Better or worse? Previewing Kentucky's offense in 2019
Editor’s note: This is the third in a series previewing every SEC team’s offense, starting with the East Division. Coming Thursday: Missouri.
After a 10-win season that ended in a Citrus Bowl victory and a No. 11 national ranking, the general assumption is that there’s only one way for the Kentucky Wildcats to trend in 2019. After all, when you finish the team’s best season since 1977 and send off the school’s largest NFL Draft contingent in memory, it’s not hard to understand why most preseason predictors expect diminishing returns for UK in 2019. But here’s the thing: The Kentucky offense reasonably could — make that should — improve in 2019.
The Wildcats’ 26.6 points per game in 2018 ranked just 12th in the league in scoring, and their 360.8 yards per game again was only two spots from the bottom of the league rankings. Given the personnel who return, there’s absolutely no reason Kentucky can’t improve both marks in 2019 — and indeed, their season might depend on it.
Passing offense: Better
Frankly, while UK’s program as a whole might seem to have nowhere to go but down, there’s nowhere for the passing attack to go but up. Kentucky was dead last in the SEC with 161.5 passing yards per game. While their pass efficiency was a bit better (12th), UK attempted the fewest passes in the SEC (296) and had the fewest passing touchdowns (14).
Junior QB Terry Wilson wasn’t all bad. He completed over 67% of his passes, but was rarely asked to do anything beyond keep the defense halfway honest in the onslaught of Kentucky’s ground attack. Wilson passed for just 1,889 yards, with 11 touchdowns against 8 interceptions. Given Kentucky’s stout defense and reliance on a potent ground attack, an offensive aversion to risk was part of UK’s game plan … but things could change this fall.
Kentucky had only two players who caught more than 17 passes last year, and while tight end C.J. Conrad graduated (30 catches, 318 yards, 3 TDs), junior receiver Lynn Bowden does give UK a bona fide big-play threat in the passing game.
Bowden’s 67 grabs for 745 yards and 5 scores comfortably led UK in each category. Young receivers like Josh Ali (10 catches, 115 yards, 1 TD) and Isaiah Epps (8 catches, 76 yards) have flashed big-play potential, and will be relied upon much more heavily in the post-Josh Allen and Benny Snell era. Wilson was sharper in the spring, and UK will be more willing to call his number on intermediate and deep throws than they were last year. Backup Gunnar Hoak has transferred to Ohio State, but will be replaced by Troy QB Sawyer Smith, who similarly would be a solid pass-first second option at QB.
Running offense: (Slightly) Worse
Kentucky emphasized power football in 2018, and having the school’s all-time leading rusher in bowling-ball back Benny Snell allowed that choice. Snell finished 2018 with 1,449 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, and his 289 carries led the SEC. Kentucky finished sixth in the SEC in rushing with 199.4 yards per game on the ground, including 4.8 yards per carry and 27 touchdowns. In 2017, Kentucky averaged 161.7 yards per game on the ground, and that seems like a more likely level of production for 2019.
Snell is gone, as is bullish lead blocker tight end C.J. Conrad. Kentucky’s line also lost George Asafo-Adjei and center Bunchy Stallings, but the Wildcats return a talented corps of veteran linemen, including junior tackle Landon Young, who missed the entire 2018 season due to injury.
On the ground, Kentucky will likely feature junior back Asim Rose, who had 442 yards and 5 scores in relief of Snell in 2018. Rose’s 6.2 yards per carry demonstrates that he might be more of an open-field threat than Snell, although he’ll be hard-pressed to better Snell’s short-yardage production. Freshmen Kavosiey Smoke and Chris Rodriguez impressed in brief bursts of playing time, but each managed to redshirt.
The X-factor in Kentucky’s ground game is Wilson, the mobile QB who rushed for 547 yards and 4 scores last season. In some games, Wilson struggled with RPO reads, but if he can do a better job of determining when the pull the ball and when to leave it with the back, he could threaten the 1,000 yard mark himself — which would make matters easier for Rose and the line.
Still, Kentucky’s productivity almost has to drop a bit without Snell — perhaps not so much in yardage as in general efficiency. With Snell, on 3rd-and-2, conversions were almost inevitable. Those will be hard shoes to fill, and until Kentucky can fill them, its ground game will likely take a small step back.
Special teams: Better
Kentucky’s kicking game was sloppy in 2018, with attempts divided between senior Miles Butler, who was accurate, but not terribly viable on long kicks (just 4-for-8 beyond 30 yards) and freshman Chance Poore, who went 2-for-4 but managed to keep his redshirt season. Poore will have the job in 2019, and has looked much better in spring work. Missed field goals hurt Kentucky a few times, especially in its overtime loss at Texas A&M.
Meanwhile, Lynn Bowden gives Kentucky a home-run threat on kick and punt returns, although it’ll be interesting to see if the UK staff uses him less on special teams with his receiving skills being a pivotal part of the offense.
Overall: Better
Kentucky’s offense didn’t post great numbers in 2018, but it won games largely on the back of the defense. That defense will struggle to equal its 2018 marks this season, but it will give the offense the freedom to take a few more shots. Wilson is a year older and wiser, and while Snell will be missed, Kentucky returns capable running back talent.
Kentucky will pass the ball better in 2019 than it did in 2018, which might take the sting out of a slight decline in the ground game.
Kentucky’s program figures to be more balanced in 2019, both in terms of the run versus the pass and also in terms of relying on the offense as well as the defense. Wilson and Rose could surprise — and Kentucky might well need them to, if the Wildcats want to approach last season’s results.
Bowden and Rose are going to be special to watch this season.
“Slightly”
Kentucky’s ground game will take a hit. Snell was phenomenal, and I foresee many punts and turnover on downs without him. I’m sure they’ll have an “okay” running game, but Snell was elite.
Chris Rodriguez will be the RB of the future at Kentucky. Lock that up.
wishful thinking…
Tell us your analysis of Rodriguez. I’m curious. Why exactly can’t he be the back of the future?
BAG you appear to be an expert on the UK football program. Therefore, I agree with Bourbon Blue, tell us your analysis and why he can’t be the back of the future?
Why don’t you, All the SEC tell us what he left out? You know everything about everything, so go ahead and tell the ‘rest of the story’.
I would love to know you sources.
But as usual, you go away and hide when pressured to tell us what we don’t know.
Don’t you fell great now that someone finally responded to your post.
Whoopee!
I think his ssources are from the NCAA.
Rodrigeuz did carry twice, that’s two times, last year.
AND he did average 21.7 yards a carry.
SO of course he can be ALMOST the greatest running back in Kentucky football history.
(We will now wait fo AlltheSEC to tell us the ‘rest of the story’ And let’s not forget the FOUR carries for Kavosiey Smoke. He averaged 11.3 carries.
Heck, we’re loaded!
Dear regular SDS readers… you’ll probably just want to skip this response and read something else… but Paris10 asked.
Thank you so much Paris10! I wasn’t going to respond to any of your comments on this article but you have come out and ‘attack’ me I will respond to you. BTW, I tried to respond last night but my response went into the ‘under moderation zone’ because I included a couple of links for more information about Mr. Rodriguez.
I’ll enumerate things for you to make it easier for you to respond if you wish.
1) My response to Black and Garnet (BAG) was a response a result of him already saying the Cats ‘will finish last in the east’. Since he is on commenting so boldly on a UK story, I simply wanted him to back up his analysis. If you will notice, Bourbon Blue made a similar statement. (For what it’s worth, you at least did some homework before posting and actually looked up last year’s stats for Rodriguez, so hats off to you.)
2) Great question about the ‘rest of the story’ – I bet Paul Harvey would be proud of you. Since there is limited actual college statics for Rodriguez about the only thing anyone can do is look at summary of his high school stats. You can find a synopsis of high school stats on the UK Athletics site and I’m sure the major recruiting sites will have some additional information.
3) I’ll go and hide… from you??? Bahahahahahaha, Bahahahahahaha!!! Has anyone else here who follows the UK stories noticed that he doesn’t respond when I point out what Paris10 leaves out?
4) Yes, I feel wonderful when people respond to my reasonable posts with reasonable answers. Just a couple of days ago I posted a reasonable question for Bama fans about de-commitments and two people gave me a reasonable response. The same goes for the question I posted on an Arkansas story. A couple of their fans responded and game me some additional insight into their program.
You can pull your normal routine of getting offended if you want but it really doesn’t matter because most of the regular posters here on the site know all about you.
Please note: I did not say anything about your age, health or wife and in my opinion, you are not a Louisville fan.
Why do you think so? I didn’t get to go to the Spring game. Did he play well in the game? The ‘rumors’ I heard was that Smoke had pulled a little in front of him… but then that’s rumors. I think they are both going to be good backs.
SevenT, why do you say Rodriguez will be the RB of the future for the Cats? Did he play really well at the Spring game? What are you basing the statement on? I think Smoke was more highly rated out of high school but that’s no guarantee on anything.
I am told by someone on the UK staff that the coaching staff is very high on Rodriguez. He has a simple style like Snell, runs hard and falls forward. He is the type of RB that gets tough yards. I believe he will get plenty of opportunities next year based on the information I received.
It was fun having the UK ranked so high last year.
It was a banner year for UK – they beat Florida for the first time since 1986, they had their first winning SEC record since 1977, and won a New Year’s Day bowl game for the first time since 1952.
The Wildcats have a great coach in Mark Stoops and the schedule doesn’t look too bad so there is reason for hope.
After finishing 10-3 and #11 or #12 in the Coaches and AP polls, it just seems difficult to imagine the Wildcats replicating that same kind of success after losing Benny Snell, Josh Allen, and a plethora of seniors and all the experience that goes with them.
IMHO and with all due respect – I think Kentucky does worse.
Another pretty fair assessment IMO. I think the running game will be more than slightly worse. Snell was just an absolute beast. The passing game will be better. At least it certainly should. The entire offensive plan will change as the writer stated so they will definitely be throwing more. Wilson is the key or should I say his improvement is the key. I guess I should say Wilson and the defense. Josh Allen was the other beast and neither he nor Snell will be replicated anytime soon. I agree with 94. Stoops is a darn good coach and will have his team ready. if any opponent doesn’t come prepared to play they may get a rude awakening.
Snell was certainly special. Rose isn’t shabby, Rodriguez and Smoke have shown some spark. There were several games Snell was held well under 100 yards. The side effect of teams being able to focus on one back and his style.
will finish last in the east
So this is the year SC beats UK?
I’m sure. Stoops surprised me with improvements for two years . . .in a row. That’s not Mark. Out of all the stoops he is the worse. So for Ky to think he a good coach means he has changed his star. I’ve watched him for a while before he became coach at KY. And I never expected him to be a threat. And without a flagrant ky biased replay booth call last year KY would barely be a top 25 team. But the dream is over wildcat fans. And last in the east is more likely than 3rd. This writer is more about wishful thinking than facing the hard facts. Without the blocking back for snell, Snell himself, the center and guard your rushing game is doa. And your passing game has yet to be conceived. Bring your replay official with you but I doubt he gets enough bad call opportunities to help you this time.
I can’t believe you are still crying about the pass interference call.
Maybe time for you to move on
I’ll put that down ZouCat… the Wildcats will be last in the SEC east.
It sounds like the last five years have been hard on you lol.
I’ll put that down BAG… the Cats will be last in the SEC.
…and what were the results of USC vs UK game in 2014? 2015? 2016? 2017? 2018? If memory serves, and I believe it does, USC hasn’t beaten UK since the Joker Phillips days.
It sounds like the last five years have been hard on you lol.
Will stomp the chickens for 6th straight time
Everyone remember that the SDS writers said that the losses of Benny Snell and 4/5 of Florida’s O-line doesn’t really matter when in a few days from now they claim that the loss of Deebo Samuel will completely cripple USC’s offense.
Cocky I don’t recall anything that and don’t believe it. He will be missed but crippled? Hardly. The only crippling thing I see is your schedule. You guys may very well finish ahead of vandy and ky but maybe not.
Yeah but we should finish ahead of the Vols though.
The only team in the East that is improbable is UGA. We are talented enough to beat everyone else in our Division.
Muschamp is gonna b on the hot seat if he doesn’t, on paper we’re much better than either of them.
QB play will be better, running back will take a step back, O-line will be equal to or better, and receiving group is a big question mark and key to how well the offense does. Fourth in the east at worst. Go CATS!!!
Yep, sure, better than last year.
Does that mean we might beat Tennessee?
Beat Florida!
Although I don’t believe UK will be better I will be rooting for them in every game except ours. Take UF and UTjr down again.
I didn’t know they beat Tennessee last year.
Amazing
Apparently you don’t know the difference between UT and UTjr.
Nope, apparently I don’t.
But with this wonderful evaluation by Mr Cox, why aren’t the Men of ‘our version of Stoops’ ranked?
I bet most teams who win ten games, have the Conference Coach of the Year, are ranked.
And since “our version of Soops’ says he’s never regressed, would’t a ten win season ,or a 11 game win season or glory be to Miracle Mitch on highest a twelve game win season get you rated?
More over Alabama, the new king of SEC football has arrived!!