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Betting Stuff: How to bet on Kentucky’s Rob Dillingham in the 2024 NBA Draft

Published: Jun 24, 2024 · 7:02 PM EDT

Contrast this year’s NBA Draft with last year’s for a moment. Those who followed the league evenly passively knew who the No. 1 pick would be in last year’s draft for a year. The NBA Draft lottery selection was a determination of who would have the right to draft Victor Wembanyama. Draft night was a celebration of the Frenchman. There was little drama.

Fast forward 12 months and the NBA finds itself in a much different setting. There is virtually no consensus at the top of the draft. There is no can’t-miss prospect that even reached the same stratosphere as Wemby, no player that is a lock to go No. 1 when the Atlanta Hawks are placed on the clock.

In recent months, Alex Sarr, a forward from Perth, Australia, was thought to be the presumptive No. 1 choice. But he hasn’t worked out for the Hawks and, as of publication, is no longer expected to be the top pick. UConn big man Donovan Clingan could be the choice for Atlanta at No. 1, or he could fall outside the top 5. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony and several others have French wing Zaccharie Risacher as the new No. 1 pick.

You are forgiven if this is the first time you’re hearing about Risacher.

As the college basketball season unfolded, draft analysts warned of how weak this 2024 class would look, especially in comparison to the last crop of rookies to enter the NBA. As draft night has drawn near (Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN), the field looks historically weak.

There is no consensus. There are very few players who look like sure-fire All-Stars. And that sets the stage for a potentially wild first round.

Teams will reach on players because the risk of doing so won’t seem as significant as it would otherwise be. If you can land a multi-contract role player in this draft, you did well. And while there aren’t a ton of future stars, there do appear to be a ton of solid role players.

Teams will shuffle the board. San Antonio has 2 picks in the top 10. Portland has 2 lottery picks. Oklahoma City has an army of future picks. New York has multiple late firsts and an early second. It’ll be a potentially dizzying night. And that’s good news for projected late-lottery players and late-first-rounders. Those guys rise in drafts like this.

But that means others have to fall. The belief heading into draft night is that Kentucky’s Rob Dillingham could be one of those players who slides. Potentially out of the top 10. Maybe even out of the lottery altogether.

At Kentucky, he was listed as a 6-foot-3, 176-pound guard. At the scouting combine in Chicago, Dillingham measured at 6-foot-1, 164 pounds with a 6-foot-3 wingspan.

Kyrie Irving was just a shade under 6-foot-2 without shoes when he entered the league, with a 6-4 wingspan. But he’s arguably one of the best ball-handlers the NBA has ever seen. Jalen Brunson entered the league at 6-2, but he was more than 30 pounds heavier as a rookie than Dillingham is.

With a slender frame and a small frame, there are concerns about Dillingham being too much of a liability on the defensive end and too inconsistent a finisher against contact to render his elite shot-making moot.

If it’s not San Antonio at No. 8, it’s hard to find a landing spot in the back half of the lottery. Most of those teams don’t need a guard (Sacramento, Portland) or have a history of targeting players with better measurables (Oklahoma City).

ESPN Bet and DraftKings both have Dillingham’s draft position at 11.5. The under on DraftKings carries -110 odds while the over at ESPN Bet is currently +105.

Here’s a round-up of some of the top mock drafts available right now:

Jonathan Givony, ESPN — No. 8, San Antonio Spurs
Jeff Zillgitt, Scooby Axson, USA Today — No. 8, San Antonio Spurs
Kevin O’Connor, The Ringer — No. 11, Chicago Bulls
Jonathan Wasserman, B/R — No. 11, Chicago Bulls
Sam Vecenie, The Athletic — No. 14, New Orleans Pelicans (via Golden State)
Adam Finkelstein, CBS Sports — No. 15, Miami Heat
Krysten Peek, Yahoo Sports — No. 16, Philadelphia 76ers

Dillingham had a pre-draft visit with San Antonio last week, per Givony. He also visited Detroit (picks 5, 53) and Utah (10, 29, 32).

The Spurs are a strong option. For one thing, he sounds like a Spurs player.

“Whether you’re starting, whether you’re not — I just want to come in and play my role and do the best I can. If a coach wants me to do that, I can do that,” the SEC’s Sixth Man of the Year told the Lexington Herald-Leader. “I feel like I can do whatever a coach wants me to do, whether it’s pass, shoot or clap for my teammates.”

Dillingham would seamlessly fit into San Antonio’s offense and he’d benefit tremendously from Wembanyama’s gravitational pull. As a pick-and-roll partner, Dillingham could thrive. And his defensive shortcomings wouldn’t be as damaging because the Spurs have a man nicknamed “The Alien” roaming the paint to abduct even the best shot attempts.

San Antonio has size elsewhere in the lineup to make up for the diminutive guard, but it lacks the kind of explosive scoring punch he brings to the table.

Dillingham is a microwave scorer, comparable to Lou Williams. He’s dynamic with the ball in his hands and has great control even when operating at high tempos. None should question his ability to create separation at the NBA level. If he can score like Lemon Pepper Lou, whoever takes him will be happy.

Inch for inch, I believe @KentuckyMBB Rob Dillingham is the most skilled player in this @NBADraft. His handle is Kyrie-like, shoots 44% from three and will never be afraid of the big moment. I think he’s going to trend towards @JCrossover-Lou Williams status some day.

— Fran Fraschilla (@franfraschilla) June 24, 2024

At DraftKings, Dillingham being the selection at No. 8 has +850 odds.

If San Antonio goes in a different direction (Devin Carter is the betting favorite to go No. 8 at DraftKings), I like Dillingham to slip past that 11.5 number and be a late-lottery pick.

Because of his ability to score, handle the basketball, and serve as a distributor — he averaged 6.6 assists per 40 in his lone season at Kentucky, with a 29.7% assist rate — Dillingham is a great option for a team looking to swing on a high-level offensive creator.

Chicago (pick 11) just traded for a 6-9 point guard and Dillingham doesn’t fit the profile Oklahoma City (12) typically drafts. Sacramento (13) is reportedly bringing back Malik Monk and Portland doesn’t need a guard. After Chicago picks, a trade could certainly happen.

If you like the Dillingham-Spurs connection, head to DraftKings and back him as the choice for the No. 8 pick. If not, I’m looking at ESPN Bet, where the over 11.5 prop has +105 odds.

Derek Peterson

Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.