There's only 1 thing that could prevent Georgia's defense from being historically good
If I’m predicting who will have the nation’s No. 1 defense, sorry, I’m going to be boring. Boring is picking the same team that finished No. 1 last year — Georgia.
In my defense, the Dawgs return 80% of their defensive production thanks to the key returns of guys like Richard LeCounte, Monty Rice and Azeez Ojulari. Picking against Georgia to have the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense again would be bold.
More interesting is to predict just how good this unit can be. Can it be 2011 Alabama? That group allowed 8.2 points per game and only allowed Georgia Southern to exceed 14 points (that’s not a typo).
Or maybe the more modern comp for 2020 Georgia is 2018 Clemson. That group actually allowed more points (13.1) than 2019 Georgia, but it surrendered a combined total of 29 points in the ACC Championship, Cotton Bowl and College Football Playoff National Championship. That’s certainly what Georgia aspires to be, and if it produces a national championship like both of those defenses did, that’ll be the new gold standard in Athens.
But maybe there’s another team that should factor into that discussion — 2017 Troy.
Wait, what? Why on earth would it make any sense whatsoever to compare Georgia’s 2020 defense to a Sun Belt team?
Well, in many ways, Georgia is trying to do something that Troy did with Neal Brown. That is, have an elite defense that pairs with an Air Raid offense. That’s the only thing that would give me pause from predicting Georgia to have a historically good defense.
Even just having a solid defense alongside an Air Raid offense has been a rarity in college football, though Troy’s 2017 squad showed it was possible. A win in Death Valley against LSU reminded us of that, though Brown admittedly deviated from his Air Raid principles that night in order to take down the Tigers. That Troy defense finished No. 11 in scoring in 2017.
Mike Leach, who is one of the founding fathers of the Air Raid, had 1 top-20 defense in his 18 years as a Power 5 head coach at Texas Tech and Washington State. Kevin Sumlin’s variation of the Air Raid offense never paired with a top-20 defense at Houston or Texas A&M, and the defenses paired with Sonny Dykes’ Air Raid rarely even sniffed a top-70 ranking during his stops at Louisiana Tech, Cal and SMU. Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid never paired with a defense that ranked better than No. 86 at Texas Tech, and Dana Holgorsen’s defenses never cracked the top 30 at West Virginia.
Does that mean that Georgia is destined for massive defensive regression in Year 1 of Todd Monken’s Air Raid? Not at all. The Dawgs are loaded with proven veteran experience, and obviously Kirby Smart didn’t go anywhere. He was the defensive coordinator on that historically dominant 2011 Alabama defense … and 3 consecutive top-15 defenses at Georgia.
But there’s a reason the Air Raid offense has become synonymous with lackluster defensive play. It doesn’t prioritize controlling the clock, and when it doesn’t work, it puts a lot of pressure on a defense over the course of a game.
In Monken’s time as a play-caller — he didn’t have play-calling duties with Tampa Bay until 2018 — here’s how his team’s defenses ranked:
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Georgia fans, I know what you’re thinking. Nobody is going to sit here and say that Oklahoma State or Southern Miss had even a fraction of the defensive talent that Georgia had. The Dawgs’ 2020 defense will inevitably be the best that Monken has been paired alongside. An Air Raid offense has never been paired with a front 7 with as much depth and upside as Georgia has thanks to guys like Malik Herring, Nolan Smith and Quay Walker (that “no-name defense” appears destined for some All-American seasons).
But it’s at least fair to wonder about why the potential hesitation to make this move was there. It wasn’t just that Georgia always seemed to have a bevy of capable backs and All-American offensive linemen. You need those things in the Air Raid, too. There had to be some concern as to how this would impact Georgia’s ability to play the sound, gap-disciplined defense that Smart built his foundation on.
Watching the offensive limitations, however, forced Smart’s move to modernize. Perhaps getting smacked in the face in the SEC Championship by LSU’s drastic year-to-year offensive overhaul was the final straw. After all, failing to hit 30 points in the final 7 games vs. SEC competition wasn’t acceptable for the talent that Georgia had. It also wasn’t the best look when to have an All-SEC running back, D’Andre Swift, correctly say in the middle of the season that the offense needed to take more shots downfield.
Georgia addressed that with Monken, and even if it hurts the defense some, the goal is trying to get to the level that LSU was at last year. Statistically speaking, the Tigers actually had their worst defense during Dave Aranda’s 4 years in Baton Rouge. But with the exception of some understandable post-Ole Miss nitpicking, those defensive shortcomings were largely overlooked because LSU’s offense tore up the NCAA record books en route to arguably the best season in college football history.
And as Alabama fans know, consecutive seasons with historic offenses coincided with 2 of the more frustrating defenses of the Nick Saban era. Some put that all on Pete Golding, while others pointed out that defense isn’t as easy when a high-powered passing offense has 2-play drives.
Granted, neither Alabama nor LSU ran the Air Raid. There will be differences in terms of the scheme, though none of them abandon the run and throw the ball 50 times per game like Leach’s version of the Air Raid. Monken described his version as “throwing to win.” His RPO-heavy philosophy clashed with Freddie Kitchens, who called the plays during the Browns’ letdown of a 2019 season. The question now is if Monken, who reportedly has total control over the offense, is going to clash with Smart’s defense.
Will Monken’s offense have a slow start to the season after a pandemic-limited offseason? And if it does, how will Smart and Georgia’s defense react to that?
If last year was any indication, a slow offensive start won’t deter the defensive veterans. Say what you want about Georgia’s 2019 limitations, but having guys like LeCounte step up after offensive duds and say “we know we’ve got each others’ backs, no matter what,” certainly kept that team together. It’ll likely take much more than a new offensive philosophy to prevent Georgia from being one of the nation’s best defenses.
But it’s at least fair to wonder if Georgia’s new offense — whether it’s good or bad — prevents the defense from reaching new heights.
I definitely think that having a more up-tempo, spread offense can have negative effects on the defense (see Bama the last couple years). Using Monken’s past jobs at other schools as a reference point to your argument isn’t the way to go about it. He coached at OK State and Southern Miss. Not exactly defensive powerhouses. Those defenses sucked before and after he was there running his “air-raid”.
Having an offense that goes entire quarters without scoring and nothing but 3-and-outs really has negative effects on the defense – i.e. UGA in 2019.
I’ll take UGA scoring quickly in 2020 over what we saw in 2019, any day.
Say that UGA scores quickly and in bunches in 2020 – that means the UGA defense is not playing to save a victory every time they are on the field, or, in vein (i.e. the SECCG vs LSU in 2019.) It would mean that UGA is putting a lot of pressure on opposing offenses to score and keep up with UGA. It would mean that UGA is putting away the opponents they should be putting away, i.e. SCar. It would mean a lot of substitutions and playing time for the backups.
I keep reading “Air Raid” as associated with UGA. Not being certain of that that actually means, I looked it up. The description said, “Rather than running the ball, an air raid system uses short passes to replace a balanced running attack. Quarterbacks in this offensive system often throw the ball over 75% of the time.” I think Kirby Smart is trying to improve upon an offense that ranked in the 70s in pass offense. Not replace the running game or throw the ball 3/4 of the time.
What do all the Georgia fans say? Georgia is RBU. Debatable, but that’s besides the point. Use your running backs to succeed. Sure dial up big passes every once in a while to Pickens but with a new SEC QB like Jamie Newman or JT Daniels, start off running the ball strong. Don’t air raid.
I say no one inside the Leghumper coaching staff has used the term air raid, I leave that to the talking heads. I say with a stud like RB White and a TE with the speed and size of Darnell I don’t see it. What I do see is an uptempo but physical offense that passes when 8 defenders are in the box and runs when 5 defenders or less are, unlike last year
The over-arching concern that I have with an Air-Raid offense is Time of Possession.
If UGA is quick to score and the defense spends 40 to 45 minutes on the field per game, then that’s a recipe for disaster. The defense will be worn out by week 4.
Go Dawgs!!
It is a give/take style of play. So, your offense scores quickly/more big explosive plays with more points in the board, BUT your defense didn’t get to stay off the field very much to rest. Kirby is just going to have to find the right balance to keep his defense rested enough but control LOS/running the ball/mixing in some explosive pass plays/misdirections/short passes in the flat to backs/crossing routes to TE’s. Monken will need to utilize every facet of the backs, TE’s and receivers with his “Air Raid”. I still think it will NOT be an “Air Raid” offense, but maybe a few more passes/RPO’s.
CLASS OF 94, for most teams I would agree with that, but UGA should be able to field a 2 deep defense and rotate liberally to keep players from wearing out. It’s kind of incumbent on your defense to stop the other team regardless of how many times your offense scores.
Rotating only based on what the officials will allow which in turn if the offense is not rotating then our defense will not be able to sub guys in.
How is that a recipe for disaster? As long as the offense is scoring, that is a good thing. The defense will adapt. The LSU defense was better at the end of the season than at the beginning. LSU was also way more balanced than an air raid team. I expect UGA to be closer to LSU in that regard. LSU ran an average of 38 pass plays a game and 34 running plays. UGA will probably run more than that.
Well, Dawg fans, looks like Connor’s going to keep labeling the new, as yet unseen Georgia offense an “Air Raid” whether it is or it isn’t. And I agree that it won’t be.
He also called Georgia’s 2019 defense the number 1 defense in the country, which it wasn’t. In fact it was number 3 behind Ohio State and Utah.
As for whether it can be “historically good,” I’d say Georgia’s opponents will have some say about that. As noted elsewhere, if Georgia has a weakness next season it will be in the center of the defensive line. What’s interesting is that two of the offensive lines Georgia will face this season will be very good: Tennessee’s and Kentucky’s.
If Florida beats Georgia, odds are that the Gator offensive line will have played much better than in 2019 with the extra year of experience. If Florida loses, then Georgia will get to face — in all probability — Alabama’s exceptional offensive line.
OH ST and Utah don’t play in the SEC either. I actually think Clemson has a better defense than either of those 2 teams. Clemson is in the ACC but they have the most talent on defense and the best DC in college football. They are as close to a top SEC defense compared to the other conference top teams such as OH ST and Utah.
While this may surprise you, I agree that Georgia was the actual best defense in 2019, as opposed to the statistical third best.
Overall, I think so. I believe we will be a little bit better overall this season. Bama’s got key defenders that were hurt last season so I see it pretty even maybe Bama with a slight edge.
22, Ohio St has as much talent as anyone. They’ve been recruiting at elite SEC level for years.The shear NFL DE talent alone, (Bosa’s & Young..etc) is ridiculous. They can also say that they’ve won NC’s since 1980…
Defensive coaching is overrated. They have the talent but not the coaching to go with it.
You are right.Last year the Clemson defense put up some very impressive numbers in spite of the loss of many starters to the NFL.They were very young & because of that youth Coach Venables ran a different scheme that was simpler.This year they have more experience & also several freshmen monster defensive players coming in ( Bresee & Murphy ) who could become All American first rounder legends.
clempson has the best Defensive Coordinator in College Football..Brent Venables…but not the Best Defense. Right now It Resides in Athens, Georgia.
We will have to face Bama’s OL anyway. What tha….
Ah yes. I forgot about Week 3.
Yes, and in Tuscaloosa. But I will say with home field advantage for Bama may not be much if in fact there will only be limited amount of fans in the stands. So, maybe a little bit of grace for us will help which we need anyway. It’s still tough to play and win in Tuscaloosa anyway you look at it.
Well, we all know we have nothing to worry about from Sideshow Dan the Clown, who as a head coach has never scored more than 20 points against a Kirby Smart defense in 10 straight losses. He did that once, by the way, with Dak as his QB.
Kirby has MuLLLen’s number. Yeah, yeah, I know, Cousin Eddie is an “offensive genius” who “does more with less” and Kirby is “Dumb” and “Fake Punt” and “Justin Fields” and whatever, so given all that, how much the sweeter that he absolutely owns Sideshow Dan.
10 straight losses. Soon to be 11.
Actually Corch, you keep saying that but you’re being sneaky by the qualifier “as head coach.” Florida scored 31 against Alabama in 2008 with Mullen as Florida’s OC and Smart as Bama’s DC. Smart’s record against Mullen in the Bama/MSU was heavily skewed by talent disparities.
One time. With much better players that Corch Irvin Meyers recruited.
I’m sorry Nashville Gator, but Sideshow Dan the Clown isn’t in Irvin Meyers zip code as a recruiter.
Tim Tivo and Percy Harvey ain’t walking through that door.
I suspect that if you concentrate really hard, you will be able to see that you just made my point about Mullen’s structural disadvantage at MSU.
As for Florida’s current and future talent, the Gators’ Blue Chip Ratio has increased from 33% in 2017 to 58% for 2020. Mullen’s doing just fine.
Nash, patience is a virtue. At least I’m told.
I believe he’s getting our #1 2019 designation from points allowed per game.
An Air Raid throws the ball on 65-75% of plays from scrimmage. For reference, LSU threw the ball on 53% of plays from scrimmage in 2019. I expect the new Georgia offense to be somewhere in the 50-53% range.
An Air Raid has four wide receivers and no tight end. I don’t see Georgia dispensing with its tight ends.
An Air Raid has wide offensive line splits. I can see Georgia widening its splits to a modern spread, but not to Washington State/Air Raid widths.
Nash, I agree with you here. I don’t see the air raid philosophy coming to Athens, more so than an more open offense. I can see them spreading out (maybe why Darnell Washington was a huge get?)
I can see them lining up in a compact formation with three receivers, and motioning the TE or TBs out to receiving spot. I don’t see them not running the ball about half of the time, and I don’t see them throwing it in place of running unless there is a strategic advantage to that on that series.
Sounds about right, part of the problem is kids like Connor here just love to say “AIR RAID”, it’s like they can’t help themselves.
Dude, for the last effing time… GEORGIA IS NOT RUNNING THE AIR RAID!
The offense Georgia will run this year will be more closely aligned with the offense Tampa Bay had in 2018 that finished 3rd in the NFL.
We will throw more and we will use Spread and Air Raid concepts to get WRs and TEs and RBs in space to catch the ball, scheming separation, something both Chaney and Coley refused to do or couldn’t do.
We will throw way more over the middle, making it harder for defenses to defend us, also something both Chaney and Coley refused to do.
We will run more 4-wide sets, yes, but 10 won’t be the base offensive personnel, which is what it must be to be an Air Raid offense. Our basic personnel will be 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WRs). There will be some 12 and some 10 and maybe even some Spurrier-like 00 thrown in there, but our base personnel will not be 10.
Kirby Smart will not run the ball only 25% of all snaps. Between 40-45%? That’s probably most likely.
Dude, seriously, you’re literally the only person out there claiming this will be an Air Raid offense which means:
1. You have no idea what an Air Raid offense actually is (pick up the phone and ask Mike Leach, who invented it, and he literally tell you, probably for hours)
or
2. You’re not listening to any of the Georgia beat writers, like Seth Emerson, who have some basic idea, and who have all said this will not be an Air Raid offense.
Hell must have just frozen over!! I actually agree with something Corch just posted. Now way on God’s green earth UGA limits the run to 25-30%. I can see being closer to balanced, but running is in the DNA of who UGA is.
Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn should have top 5 defenses this year. Injuries for all of those teams will be the question. Georgia especially with all the fresh-off-injury players they have.
Up tempo offenses have a negative effect in any sport. Auburn basketball in 2018-19 dominated with fast offense. Alabama through the years has had great up tempo offenses. Auburn nearly pulled a comeback vs Georgia in 2019. Why? Because of the up tempo offense.
The best defenses are the ones that can kill that tempo. Georgia was a little wobbly doing that last year. If they aren’t this year, they’ll allow under 20 points a game in most contests. Same goes for Auburn and Alabama..
“Georgia was a little wobbly doing that last year.”
UGA’s #1 in the Nation defense was a little wobbly, LSU aside, who scored often against UGA?
Are you referring to the UF game when UGA went into a soft/prevent defense in the 4th qtr?
For the 40th time, you didn’t go into a prevent in the 4th quarter.
You’re correct. It was a soft zone designed to keep everything in front of them, while a prevent is super soft zone designed to prevent a big play.
For the 40th time, you lost. You don’t get to nitpick what was or wasn’t happening.
Georgia had a #1 defense and couldn’t beat South Carolina with half the game being a freshman QB and the other half being a QB turned WR with bad accuracy.
Georgia nearly stumbled to Auburn’s rallying comeback.
Of course the #1 defense let LSU put up 37 while the #8 defense only let them put up 23 points…
Statistically, Georgia was amazing last year on D. But in reality, it was wobbly.. @TheDawgsOfWar
I sorta think nitpicking is one of the quintessential functions of a comment section. And as we’re often reminded, this is not a single team site and anybody can comment on anything.
And for the 40th time…
No, I’m not gonna say it.
LSU is also a candidate to have a top 5 defense in 2020.
Uptempo offense is great but then you have to consider coaches nowadays are telling players to break the continuity, rhythm and flow of the offense by taking a knee, lie down with a cramped leg, etc. I absolutely despise that, but I see more and more teams doing it.
If there is any rule change as far as timeouts, I would love to see if a team goes into halftime with their remaining timeouts, that they could carry over into the 2nd half to help take a timeout to slow the up tempo offenses. I know it will not happen, though.
Players can still flop. That’s the best method to slow offenses.
I take it the photo chosen is a hint, and that Mizzou is that one thing.
The photo is instructive — the Ga. player has a hand up in a “Mizzou is about to get the pizz slapped out of them” posture.
Ha! #4 for GA face-planted on that play, Powell hit Badie for a 23 yard gain, IIRC.
2019 Cleveland Browns under Monken 539 pass 393 run
2018 TB Bucs under Monken 625 pass 389 run 75 pass to TE
Not your prototypical air raid Connor but keep on touting it…hopefully all our opponents will believe it and not prep for our ground n pound
I guess these are hills we’ve chosen to die on.
Georgia is not going to run the Air Raid.
Connor is from the BIG, cut him some slack. He’ll figure this football thing out eventually.
You are right.Last year the Clemson defense put up some very impressive numbers in spite of the loss of many starters to the NFL.They were very young & because of that youth Coach Venables ran a different scheme that was simpler.This year they have more experience & also several freshmen monster defensive players coming in ( Bresee & Murphy ) who could become All American first rounder legends.
Do you really need to scheme against that schedule? Probably just overpower folks.
Although a good point that an all out “Air Raid Offense” would be the one thing to derail an otherwise stellar defense, I just don’t see Kirby and more importantly Monken ignoring the talent he has in the backfield and in the slot for some good ole power running and mis-direction. There is talent on this offense, albeit young and in the QB room inexperience at UGA. I’d give Monken credit to say he’s smart enough to figure out offensive distribution based on the talent he has. Kirby just needs to take the reins off the offense and hand them over 100%. If that happens, then Dan Lanning (and Kirby) can create/mold one of the best defenses ever between the hedges. It will take time to compare/contrast to 2011 Bama or any of the other great ones. My “One Thing That Could Prevent UGA’s Defense From Being Historically Good” is all between the ears. If they start believing these headlines that they are the best and lose the hunger/fire, they will falter!
Monken targeted OJ Howard 48 times in 10 games at TB, air raid my humperbumper, he’ll use the tools in the shed
Does any Dawg Fan Really Believe that Kirby is going to allow Monken to run “The Total Air Raid” ? Let’s keep it real here. Kirby Smart comes from the Nick Saban Tree of Coaches and the term “Risk Management” has a lot to do with both of their Philosophies in Coaching. As I have heard…”When You throw a pass…Three(3) things can Happen &Two(2) of em are Bad”. Yes Offenses have changed but an all-out “Total Air Raid” in Athens ? I Don’t Think So.
Anybody thinking GA will pass more than run under Kirby Smart will be disappointed. Kirby’s goals have always been to have a balanced offense.
The offense just needs to bring the passing game up to where the run game has been.
Manufacture a few fast strike scoring drives that will keep defenses honest. Otherwise go for a balanced attack that keeps the ball in the offenses hand, while keeping the defense off the field for too long.
I think the offense will start a little slow but will really take off down the stretch. I’m looking forward to a great season.
Tim…Great Point ! A Quick-Striking-Offense does Not give the Defense any Rest. By the time they sit down…Boom ! Touchdown ! That happened to our Defensive Unit in Tuscaloosa when Tua was Throwing those Quick-Strikes. Touchdowns are Great…but the “D” has to Rest to be an Effective Unit. As far as the Offense in Athens, when JT Daniels Is the Quarterback…The Offense Jells.