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Less than 4 weeks ago LSU was on a roll.
The Tigers were ranked No. 12 in the country and they were 15-1 and 3-1 in the SEC. They had won 3 straight conference games, which included back-to-back wins against No. 16 Kentucky and No. 18 Tennessee in a span of 5 days.
LSU was picked to finish 6th in the SEC preseason poll and was unranked in the AP preseason poll, but the Tigers far exceeded expectations in the early going and talk about the team centered on contending for the SEC championship.
But much has changed since then. LSU has lost 6 of its past 7 games and fell from its No. 25 ranking to out of the AP poll on Monday.
Though the Tigers have slipped to 16-7 and are just 4-6 in the SEC, an NCAA Tournament berth is still a realistic possibility – if they can return to their early-season form.
But if LSU continues to play as it has for the past 3-plus weeks, it could easily play itself onto the tournament bubble and out of the NCAA picture altogether.
What’s worked (mostly)
The Tigers’ early-season success coincided with a nearly 180-degree change in personality compared to last season.
The 2020-21 Tigers averaged 81.8 points per game but were limited by average defense.
Prior to the start of the season, senior forward Darius Days, the only returning starter from last season, said he was “excited to show that we can play defense.”
The reason for Days’ excitement was evident early in the season as LSU was one of the best defensive teams in the country, which enabled it to overcome sub-par offense, until the recent slide.
But the Tigers’ current 3-game losing streak features the 3 highest-scoring games by opponents this season.
The streak began with a 77-68 road loss against TCU in the Big 12/SEC Challenge on Jan. 29, which was followed by a 76-72 home loss against Ole Miss last Tuesday and a 75-66 loss at Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Before that streak, LSU was allowing an average of 58.4 points per game.
The Tigers need to get back to playing defense the way they were until recently.
Tari Eason has been the team’s leading scorer all season, even though until very recently he was coming off the bench. Days has mostly lived up to expectations as one of the better players in the SEC.
What hasn’t worked
The offense has been inconsistent as the backcourt has provided average outside shooting.
Freshman center Efton Reid, a 5-star recruit, has been a disappointment, averaging just 7.1 points and 4.9 rebounds.
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GET BONUS!Slow starts of late
The past 2 losses have been defined by the Tigers falling behind by 20-plus points, which proved to be too much to overcome even though they made significant comebacks.
They trailed Ole Miss by 24 in the first half and twice closed within 2 points but could never pull even. They trailed Vanderbilt by 21 in the second half and couldn’t catch up despite a 16-0 run.
“We’ve charged back,” coach Will Wade said, “but we spend so much energy to get back we can’t get over the hump.”
Injuries aren’t excuses
The slide coincided with injuries to 2 starters – Days and point guard Xavier Pinson. Days was limited by an ankle injury in a loss to Alabama and a loss in the second game against Tennessee before sitting out a 70-64 win against Texas A&M on Jan. 6, the Tigers’ last victory.
Pinson has played in just 2 of the past 8 games, totaling 23 minutes, since spraining his right knee. It’s unclear if he will be a factor down the stretch.
Days’ absence was brief and even though Pinson’s absence is significant, it doesn’t fully explain the dramatic drop-off.
What’s next
LSU’s SEC schedule was front-loaded with ranked teams. The Tigers opened with and suffered their first loss of the season at then-No. 11 and now No. 1 Auburn and 4 of its first 7 league games came against ranked teams.
But the remaining 8 games feature just 1 against a ranked team – No. 5 Kentucky on the road Feb. 23.
NCAA projection
ESPN bracket analyst Joe Lunardi projects that 6 SEC teams will make the NCAA Tournament. LSU is in a 6-way tie in the loss column for 7th place in the conference and its nonconference schedule ranks 189th.
Still, prior to the loss at Vanderbilt, Lunardi had the Tigers projected as a No. 6 seed, placing them in the Southwest Region in Fort Worth, Texas.
LSU needs to post a winning record the rest of the way (including the SEC Tournament) to make the NCAA field. It doesn’t look like a team that will do that.
Les East is a New Orleans-based football writer who covers LSU for SaturdayDownSouth.com. Follow him on Twitter @Les_East.
