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Kentucky will kickoff the 2024 season in just a couple of weeks.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has updated its projections for each one of UK’s games in 2024. The Wildcats will face 8 SEC opponents plus a nonconference schedule that is headlined by a home game against Louisville to close out the regular season.
Here’s FPI’s win probability for Kentucky in each of its 12 contests this fall:
- Aug. 31: vs. Southern Miss — 85.8%
- Sept. 7: vs. South Carolina — 55.7%
- Sept. 14: vs. Georgia — 12%
- Sept. 21: vs. Ohio — 87.5%
- Sept. 28: at Ole Miss — 70.7%
- Oct. 12: vs. Vanderbilt — 77.5%
- Oct. 19: at Florida — 66.2%
- Oct. 26: vs. Auburn — 46.2%
- Nov. 2: at Tennessee — 20.6%
- Nov. 16: vs. Murray State — 98.6%
- Nov. 23: at Texas — 10.6%
- Nov. 30: vs. Louisville — 44.3%
Those win probabilities all add up to 5.8 projected wins for Kentucky this season. That’s just slightly below Vegas’ currently expectation for UK in 2024. Most sportsbooks have the Wildcats’ regular-season win total set at 6.5 for the 2024 season. Optimistic Kentucky fans could bet on the over at -130 at bet365.
Kentucky is favored in 7 games this season, according to FPI. The Wildcats are also relatively-narrow underdogs in 2 more contests — against Auburn and Louisville. The only games where FPI views Kentucky as a significant underdog are against Georgia, Tennessee and Texas. Of those 3 contests, only the Georgia game will be played in Lexington.
Kentucky is coming off of back-to-back 7-6 seasons. The Wildcats went 3-5 in SEC play in each of those campaigns, and now arguably face a tougher schedule than they normally would have due to conference realignment. Kentucky will face Texas in the penultimate game of the regular season.
Kentucky will open the 2024 season against Southern Miss on Aug. 31.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
