ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) predicts the outcome of each college football game ahead of every weekend. With 13 weeks already behind us, the model has now been updated for rivalry week.

One of the anticipated rivalry matchups is between Louisville and Kentucky in the Governor’s Cup. The model sees the Cardinals as a big favorite, giving the team a 70.1% chance to win the rivalry clash. This means the Wildcats have just a 29.9% chance to pull off the upset at home.

Entering Week 14, the Cardinals have a 7-4 record. The team achieved bowl eligibility at the beginning of the month after pulling off an upset of Clemson. However, the team responded by losing to Stanford the following week. The Cardinals have losses to Notre Dame, SMU, Miami, and Stanford.

Sports betting is live in Kentucky! Check out the SDS guide to the best KY sports betting apps!

The Wildcats, meanwhile, have had a disappointing season. The team is 4-7 entering this weekend, meaning they can’t reach a bowl game even with a win. This will be the 1st time since 2015 that the Wildcats have failed to reach a bowl. Kentucky has losses to South Carolina, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, and Texas.

In 2024, the Cardinals have been boosted by a top-15 offense, while the Wildcats have a bottom-15 unit.

These in-state rivals have faced off annually since 1994 (except for 2020). The Wildcats have 20 wins in the series while the Cardinals have 15. It’s been a one-sided series of late, however, with the Wildcats currently enjoying a 5-game win streak over their rival. The Cardinals last defeated the Wildcats in 2017.

The 2024 version of this matchup will kick off from Kroger Field on Saturday at noon ET.