I’d go with 2020 vs. No. 1 Clemson, 2012 at No. 8 Oklahoma and 2009 at No. 14 Pitt.

Oh, I assumed you read the headline and wondered to yourself, “hey, what are the 3 biggest wins of Brian Kelly’s career?”

That’s what I’d go with. Two of those came at Notre Dame, and the 2009 Big East-clinching win at Pitt was actually Kelly’s last game with Cincinnati before he bolted for South Bend. Go figure that was the last season that Kelly found himself in a division title hunt.

Thirteen years later, Kelly will have an opportunity to take control of the SEC West if he can lock up the biggest win of his career. All he has to do is beat Alabama.

No big deal, right?

As in, the overwhelming preseason No. 1 team in America that still has the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and the best coach of all-time. As in, the program that Kelly fell short against twice with a national championship on the line (technically the 2nd game was just a Playoff semifinal, but you get it). As in, the program that has 1 regular season with multiple losses in the past decade, which happened after Tua Tagovailoa went down with a season-ending hip injury.

Kelly is attempting to do the unthinkable. That is, deliver the knockout blow to Alabama.

History tells us that the teams that eliminated Alabama play for (and win) a national title.

  • 2021 Georgia, won national championship
  • 2019 LSU, won national championship
  • 2018 Clemson, won national championship
  • 2016 Clemson, won national championship
  • 2014 Ohio State, won national championship
  • 2013 Auburn, lost national championship
  • 2010 LSU, won Cotton Bowl
  • 2008 Florida, won national championship

Oh, and if you think that it was actually Auburn that delivered Alabama’s knockout blow in 2019, remember that Alabama was ranked No. 5 going into the Iron Bowl and didn’t have a conference championship to play for.

The winner of Saturday’s game in Death Valley will, in theory, have a conference championship to play for, which essentially means there’s a Playoff spot to play for. Yes, Alabama still has to face 1-loss Ole Miss, which has a daunting final 3 games ahead. But in all likelihood, the winner of Saturday’s showdown is the new obvious favorite to get to Atlanta.

Does Kelly have a chance? Let’s dig into that.

If your answer is “he got smoked by Alabama twice when he was at Notre Dame,” let this serve as a reminder that LSU is not Notre Dame and Death Valley at night is not some neutral-site game in Dallas or Miami. These are different surroundings. It doesn’t mean Kelly will automatically thrive with them, but using those examples as a basis for predicting a result on Saturday is misguided.

I mean, Kelly has many 5-star players on the 2022 LSU roster (5) as he had on his last 6 Notre Dame teams combined. By the way, that’s after LSU lost 10 players to the NFL Draft. That, combined with LSU having 39 scholarship players available for its bowl game, is why Kelly is in the SEC Coach of the Year discussion with a 6-2 team.

But this is still Alabama, which has 1 loss to LSU in the last decade and just 4 in Death Valley since Watergate (half of which were with Nick Saban coaching the Tigers). Alternatively, there’s Kelly. He has 290 wins as a college head coach, and only 1 of them came against an AP Top 5 team … and it was the 2020 COVID season wherein Notre Dame beat a Trevor Lawrence-less Clemson team in double overtime.

No, Alabama technically isn’t an AP Top 5 team. Yes, this win would be bigger than that Clemson win. Why? A Clemson rematch awaited in the ACC Championship and big, bad Alabama was there in the Playoff.

Sure, beating Alabama wouldn’t guarantee LSU anything more than a likely trip to Atlanta. But imagine Kelly checking that box in Year 1.

It’s hard to imagine for the simple fact that up until about 2 weeks ago, it was unthinkable. Shoot, maybe it’s still unthinkable. Then again, there are plenty of pieces back from an LSU defense that went into Tuscaloosa and held Young and the Tide to 20 points, all of which were scored in the first 32 minutes and 9 seconds of action. That includes the likes of Micah Bakersfield, Jay Ward and Mike Jones Jr. And speaking of those LSU 5-stars, how about the emerging Harold Perkins? He can absolutely be a thorn in Young’s side, just like Damone Clark was last year.

For all we know, Saturday will be a reminder why Matt House was such an excellent hire to maximize the talent on this LSU defense. Win or lose, that could still be a prevailing thought.

By night’s end, Kelly has a chance to show exactly why Scott Woodward broke the bank to get him down to the Bayou. I’d argue he’s already shown that just by getting LSU to host a meaningful game against Alabama. Ultimately, how Kelly fares against Alabama will define his time in Baton Rouge. On Saturday, though, his team should feel like it’s playing with house money.

For LSU, maybe that means we see the version of Jayden Daniels who put more trust in his receivers and racked up 11 total touchdowns in his past 2 games. Perhaps we see the defense that has been able to make those second-half adjustments and held its first 8 opponents to a 44% red-zone touchdown rate (No. 9 in FBS). And maybe, just maybe, we see Kelly show the world that top-5 struggles aside, he knows what he’s doing, cringy dance moves and Southern accent in all.

That should still be the consensus, even if Alabama rolls into Death Valley and blows the doors off LSU. That possibility always exists.

But this is exactly what Kelly could’ve hoped for — a chance to end Alabama’s national title hopes and control the path to Atlanta.

It doesn’t get much bigger than that.