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Kentucky’s defensive issues were front-and-center on Saturday night in its embarrassing loss to John Calipari and Arkansas.
The Wildcats allowed Arkansas — a team who had the 160th-best schedule-adjusted offense in the country during the month of January, per BartTorvik — to pour in 89 points on the road. The Hogs put up 1.23 points per possession, making this their 4th most-efficient offensive performance of the season. The only better outings on a per-possession basis came against Maryland Eastern Shore, Oakland, North Carolina A&T and Central Arkansas.
Previously, Arkansas’s best offensive output against an SEC opponent this season was when it scored 1.04 points per possession against Georgia on Jan. 22. For context, the gap between 1.23 points per possession and 1.04 points per possession would be the difference in having the 2nd-best offense in the country versus having the 219th-best offense in the country (if extrapolated over a full season).
But while Arkansas was breaking new ground, this was all-too-familiar for a Kentucky defense that has been exposed for the better part of 2025.
The Wildcats have now given up more than 1.2 points per possession in 5 of their last 9 power-conference games. Since that streak began on Dec. 21, UK has gone 4-5 in such games and has a schedule-adjusted defensive rating that ranks 162nd nationally, per BartTorvik.
Can this issue be fixed?
History says it will be difficult. All of Pope’s best teams have been great offensively and suspect at times on defense. His best BYU team in 2024 ranked 14th in offense and 60th in defense, per KenPom. Never once has he produced a defense ranked inside the top 25 in schedule-adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom’s calculations. Even Pope’s best defense of his career — 2021 at BYU — had a familiar fatal flaw: it wasn’t disruptive. That BYU team ranked 327th nationally in defensive turnover rate. It thrived mostly on the basis of opponents missing 3-point shots and free throws.
That profile is strikingly similar to what we’re seeing from the Wildcats this season. Kentucky has held opponents to a 3-point percentage under 30% (top-25 nationally) but it also ranks just 341st nationally in defensive turnover rate. That lack of havoc paired with the absence of an elite rim protector (especially when Amari Williams is off the floor) has resulted in a relative layup line for opposing offenses. And when teams aren’t scoring at the rim, they’re getting excellent looks from mid-range.
Kentucky’s lack of turnover creation isn’t by itself disqualifying. Plenty of good teams in recent seasons have not forced turnovers on defense and still found success in March (including national runner-up Purdue last season. However, typically teams without turnovers in their defensive profile will be extremely disciplined when it comes to not fouling. Kentucky is not that. The Wildcats have a defensive free throw rate that ranks 102nd nationally, per KenPom. It slips to 11th in SEC play. That on its own is not catastrophic, but the lack of turnovers and fouling discipline is a big problem.
Kentucky is currently allowing an opponent effective field goal percentage above 48% while forcing fewer than 10.5 turnovers per game and sending teams to the free throw line more than 21 times per game. Since 2010-11, only 6 teams have qualified for the NCAA Tournament while meeting those thresholds. That list includes the 2021 Ohio State team that lost in the first round as a No. 2 seed as well as the 2022 Purdue squad that lost to Saint Peter’s in the Sweet 16.
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Pope doesn’t have the rosiest of NCAA Tournament résumés, either. His BYU teams were upset as No. 6 seeds in the first round both times that he made the Big Dance.
Things have only grown more concerning during conference play. In the month of January, Kentucky has allowed opponents to shoot a staggering 78% at the rim (74-of-95, per CBB Analytics). That is beyond horrendous — the Division I average is roughly 62%. UK’s defense also performed below-average vs. paint 2-pointers and mid-range 2-pointers during the month of January.
There’s also this: What if teams start making 3-pointers against Kentucky, as Arkansas did (13-of-25) to great effect on Saturday night?
All of these defensive concerns come with the backdrop of Kentucky having an elite offense. Over the same sample of games that Kentucky has struggled on defense vs. power-conference competition, the Wildcats have the nation’s No. 2-ranked schedule-adjusted offense, per BartTorvik.
But even so, history points to bleak outcomes for teams with Kentucky’s statistical profile. According to BartTorvik, the 10 programs most-similar to UK’s efficiency profile since 2008 went on to produce just 1.2 tournament wins on average. Only 4 of the 10 teams made it to the 2nd weekend of the NCAA Tournament and none reached the Final Four.
Kentucky still has time to figure things out, but confidence is waning in the Wildcats’ ability to do so. FanDuel has UK at +800 to make the Final Four as of publication.
Kentucky will try to right the ship on Tuesday night as it travels to face Ole Miss in Oxford.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.