KENTUCKY
David and Georgia? How Kentucky can match up with the Bulldogs
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After years of sitting on the sidelines of big-time SEC football like a wall flower at his high school prom, Kentucky find itself ready to bust a move Saturday afternoon against Georgia with the SEC title on the line. The question is, how will Kentucky compete with a Georgia team that has clearly superior talent?
The question isn’t a slight to UK. Kirby Smart’s past two classes are better than any except perhaps Alabama’s. Kentucky hasn’t gotten to 5-1 in SEC play without a large number of capable athletes. But Georgia has a much larger number.
Here’s how they match up.
Defense wins?
Kentucky’s hopes of an upset start and end with its outstanding defense. UK leads the SEC (and ties for the national lead) in scoring defense, allowing just 13 points per game, and is second in the league allowing just 295 yards per game.
Kentucky hasn’t faced Alabama or its 54.1 point per game scoring attack. Georgia does rank second in the league with 38.6 points per game — although admittedly, that’s not far ahead of No. 4 Missouri (35.5 PPG) or No. 5 Florida (32.2 PPG).Kentucky just held Missouri three full touchdowns under its season average and halved Florida’s scoring average in their Week 2 matchup in Gainesville.
Kentucky’s 22 sacks rank fourth in the SEC, within striking distance of Alabama’s league-leading 26 sacks. Meanwhile, Georgia ranks dead last in the conference, dropped opposing passers only 10 times all season.
Kentucky’s Josh Allen is personally responsible for 10 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss. Kentucky will need a big game from Allen, and possibly also pass rusher Jamar Watson, who lines up opposite Allen and has taken advantage of double-teams to UK’s star to quietly post four sacks himself.
3rd-and-long?
Putting Georgia in 3rd-and-long situations would be critical because the Bulldogs have converted 47.4% of their third down attempts, second-best in the SEC. Throughout their 36-17 win over Florida, UGA was able to turn 3rd-and-manageable situations into clock-killing first downs. All 3 of Jake Fromm’s TD passes against Florida came on third down. Kentucky is fourth in the SEC in time of possession and their defense is best when it can get off the field. Incidentally, when Fromm passes on 3rd-and-10 or more, he has thrown 3 interceptions in his 14 pass attempts.
Run to win?
Offensively, Kentucky will try to strike behind RB Benny Snell, whose 935 rushing yards lead the SEC and pace Kentucky’s 214 yards per game rushing (No. 4 in the SEC). Georgia has been only ho-hum against the run defensively, allowing 140.5 yards per game on the ground (No. 8 in the SEC) and allowing 4.2 yards per carry. Snell comes off a mediocre game last week at Missouri, but any hint of failure is eternal motivational fire to him.
Pass to not lose?
Kentucky’s marginal passing game is a cause for concern, but Wildcats backers should take heart in knowing that Georgia has only 5 interceptions despite playing from ahead and facing a large number of pass attempts throughout the season. Meanwhile, Georgia is incredibly stingy in turnovers itself, throwing just 4 interceptions and losing 3 fumbles in eight games. It is worth noting that more than half of the season’s turnovers came in UGA’s sole loss at LSU.
The Final Plan?
In essence then, Kentucky’s game plan against Georgia should look like its game plan most weeks. UK hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game this season. Georgia has scored 36 or more in every game except its loss to LSU. Kentucky has to hold UGA a decent bit below 36 points to have a good shot to win.
What would that look like? Some big plays from the pass rush, maybe an opportune turnover or two (or four like LSU did). Mostly, it looks like Kentucky doing the things it has done defensively all season. Can they stop the run as well as they did against Mississippi State, while also holding down the pass game as well as they did at Missouri?
Offensively, Kentucky needs a good but not necessarily great day from Snell. The passing game needs to find a few holes in the UGA secondary without coughing up any ill-timed turnovers. Lynn Bowden might not catch 13 passes like he did at Mizzou, but UK needs to find a way of again making his touches count. Keeping the ball for 35 minutes or so wouldn’t hurt.
Mark Stoops said at this weekly press conference that Kentucky needs to play its best game of the season to win. While that’s probably true, the good news is that many of the critical spots are ones in which the Wildcats have already asserted themselves.
It all comes down to this…. Lets get this EZ dub…
You’re a moron
It comes down to this for Georgia. How do we stop Josh Allen from sacking our QB?
Probably hold him like crazy and hope the refs keep on not calling it.
The outcome of the game Saturday rests on a lot more than Josh Allen.
i’m guessing this is going to be a low scoring game, UGA up with minutes left and Kentucky choking when they have a chance late. UGA W 17-13
Because Kentucky has choked hard down the stretch in several games this year, right?
Beating Missouri by a single point due to a TD thrown during the last, untimed play (which was the result of a controversial call) is practically choking, especially when you’re ranked top-15 and Missouri is winless in the SEC.
You mean like Georgia getting the dogsh** kicked out of them by LSU. I would think a team as highly ranked as Georgia would have been able to keep the game close. Most years Georgia is the better team, but not this one. Kentucky is the better team. UK wins 24-17 against the puppies.
Hahahah, UK1970 you idiot, 34-17 Dawgs dominated your over-rated Cats.
You’re also a moron
UK will need some offense, so hopefully Terry/Benny and company can dig up some of the mojo they had down in Gainesville. The UK defense can and will contain Gawgia to below their average. So, it will depend on which offense can generate some points at critical times. I am looking forward to it!
UGA wins 28-3. I don’t see any garbage TDs for Kentucky in this one, UGA has too much talent. If you struggled with Mizzou, you won’t beat Georgia.
I was thinking more 27-10 Blankenship good for at least 2 FG in this game UK D is stout. We will load the box and they burn us on a big play for TD….once Benny breaks some big runs but Dawgs use that bend don’t break he may punch one in after said big play but this UGA o line gonna possesses after that goal line stand by UF or least someone should have lit a fire under their big asses
Right, Georgia scores 28 on this defense. Idiot
Central Michigan put up 20, did they not?
UK has scored at least TD in every game this year, even against better run defenses than Georgia. UK is playing at home and has only allowed 12.3 pts per game against SEC opponents and Georgia is going to put 27 on us in our house. BAHAHAHAHA. UK wins and sends the puppies home with their tails between their legs.
I love that the go-to “insult” when trash talking UGA is to call the team puppies. Makes me laugh. We’re not in 2nd grade, you can do better.
That 16-point performance against LSU was primarily due to 4 turnovers. Don’t count on that again. Dawgs will ring up 30 minimum, so that’s the bar I’m thinking KY’s offense has to get over. I just don’t see it – too one-dimensional. If UGA can grab an early two-score lead and force KY away from their strengths, it could be over with 20 minutes still to play. Common opponents tell us a lot in this case.
This is certainly the most potent offense we’ve faced all year, but I don’t see any situation where Kentucky gives up more than 30. Georgia hasn’t played a defense like Kentucky’s this year. Nobody has had a two-score lead over Kentucky this year except for Mizzou, which is a testament to our defense. Although you’re right that our offense is one-dimensional, the defense has made that not matter as much.
Also, if you want to fall into the faulty “Kentucky played X a lot closer than we did, therefore we should win” logic, then y’all should’ve lost to Florida last week too since they beat LSU and you didn’t. So I disagree that common opponents offer any real measure of what the outcome should be when two teams play each other.
One or two common opponents, maybe. Four begins to tell a story. And LSU’s D is every bit as lethal as Kentucky’s – certainly more Sunday players on that squad.
You’re right, comparing a single common opponent can be tricky, but UK and UGA have four common opponents, which offers plenty of good data. This is a comment posted by “smsatUGA” on the SDS article “TOMMY TUBERVILLE SAYS GEORGIA IS ‘A VERY AVERAGE FOOTBALL TEAM’”:
Benny Snell 179 rushes / 935 yards / 9 TD’s
Holyfield/Swift 168 rushes / 1025 yards / 9 TD’s
Wilson 153 attempts / 988 yards / 5 TD’s / 6 Int’s
Fromm 172 attempts / 1649 yards / 16 TD’s / 4 Int’s
UGA Points Scored 309 / Points Allowed 131
UK Points Scored 205 / Points Allowed 104
4 Common SEC Opponents for 2018
UGA 161-76, average +21.25
UK 80-47, average + 8.25
Of the four common opponents, UGA won by almost three times the margin. That is very telling.
boxster355,
Want to know what is more telling than all that bs you just posted? The score at the end of the game on Saturday because that’s all that really matters. Can your defense stop us and can our defense stop you? I think we have the better team and you think you have the better team. After Saturday, we will know for certain who the better team is.
For Georgia I think it come down to loading up to stop the run and forcing UK to pass. If Ga can slow down the run game, I don’t think UK has the ability to hurt them very much with their passing game.
I think Jake Fromm will be the difference. Both teams run the ball well. Ga passes it better, and has a more balanced offensive attack.
UK will have to establish a ball control clock eating run game, or get just enough of a run game while finding a way to hit a few big passing plays to win. Ga’s offense won’t look like Missouri’s of last week. It’s going to take 24 or more points to win this game.
It’s going to be talented youth for Ga against the seasoned veterans of UK. Should be a great game.
Wilson is a dual threat QB and it is going to be difficult for your to contain him. He just has to pass enough to keep your safeties and corners honest. After that, its going to be the Snell & Wilson show. This team is going to be fired up to play.
After reading this article, I’ll be surprised if Georgia gets a first down.
And with the Cats 103 ranked offense, heck we should win by at least three touchdowns.
With us winning the EAST before this game is even played, may we should swap with Arkansas and demand we can play in the other division.
Benny will run hell, west and crooked, get, what, 250 yards against the Dawgs, and the Cats will win going away.
Or if Georgia is as bad as the BBN says they are and they slip up and beat us by thirty, with them being bad, what would that say about us?
wrong article paris10,
you need to be over at the volnation where your real team is.