LSU finished with a disappointing 6-7 overall record in 2021 and are a combined 11-12 in 2 seasons since winning the 2019 title in dominant fashion.

Entering 2022, things are changing in Baton Rouge. Gone is coach Ed Orgeron. In his place is Brian Kelly, who came to the Bayou State via Notre Dame.

He’ll have his work cut out for him to get LSU back into the ranks of elite SEC teams this fall, though. And, most importantly, he has a 4-way QB battle going between Myles Brennan, Jayden Daniels, Garrett Nussmeier and Walker Howard.

Still, there’s plenty of talent on this roster, thanks to some good work by Kelly and his staff in the transfer portal, so we’ll see if more wins are on the horizon.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has the Tigers favored to win 9 of their games during the regular season. Here are the projections for every game:

  • Sept. 4 vs. Florida State (in New Orleans) — 71.0% chance of winning
  • Sept. 10 vs. Southern — 99.5% chance of winning
  • Sept. 17 vs. Mississippi State — 68.2% chance of winning
  • Sept. 24 vs. New Mexico — 98.6% chance of winning
  • Oct. 1 at Auburn — 42.6% chance of winning
  • Oct. 8 vs. Tennessee — 67.7% chance of winning
  • Oct. 15 at Florida — 55.3% chance of winning
  • Oct. 22 vs. Ole Miss — 63.0% chance of winning
  • Nov. 5 vs. Alabama — 18.5% chance of winning
  • Nov. 12 at Arkansas — 54.2% chance of winning
  • Nov. 19 vs. UAB — 88.4% chance of winning
  • Nov. 26 at Texas A&M — 44.5% chance of winning

Going 9-3 would be a step in the right direction in Kelly’s first year with the program. But, some of those games are pretty close in terms of which team FPI projects to win.

We’ll see if the Tigers can come up with more victories in tight games than they have in the past couple of years.