Why even in this booming passing era, Aaron Murray's SEC touchdown pass mark is nearly untouchable
On the surface, now is not the time to predict that college football passing records are safe.
Offenses run more plays, passing is prioritized more than ever and the increased attention on player safety favors the offense. We’re more likely to see a national championship end with each team in the 50s than single digits.
Shoot, we just saw Joe Burrow throw for a whopping 60 touchdown passes. Sixty! Do some quick math and hey, that’s basically halfway to Aaron Murray’s SEC record of 121 career passing touchdowns. Add in the fact that programs are finally allowing true freshmen to become starters and one would think now is the perfect time for an SEC signal-caller to take aim at the record books.
Surely that means Murray’s mark is in serious jeopardy, right?
Nope. I actually think Murray’s record is safe for a while.
A 4-year starting quarterback in college football is rare these days, especially in the SEC. Murray did that, as did Drew Lock, who set the SEC’s single-season touchdown pass record (which Burrow shattered in 2019). But even a prolific 4-year starter like Lock was 23 touchdown passes short of breaking Murray’s mark.
The only realistic way you break a mark like that is being a 4-year starter. Or if you’re a 3-year starter like Jake Fromm, you have to average 41 touchdown passes per year. Only 3 SEC quarterbacks ever had 41 touchdown passes in a year (Burrow, Lock and Tua Tagovailoa), and none of them did it twice.
Speaking of Tagovailoa, he would have actually been the rare case of someone who could have broken that record had he stayed for his senior season. Even more impressive, he wasn’t a starter as a true freshman (though he did rack up 11 touchdown passes because he appeared in 8 games). As prolific of a career as he had, he still would have needed 35 passing touchdowns in 2020 to reach that. Would a healthy Tagovailoa have reached that? Probably, but it’s still a mark that’s only been hit 12 times in SEC history.
And that’s the thing. Quarterbacks like Tagovailoa who put up those kind of numbers don’t stay in school. Even Lock was somewhat surprising when he announced his return for his senior year, and he wasn’t in striking distance of Murray.
Not even someone like Trevor Lawrence is set up to hit 121 (I know he’s in the ACC, but I’m using him as an example). Lawrence got the starting job early in his freshman season at Clemson, stayed healthy and played in 15 games in each of his first 2 seasons. As great as Lawrence is, how many touchdown passes does he have? He has 66, which is still 55 short of Murray’s mark. Assuming that 2020 is Lawrence’s last year in college football, I wouldn’t bet on him reaching 121, either.
You see, NFL teams didn’t hold Murray in the same regard as Lawrence or even Lock. Was Murray a great college quarterback? Absolutely. But as any Georgia fan could tell you, he was great despite some limitations to his game. He didn’t go through his progressions at NFL speed, his ability to escape pressure wasn’t next-level and he didn’t have the strongest arm.
Players with those limitations usually don’t put up numbers like Murray did. Jake Fromm had some limitations, though I’d argue he had fewer next-level limitations than Murray. Even if Fromm had stayed in Georgia — which many thought he should — he would have needed to match Lock’s historic 2017 season of 44 touchdowns to break Murray’s SEC record. And that’s for someone who played in 43 college games and never missed a start after he took over for Jacob Eason in the season opener of his true freshman season.
It’ll take the perfect set of circumstances to break Murray’s record.
If you had asked me 6 years ago what those circumstances would have been, I would have said that some undersized, system quarterback could possibly do it, or maybe someone with some obvious mechanical flaws. But now, the NFL is taking more concepts than ever from college offenses. Guys like Kyler Murray aren’t being passed on because of their size, and quarterbacks with accuracy issues like Lamar Jackson are still 1st-round picks. Why? Teams are finally willing to build an offense around them using college schemes.
I’m not saying that he would have starred in today’s NFL, but I can’t help but wonder how much differently we’d talk about Tim Tebow’s next-level potential in 2020 than we did in 2010. Oh, and in case you were wondering, Tebow started his last 3 years of college after his red-zone role as a true freshman … and still finished 34 career touchdown passes short of Murray.
What about someone like Baker Mayfield who actually finished his college career with 131 touchdown passes? Tell me this. If Mayfield, who essentially had 3.5 years as a starter including his freshman year at Texas Tech, had a sophomore season in the SEC with 36 touchdown passes and then a junior season with 40 touchdown passes, 11.1 yards per attempt and 71% accuracy, do you think that guy stays in school another year? Nope. Not in the SEC. Mayfield spent his senior year — and then some — trying to show the world that he wasn’t just taking advantage of Big 12 defenses.
Really smart of Baker Mayfield to go up against a Big 12 defense here at his pro day
— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) March 14, 2018
In this era, if you can have 2 seasons like that in the SEC, you’re gone. Lock was the closest exception to that rule, but when he made the decision to return to school, he had yet to beat a ranked team yet and his sophomore season (with only 23 touchdown passes and 55% accuracy) was for a 4-8 squad.
Lock couldn’t do it, though I do think if Murray’s record comes down, it’ll be at the hands of a senior. More specifically, a senior that we’re at least somewhat surprised to see return.
Could someone follow Murray’s path in the 2020s? I suppose it’s possible, but it still seems unlikely. It would take someone who has next-level weaknesses after 3 years of starting in the SEC, and it would also take someone who acknowledges those weaknesses. Fromm didn’t care about his small hands — he reminded everyone that they won 3 SEC East titles — or his arm strength issues. And again, Fromm still would have needed a single-season Georgia record to reach Murray’s career mark.
Am I saying that Murray’s record is untouchable? Of course not. All bets are off after what we saw Burrow do in 2019. Maybe the right situation will come along. It’s definitely not happening in 2020 (Kellen Mond has the most passing touchdowns of any active SEC quarterback with 52), and I’m not betting on Bo Nix to average 35 touchdown passes for another 3 seasons as a starter.
Murray’s statistical feat is going to age well, even if he wasn’t the guy who ended the 1980 jokes or if he didn’t become a successful NFL quarterback. He was indeed a great college quarterback. Maybe it’ll take another decade of him owning that record for that to become a unanimous opinion. I’m not sure.
What am I more sure of? It’s going to take the perfect set of circumstances for “122” to become a realistic goal for an SEC quarterback.
Its a nice record but it will be broken by someone sometime. In the 2020’s? maybe, probably.
It might stand, but I wouldn’t say it’s a guarantee by any means. Fields threw for 41 last year. Definitely possible someone like him could (keep in mind he sat out a lot of 2nd half’s) if they play for 3 seasons or someone who does stay 4 years in a pass happy offense. Hell, I could see some Miss State QB doing it if they start 4 years for Leach.
yeah good point. A leach offense may provide the opportunity faster than anything else.
I half jokingly made the Leach point myself but at the same time, this is SEC ball. The defenses here play a little different and not all of the offenses are gunning for a fast paced shootout. If Leach were running the offense at Bama, LSU, UGA, Florida, or Auburn, then maybe they could have the weapons to do that but at Miss St, he’s not gonna have the weapons on offense for that.
It won’t be next year, but the 4 star recruit we have coming in next year just might do it…he ran the Air Raid in high school.
Forgot about Leach, I was thinking if Kiffin holds on long enough he could get a qb in his pro style that could do it. Yeah, I see Leach definitely putting an offense on the field to do it.
Murray’s four year record could realistically be broken by a three-year starter. I believe it’ll happen sooner rather than later.
I think it is gonna stand for awhile!!! 121 is stout.. 30 for 4 seasons consistently!!!!! Health alone is an obstacle!!! Very good QB he was
I don’t agree with the statement but the logic is sound.
The only way this mark remains intact is because Tua skipped his Sr yr. Had he returned he would’ve easily exceeded the 35 TDs to break the record. A returning healthy Tua would be penciled in for at least 40 TDs.
But as I said,, the intangibles,, health for one!!! Early departure for top-tier Qb is another!!! 3 to 4 starter minimum!!! A lot has to go right for a career to toss that many!!!! It will stand for a long time
Danny Wuerffel threw for 114 and 5 in the bowl games before they counted them. So that 119. He did that in season when they played only 11 games also. He also split time his first two years with Terry Dean. It’s more doable than these stories indicate.
And that was with Spurrier’s pass happy offense. Murray did it at RBU.
Murray threw more passes than Wuerffel. Just about a whole seasons worth more.
Spurrier’s offenses ran the ball effectively and were very balanced. It’s just that they threw to set up the run. I know you remember it well.
Georgia has always been a run first offense. Their whole offensive platform and foundation are based on running the ball to open up SOME passing.
We are RBU.
No…you are a douche bag.
I remember going to church one Sunday back in 1991 or so and Coach Spurrier was sitting in the pew ahead of me. I heard him praying “Thank you Lord for making Ray Goff the head coach of them Bulldogs. Please keep him there as long as you can. He so deserves it”.
What I’m saying is a lot of Spurrier’s success was because UGA had an idiot of a head coach for several years. And then followed that up with Donnan who was not much better.
Spurrier won 24 straight SEC games…it was a lot more than Ray Goff couldn’t coach. He brought the whole league into 21st century. Even Pat Dye (who was the best coach in the SEC at the time Spurrier arrived without a doubt) called Spurrier’s offense gimicky. So SOS proceeded to drop 40 on them in a blowout at the Swamp. If not for Bobby Bowden and the Seminoles, Spurrier would be looked at much like Bear or Saban with his run through the 90’s.
I just saw your response. If……. I think Spurrier could have been a lot more successful as a player and a coach but he couldn’t let it get in the way of his tee time. He just didn’t have the burning desire to be the best, just the biggest ego.
Drew Lock enrolled at Missouri in spite of the coaching staffs below average ability to recruit O-linemen and receivers. it’s just a matter of time before somebody at Missouri breaks Murray part of the record. And Locks. And Missouri might not be the first, the current passing attack phase in the SEC is in it’s infancy.
Mike Leach is gonna read this and try to break the record in 1 season just cause he can.
He will also try to break it down in 13 sections with 24 subsets of A-B-C, etc. then describe each in his own way and vernacular.
Breaking the record will require finding another QB like Murray – a great college QB who is a day one starter but not a great NFL prospect. It will take 4 seasons to break the record.
Burrows, Fields (most likely), Stafford, Tua, Eason, Lawrence (most likely) and even Fromm left early if possible for the NFL.
Murray also lost 2-3 games his senior season when he tore his ACL vs UK. Otherwise add another 3,4,5,6 TDs to his total.
Yeah and for UGA it also came at a time where UGA hadn’t recruited the QB spot very well so you saw an opportunity for Murray to play as a freshman, an established, very experienced WR corps, a solid running game, and a coach who was willing to take deep shots down field. It was really a perfect storm.
You mean to tell me Joe Cox wasn’t a great QB! And who forget JTIII, most under-rated UGA QB ever.
/sarc-off
Rex Grossman threw a higher % of TD passes vs. total passes his first two years before Spurrier left. He would be the record holder with two more years with Spurrier. His sophomore year was insane.