5 biggest concerns I have about Kentucky in 2019
Like a dog chasing a bus, in 2018, Kentucky finally got what it wanted — a successful season with a 10-3 mark, a Citrus Bowl win, and a No. 11 ranking in the final polls. But like that dog, UK has to decide what to do next. And it might suddenly have its hands full. There’s definitely some reason for concern for the Wildcats in 2019 — and here are 5 of the biggest.
1. The secondary
Kentucky’s secondary was thin before losing safety Davonte Robinson to a quad injury. Robinson is gone for the year, and his loss robs Kentucky of the most experience they had at a position which now will see a ton of unknown players. UK finished the spring with JUCO Brandin Echols and redshirt sophomore Cedrick Dort (6 career tackles) projected to start at the cornerback slots. The likely starting safeties, Jordan Griffin and Tyrell Ajian, combined for just 4 starts and 23 tackles last season. UK went from 252 passing yards per game allowed in 2017 to just 186 last season. It’ll be next to impossible to keep that level of productivity without guys like Mike Edwards, Darius West, Lonnie Johnson, Derrick Baity and Chris Westry.
2. Life without Benny
Kentucky’s offense was no great shakes in 2018 — averaging 26.6 points and 361 yards per game. But it was efficient and keyed on the ability of power back Benny Snell to turn 3rd downs into 1st downs. But Snell is in the NFL, and while AJ Rose has shown flashes of excellence, he’s more of a speed back than a power back. Even if Rose can equal the 1,449 rushing yards that Snell posted in 2018, he’d be hard-pressed to be as good on 3rd-and-short or goal-line spots as Snell was. Kentucky might well gain more yardage in 2019 … but can the Wildcats still put enough points on the scoreboard without Snell?
3. Playing down to the opponent
Even during Mark Stoops’ run of 3 consecutive bowl games, Kentucky has often struggled to put away weaker opponents. In 2017, Kentucky beat FCS Eastern Kentucky by 11 points (despite being favored by 34.5), and Eastern Michigan by just 4 (as a 14.5-point favorite). Even the 2018 campaign included ho-hum wins over Central Michigan (35-20, as UK trailed early) and Middle Tennessee (34-23, as MTSU outgained UK 463-324). Kentucky can’t afford a stumble against Toledo or Eastern Michigan this season — which means the ‘Cats need to avoid playing down to lesser talent.
4. Problems with the pass rush
As Kentucky has emerged from the SEC cellar, the pass rush has been a key element. After posting between 17 and 27 sacks in Stoops’ first 4 seasons, the Wildcats totaled 30 sacks in 2017 and 38 sacks last season. Of course, Josh Allen had 24 of those 68 sacks (including 17 last year), and he’ll be in the NFL this fall. Kentucky returns some skilled pass rushers, led by linebacker Jamar Watson. But particularly given the inexperienced secondary opposing QBs will face, it’s probably unrealistic to expect anything near 38 sacks in 2019. Of course, without a consistent pass rush, UK’s young DBs will be even more vulnerable, so this chicken-and-egg debate could end up ugly either way it goes.
5. Who (besides Bowden) will catch passes?
Kentucky’s passing game was stagnant throughout most of the 2018 season. UK won SEC games despite passing for 18 and 71 yards, respectively. And sure, QB Terry Wilson should be healthy this fall … and without RB Benny Snell, Wilson will get more chances to go to the air. But the offense that put up just 161 yards passing per game last year (UK’s fewest since 2011) lost many of its better receivers. Gone is tight end C.J. Conrad (30 catches, 318 yards). Also gone are slot receiver David Bouvier and outside receiver Dorian Baker, as well as jack-of-all-trades Tavin Richardson. Kentucky’s 2nd-leading returning pass-catcher, junior Josh Ali, caught 10 passes for 115 yards. Yes, cat-quick Lynn Bowden (67 catches, 745 yards in 2018) should be a star … but who else will emerge?
I think the receivers have to be the biggest concern. It was easy to criticize Gran for not throwing the ball down the field much last year, but it’s hard to do that when guys can’t get open. We are hearing some good things about the young guys out of camp, but they need some of them to step up.
Secondary has to be the other big concern, but Stoops has probably earned the benefit of the doubt in crafting good secondaries, so I put that below receivers. There’s no experience in the defensive back room, but there’s talent so it should be able to hold its own.
Beyond that, this team looks solid. Benny was amazing in short yardage situations, but I don’t think his replacements will be running into as many stacked boxes as the playbook should be opened up. Assuming Terry progresses and stays healthy (although I really like Smith if needed) he’ll take some of that burden as well. Losing Big George and Bunchy isn’t ideal, but I think people forgot how good Landon Young was at such a young age. I think he’ll wind a solid NFL draft pick and the line should be better. Conrad was a Jake Bentley type of player– he was competant early but never really got any better. Like Marrow said yesterday, Rigg is probably better. Special teams should be a strength if Poore is better than his name.
On the defensive front seven they’ll certainly miss Josh Allen but most of the rest of the pieces are there. If the secondary is passable and a couple of receivers, Kentucky should be able to real run at 9 wins again.
This team will be LUCKY to go 6-6 & make a bowl game. The “run” is over, back to hoops & crystal meth for UK fans
I do believe the last five years have been hard for you Rooster Booster lol.
Cry some more.
Ha! Take a peak at your own schedule. Looks like you all will be LUCKY to go 6-6. Don’t forget who you have on the sidelines, this isn’t 2011 anymore.
Let’s make it 6 in a row shall we?
SC is 0 fo their last 19 vs UGA, KY, A&M and Clemson. You might want chill on that kind of trashtalk.
Dang that was just harsh lol
Nice stat, did u tally that up on your notepad whilst wikipedia’ing & listening to Jason Mraz Pandora?
Dude…we have whipped that cocky ass so often that you should just call us DADDY and go to bed.
Ok, Daddy. You guys should be decent without Benny Snell… lol
This is, by far, my favorite take from the uneducated rival fanbase and lazy writers this offseason. We’re more dynamic this year on offense this year BECAUSE
we don’t have Benny Snell. Which also times up perfectly with a rebuilding defense that won’t enable us to slow games down to a crawl like last year’s team afforded us.
Hey PPig… Straight up question: are you willing to come back out here and spout off your expert opinion after the end of the season?
Yes, I am. Just will have to find some time, imagine I’ll be busy traveling to bowl games, sec championships etc. prob will be a while. talk to you then!
Nope. I got that number by watching SC lose games.