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Kentucky vs. Arkansas preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Published: Jan 27, 2024 · 11:00 AM EST

Kentucky will travel to Fayetteville on Saturday for a major SEC clash as the Wildcats look to get back in the win column.

UK is hoping to avoid a second-straight loss this week after it dropped a road game to South Carolina on Tuesday. For the Hogs, it’s about trying to get their season back on track — and picking up a much-needed Quad 1 win — against a Kentucky team it has beaten in Fayetteville just once in the last decade.

Let’s examine some betting trends and advanced stats to get a better idea of what this matchup will look like:

Kentucky vs. Arkansas Betting Odds

Spread: Kentucky -6.5 (DraftKings)

Total: Over/Under 163 points (DraftKings)

Betting trends to know for Kentucky

Kentucky is…

11-7 against the spread
2-2 against the spread on the road
1-1 against the spread as a road favorite
3-3 against the spread in SEC games

Kentucky has been strong against the spread so far this season. However, there’s not much a sample size for the Wildcats in this specific spot as a road favorite. Kentucky covered as a road favorite against Louisville earlier this season but then got blasted by South Carolina in that same spot in its most recent game. Now, the Wildcats are heading to face an Arkansas team that has been reeling since the calendar turned to 2024.

Betting trends to know for Arkansas

Arkansas is…

5-14 against the spread
5-6 against the spread at home
1-3 against the spread vs. ranked opponents
1-5 against the spread in SEC games
2-6 against the spread as an underdog
2-1 against the spread as a home underdog

It’s difficult to find a positive trend for the Razorbacks this season. Arkansas is 10-9 overall and is ranked outside of the top-100 in KenPom. Not only is this Arkansas team on track to be its worst squad in the Eric Musselman era, but you’d have to go all the way back to 2015-16 to find Razorbacks’ team outside of KenPom’s top-100. Arkansas has consistently underperformed against market expectations, which is why the Hogs are big underdogs at home on Saturday.

3 notes for the game

Both teams are entering this game off of a low-point

Kentucky is a top-25 team, but the Wildcats are licking their wounds a little bit after getting thrashed by South Carolina in the mid-week. The Gamecocks pulled away in the 2nd half of that game for a dominant 79-62 victory. Kentucky shot just over 40% from the field in that one and coach John Calipari cited a lack of physicality from his team when breaking down the game after the final whistle.

Arkansas’ downward trend has been a bit more steep. The Razorbacks have lost 5 of 6 and have been largely uncompetitive in each of those losses. Their lone victory over this stretch was a 1-point home win over Texas A&M. All 5 of their losses in this span have come by double digits and 3 of them have been by 20+ points. Offensively, it’s been a real struggle for Arkansas. Amongst the Razorbacks’ top-7 leaders in minutes played, only 1 player (Tramon Mark) has a true shooting percentage north of 57%. In 6 SEC games this season, Arkansas is shooting just 26.9% from 3-point land and 36.4% from the floor. The Hogs also have a negative assist-to-turnover ratio in league play.

Kentucky’s road woes

It’s worth noting that Kentucky has been a different team away from Rupp Arena this year. The Wildcats haven’t won on the road since they defeated Florida 87-85 back on Jan. 6. Since then, they’ve suffered road losses to Texas A&M and South Carolina.

One thing to keep an eye on is Kentucky’s 3-point shooting percentage this season. Overall, the Wildcats have been elite as they’ve knocked down 40% of their attempts from long range (8th nationally). However, in 3 SEC road games (including the win over Florida), Kentucky is just 24-of-72 (33.3%) from beyond the arc. UK’s effective field goal percentage vs. SEC opponents on the road is just 48.5%. For the season, that number sits at an elite 57.4%. The sample size is still pretty small, but there seems to be a big difference between Kentucky’s offense at home vs. on the road against SEC competition.

Kentucky’s offense vs. Arkansas’ defense

There’s one big miss-match in this game it’s Kentucky’s dynamic offense vs. Arkansas’ putrid defense. Those units rank No. 5 and No. 109, respectively, according to KenPom’s efficiency ratings. That figures to be a huge advantage for the Wildcats as they look to get back in the win column on Saturday.

Kentucky’s offense has been powered by a couple of key factors. The Wildcats’ elite 3-point shooting has been covered, but they’re also very protective of the ball. Kentucky’s offense ranks No. 3 nationally in turnover percentage at just 13.2%. On the other side, Arkansas hardly forces any turnovers — its defense ranks 327th nationally in that category.

Kentucky has a variety of players who can hurt Arkansas in this matchup. Antonio Reeves is a steady veteran who has been exceptionally efficient this season (64.2% true shooting percentage). Tre Mitchell is one of the best shooters UK has had at the power forward position in recent memory. Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham are two of the most dynamic freshman guards in the country, and they both come off the bench for this team. The latest emerging talent is big man Zvonimir Ivisic, a versatile 7-footer who is capable of impacting the game on both ends of the floor.

Defensively, Arkansas has really struggled. This is a team that doesn’t force turnovers, doesn’t guard the perimeter and doesn’t rebound particularly well either. The Razorbacks are a solid shot-blocking team, but that’s really their only positive attribute on that end of the floor.

1 pick for this game

Kentucky -6.5. This Arkansas team has just been too flat all season — and especially lately — to back them in this spot. I think UK has a big bounce-back game after an embarrassing loss to South Carolina. Kentucky certainly could lay another egg in Fayetteville, but I’m expecting some shooting-luck regression in Kentucky’s favor after it scored just 0.98 points per possession vs. the Gamecocks. All signs point to this Kentucky offense being elite and Arkansas’ defense being abysmal by SEC standards. The Razorbacks’ offense is also dead last in the SEC in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency in league play this year.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.