The ceiling is quite high for LSU in Year 2 under coach Brian Kelly.

That’s according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, who went through the outlet’s “way-too-early” top 25 earlier this week to set what he believes to be the floor and the ceiling for each team in the early 2023 ranking. Best-case scenario, as Connelly sees it, is the Tigers go 11-1. That would almost assuredly lead to a spot in the College Football Playoff, regardless of when the one loss comes. (You get the benefit of the doubt when you’ve won this thing before.)

The creator of SP+ — which has LSU ranked 7th in its early preseason model — gives Kelly and his crew a 10% chance of reaching that 11-1 mark.

The margin with this group is pretty wide though, according to Connelly. Such is life in the SEC. The worst-case scenario for LSU is a 7-5 campaign.

What’s the biggest variable that could swing things one way or the other? Connelly writes it’ll be how the Tigers fare in the big play department:

Big plays. In coach Brian Kelly’s first season in Baton Rouge, the Tigers won 10 games and stole the SEC West title with an upset of Alabama. With ever-scrambling quarterback Jayden Daniels and most of the offense returning, and with Matt House’s defense bringing in 10 transfers to pair with safety Greg Brooks Jr. and other veterans, it’s easy to think big. But winning the “easy points” battle is key to making a title push. LSU ranked 101st in marginal explosiveness* on offense and 50th on defense. Efficiency? No problem. Big plays? A bit of a problem.

* Marginal explosiveness: My go-to explosiveness measure, which looks at the magnitude of a team’s successful plays and adjusts for down, distance and field position.

Look no further than LSU’s bowl game pasting of Purdue in the Citrus Bowl.

The Tigers had 14 explosive plays and a 20% explosive play rate. On the defensive side, they held Purdue to just 3 explosive plays in 78 offensive snaps — only 1 of which went for more than 20 yards.

More of that in 2023 and the Tigers should be able to build on a 10-win Year 1 under Kelly.