Now that the NCAA Tournament bracket is set, fans everywhere are trying to figure out which matchup of a No. 5 seed and No. 12 seed will produce an upset.

The 5-12 upset is a staple of March Madness, and many fans are settling on No. 5 Kentucky going down to No. 12 Davidson.

According to ESPN analyst Myron Medcalf, coach John Calipari’s team is indeed in trouble in the first round:

Medcalf says Davidson played great in the Atlantic 10 tournament, which seems to indicate he didn’t see Kentucky win the SEC Tournament for the fourth year in a row. Both Wildcat squads are clicking on all cylinders entering March Madness.

According to KenPom.com, the Wildcats have the No. 25 offense in terms of adjusted efficiency and the No. 23 defense. Davidson, meanwhile, has the No. 18 offense, but the No. 115 defense. Anything can happen in March, but fans looking for a 5-12 upset may want to look elsewhere.