Crazy but true: Brian Kelly facing biggest must-win to date at South Carolina
LSU’s game at South Carolina in Week 3 didn’t figure to be a marquee game of this season.
Nor did it figure to be the biggest must-win of head coach Brian Kelly’s first 3 seasons to date.
But here we are.
It must be a marquee game because ESPN’s College GameDay show is parking itself at Williams-Brice Stadium.
That’s due in large part to this game being a potential program-defining moment for Gamecocks 4th-year head coach Shane Beamer. But this game is also a potential program-defining (and season-defining) moment for Kelly and his No. 16 Tigers.
The start of LSU seasons under Kelly have become a lot like the movie “Groundhog Day,” featuring a lot of déjà vu.
The first team opened with a disappointing performance in a loss to Florida State, then easily took care of business in its home opener against an in-state FCS opponent (a 65-17 victory against Southern) before opening SEC play at home against Mississippi State and winning 31-16.
The 2023 team opened with a disappointing performance in a loss to Florida State, then easily took care of business in its home opener against an in-state FCS opponent (a 72-10 victory against Grambling) before opening SEC play with a 41-14 win at Mississippi State. But was a mere 3-2 when it headed to Missouri amid an atmosphere reminiscent of this one.
That team was teetering as it prepared to enter an electric atmosphere against a team that was not a traditional SEC power but did appear to be an ascending team. Who knows what might have happened to that team had it lost at Missouri, but it took care of business in a 49-39 victory and went on to finish with 10 wins behind Heisman winner Jayden Daniels.
Who knows where this team might be headed? It opened with a disappointing performance in a loss to USC, the took care of business (not quite as easily as the previous 2 Week 2s) in its home opener against an in-state FCS opponent (a 44-21 victory against Nicholls, the most challenging of the 3 recent FCS opponents).
But the Tigers led just 23-21 in the 3rd quarter before finishing strongly.
And now it’s the SEC opener at South Carolina (2-0), which is not a traditional SEC power but might be an ascending team after an eye-opening 31-6 victory at Kentucky in its conference opener last Saturday.
This game doesn’t figure to turn into a shootout like the game against Missouri was, but it does represent a crossroads for this team and Kelly’s program.
If the Tigers defeat the Gamecocks for a 7th consecutive time, the sigh of relief throughout Louisiana will be audible.
But if they come up short to fall to 1-2 and 0-1 in the SEC, they will watch their Playoff hopes all but vanish in September for a 2nd consecutive season – even with the expanded 12-team field.
And the doubts will surround Kelly and his program — and not just this particular team.
Kelly rebuilt his defensive coaching staff after last season, but so far it’s unclear whether those changes are going to produce significantly better ball. The results so far have been mixed, but a good or dominant performance Saturday would significantly improve the mood moving forward.
The offense has issues, too. The Tigers did not run the ball as effectively as Nicholls did, though they did run it marginally better than USC did in Week 1.
Kentucky didn’t run the ball well against South Carolina and if LSU doesn’t do much better, then real doubt will arise as to whether the Tigers’ highly touted offensive line is as good as advertised.
The most encouraging element through 2 games has been the play of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, who leads the country with 8 touchdown passes, including a nation-best 4 scoring catches by Kyren Lacy.
A solid, complete and victorious performance Saturday will calm the waters significantly, but a loss – or even a relatively unimpressive victory – will lead to even greater concerns.
That’s why this game is the closest thing to a must-win as Kelly has had at LSU.
LSU is going to beat the breaks off SC.
Not so far…..24-16 losing to an unranked team…..My, oh, my…..LOLOLOL
I think LSU found a new shiny toy to use on offense with true FR Ju’Juan Johnson. I expect a lot of the plays to be directed away from USCe’s Dylan Stewart. It will help that Kyle Parker and Garrett Dellinger should be returning for this game at WR as well.
Losing Guillory at DT hurts, but I believe there are several rotational pieces that will help keep bodies fresh…Washington, Paez, Suggs, Lee, Reliford, Breaux, possibly McKinley.
LSU 31 South Carolina 17
28-10 Lsu
A really intriguing game. SC surprised everyone with the W at Ky. Was SC that good or Ky that bad. IMO ky looked that bad. Then lsu looked like a pretty average team to date. SC playing with nothing to lose really. If they lose they were expected to and if they win they are 3-0 and rolling downhill. lsu will be reeling with a loss. SC is usually pretty tough at WB. Im not sold on their QB but Nuss hasnt been gangbusters either for such an experienced guy. I think the QB position may be the difference in the game for either team.
Hmm…over his last 3 starts going back to the bowl game, Nussmeier has 1,001 yards passing/11 TDs/2 INTs. Just this season so far his stats are 606 yards passing/8 TDs/1 INT. Has not been sacked, and even has rushing yards. How is that not “gangbusters” as you call it? He may not be the running threat Daniels was, but he has been playing excellent football.
Sorry geaux but I cant consider 6 TD’s vs nicholls as putting him in the gangbusters column. Granted 6 TD’s against anyone is good but 2TD’s and 1 int vs a better measuring stick in USC is ok not gangbusters. Just my opinion.
Then according to you, Nico’s stats vs Chattanooga aren’t “gangbusters” either. So, only his stats vs no defense at all NC State count, right?
You did forget to mention Nuss threw for 304 yards with that 2:1 stat vs USCw that seems to have a good defense…
I’d say Nussmeier’s stats against USCw are more impressive than Nico’s against NC State..
Typical Vol nonsense. Only their stats against nobodies mean anything.
I think the reason Nuss doesn’t have even more impressive stats is the dink and dunk plays called against USC. He had few passes in which the ball traveled more than 5 yards in the air. I don’t know if these plays were called by the coaches to make up for a lack of a running game, or what. I think they waste Nuss’ talent by not letting him throw for chunk yardage. Yeah, he will probably have more INTs, but he would probably have more TDs, and it might lighten up the pressure on the running game.
I think it’ll be close for a half and then LSU will pull away handedly
The LSU offense could take advantage of how South Carolina brings pressure and put together a great screen pass game plan that would equal success.
I must say that with their experience I thought the LSU O-Line was going to be a strength, and as a byproduct their running game was going to be strong. To this point that hasn’t been the case, and USCe has a strong D-Line. This game could be more interesting to fans, other than those that have a team participating, than it was at first thought.
I tend to agree with you there. I thought the run game would be stronger, and maybe the short passes were deemed an extension of the run game. Hard to run against 7-8 man fronts sometimes.
Going to be interesting to see how they attack Carolina’s rushers off the edge. Run it, or use screen passes to offset it. I think it will be a close game until LSU puts it away in the 4th.
geaux I didnt say anything about Nico. Just commenting on this article and my impression of lsu and nuss so far. Since you brought it up I think Nico has done fine. made a couple mistakes vs nc st but hasnt had the game that puts him in the elite level IMO, at least not yet. As I said Nuss performance vs USC was good not great. If you think hes great/gangbusters thats your opinion and I wont troll you over it. You are usually pretty reasonable to chat with. Good Luck saturday.
I honestly don’t think there’s any elite QB in the SEC this year outside of Beck and Ewers.
I do think Milroe, Nico, Miss, Cook are in that second tier.
Kentucky’s OL last week made Florida’s putrid OL look good by comparison. That’s why USCe’s good DL was able to have a field day.
LSU’s OL will neutralize the USCe DL and expose their DB’s to getting burned in the passing game, which should open up LSU’s running game.
On the other side of the ball, nobody will confuse the USCe offense with the USCw offense. Therefore, this game won’t be close by the 2nd half.
SC fan
This game will come down to Sellers and the SC O-Line
I think he’s got a lot of upside, but has been less than impressive . The offense needs to produce ( not just 3-4 plays a game )
If sellers can just be “average” SC had a good chance to win
Some programs think if they just hang on for another year Georgia and Alabama will let them have a turn? I don’t think so. All champions not named Georgia and Alabama will have to pry their year out of possible other established and ascending
College football up and comers. LSU could do it but so could about 6 -7 other football teams
Alabama has by far had the most talent during the Saban years. Georgia has reached that standard and I think Ohio State is also on that level as far as talent is concerned. These are reload teams. LSU has proven that if things fall into place they can win it all because they have been well within the top ten in talent. They aren’t a reload team right now. I don’t think teams that are outside of the top ten in composite talent have a very good chance at a NC especially with the 12 team playoff. The four team playoff was a better chance for lesser talented teams to win the NC where they only need two wins i.e. TCU and Washington who were able to upset one team but not two. Now they will need more than two upsets to win it all.
The 2024 bowl Drinkwitz-Missouri was better than Ohio State (example you gave )
And numerous other examples are being recorded every year. Some of these commonly mentioned program names disappear for decades or never come back. The reason the misconception exists is one-hundred plus programs are just too hard sportswriters to measure with their journalism degrees. 99.9+ readers just can’t know what is happening. But High School players whose higher educations depend on being in the right place at the right time are WAY ahead of journalists