFL starting RBs, and then Fromm, has contributed to the step back from 2017. 2018’s team was nearly as good as 2017. There were legitimate struggles in 2019, but the OC and WR room are mostly to blame. This year was only ever going to be a step back. Joe, you are painting with strokes too broad in an attempt to cast an alarmist narrative of CKS regressing. And in so doing are missing all sorts of context.
Dumbass
Honestly Saban and Swiney have really tainted the avg fan’s mindset. Its extremely hard to win a Natty, alot of things have to fall in place! Ton of really good coaches out there they may never win a title! Kirby can recruit so I do think he will fall into a title at somepoint assuming he is given the time!
this ^
EXACTLY. This can literally be said for Dan Mullen as well. Mullen is a great coach (you’re a moron if you don’t believe that) and things are looking up in Gainesville. But it is very possible that he won’t win a national title because of how hard it truly is to do it, despite what Bama and Clemson have done
Kirby can win recruiting championships lol Richt couldn’t.
At least Georgia fans get rings for those these days.
Article didn’t have enough 1980’s jokes. Couldn’t give it a thumbs up.
So is there a group of Georgia fans clamoring for change because Kirby has not made the “jump”? If so, I would caution on change just to improve from the current top 2-4 in the SEC.
Unfortunately, there is a segment of UGA fans that has completely overreacted to the events of this season and want CKS fired.
They might live closer to the GA/TN border. Might be a genetic thing.
Smart will win a National Title. I always Richt was okay with being good, whereas Smart is driven to be great. I will enjoy making jokes about Smart for the next year since the Mighty Gators won this time, but in truth he is a very good coach who got burned by two of the weirdest comebacks in college football history.
UGA is in the national title conversation every year, and they will be as long as Smart is coaching. It’s just a matter of time before they win it all. But, in the meantime, it’s time to be mean! I’m sure Smart can take it, and if anything he will only be more driven to prove the doubters wrong.
He really should do something about that dorky haircut, though.
Florida earned the right to talk trash. Also, I appreciate the classy comment.
Second & 26 anyone ?
Does it matter that Georgia, Tennessee, and Florida were perennial powerhouses during most of Richt’s tenure at Georgia and the East has been the clearly weaker division since the end of Richt’s tenure and for ALL of Smart’s tenure. Florida has gone through a coaching carousel and only recently caught fire under Mullen. Tennessee hasn’t been relevant since the Fulmer era. Smart may profess to have a similar overall record during his start at Georgia, but he is also not facing the strength in the division that Richt initially faced. I think Richt was 3-3 vs. Alabama. So far, Smart is 0-3.
Tennessee was sliding downhill during the beginning of Richt’s tenure and was floundering during the last half of Richt’s tenure. Also during the last half of Richt’s time at UGA, Florida and Tennessee were at historic lows and Richt still failed to consistently win the East. Richt also never beat a good Saban team.
Kirby went the National Championship. Mark never sniffed it.
I would say he sniffed it in ‘02 and ‘07, however losing games he shouldn’t have cost him both of those years which ended up being the big gripe of his tenure. But ended as the #2 team in ‘07 so that’s pretty darn close.
I’d say he sniffed it in 2012 more so than any. They practically lost the national championship in the game against Bama. Everyone knew that the SEC champ game that year was the real natty.
Good point
It’s astounding to me that in this, the most bizarre, unpredictable, terrible season in college football history, that such discussions are even happening. It’s one thing if you’re Will Muschamp and have such a steady track record of failure that not even coronovirus can give you a pass. But Kirby Smart has earned a few dozen benefits of the doubt, enough that the Richt comparisons ought to wither and die.
I think Kirby inherited a better, stronger program than Richt was handed.
Kirby is doing a great job, and the real measure will be when he has 15 years under his belt. That will give a truer read on comparing the two
head coaches. Kirby may end up doing a better job but either one was a really good coach that most schools would be glad to have leading their program.
This is first Connor article I have read in some time. I agree with most everything. If we keep being at the door eventually we will kick it in, the biggest difference I see from Richt to Kirby is Kirbys relentless work ethic. Mark was helluva guy but Kirby just seems to never stop. Whether is be recruiting, competition,etc. it’s different culture wher close is not acceptable. Kirby has been close but his answer is always we gotta get better players, we gotta work harder, we gotta coach better. He has more aggressive nature than Richt. But I will always revere CMR as DGD.
CMR was genuinely the best man in college sports arguably ever especially at the level he was competing at. David Shaw might be the current day comparison (I don’t buy the Dabo “aw shucks” act). Possibly stopped him from being firmer than he could (should?) have been, but have to respect it.
100% agree
He’s done a pretty darn good job and don’t see it going down either. At least Smart didn’t do what Chump did to us…make us go broke and set us back 10 years.
Nothing like setting up a scenario and then writing an article dispelling it.
No one with an ounce of credibility has compared Coach Smart to Coach Richt.
Yes Kirby has a higher average team ranking than Richt but Kirby has a lot more money & support than Richt ever did. If Richt had the same resources as Kirby then gap between them would be much tighter.
Kirby is learning the ropes of head coaching one painful lesson at a time. Still manages to field a fearsome team and recruit extremely well. Ga fans who don’t support him are just dumb. As soon as Saban retires I expect Ga to be the class of the conference for a while.
Spot on analysis