Playoff Predictor: Clemson joins LSU in playoff if season ended today

Numbers can often be complicated and misleading. But facts are always facts. If the season ended today, Ohio State, Baylor, Clemson and LSU should be the four teams in the College Football Playoff. Based on the AP Poll, the Coaches Poll, Las Vegas predictions and the Fremeau Efficiency Index, let’s take an in-depth look at the top 4 teams in the country.

OHIO STATE

AP Poll: For the ninth consecutive week, the Buckeyes are sitting atop the AP Poll. Urban Meyer finally secured the quarterback position by naming J.T. Barrett the starter heading into last Saturday’s game. It paid major dividends. Barrett was nearly flawless against Rutgers, completing 14 of his 18 attempts for 223 yards and three touchdowns. While the AP voters had Baylor closing the margin on Ohio State last week, they didn’t flinch in the poll this week. Urban Meyer’s team received 1,466 votes which was 49 points better than No.2 Baylor.

USA Today Coaches Poll: The Coaches Poll (formerly used in the BCS) was on board with the Buckeyes again with another No. 1 ranking.

Vegas: The Buckeyes were favored by 23 points against Rutgers and obliterated the spread winning by 42. Ohio State had only covered the points in two of its seven previous games. Winning by a large margin only helped the Buckeyes cement themselves as the top team in the land. They are a 2/1 favorite to win the national title.

What do the numbers say? Ohio State is still low on the FEI at No. 12, which doesn’t seem to matter. The Buckeyes efficiency may improve with Barrett at QB and quality opponents looming on the schedule.

The Results: This week may be the most telling for Ohio State and its No. 1 ranking. While many believe that the Buckeyes have skated through the year and have not played like the best team in the country, there is little argument now. The AP Poll, the Coaches Poll and Vegas show the Buckeyes are the team to beat.

BAYLOR

AP Poll: Baylor is still clinging to the No. 2 spot in the AP Poll despite the loss of QB Seth Russell for the season with a neck injury. Voters can’t abandon the Bears just yet, especially considering that Art Briles’ system provides support to young, inexperienced quarterbacks. Still, this week’s AP Poll can be telling. Just 12 votes behind No.1 Ohio State last week, the Bears now trail by 49 points.

Coaches Poll: Clemson jumped Baylor in this week’s Coaches Poll, which may be more indicative of the Tigers’ strong play rather than a knock on the Bears. Baylor beat a 2-5 Iowa State squad, 45-27, while Clemson walloped Miami, 58-0.

Vegas: Baylor failed to cover the spread (36 points) against Iowa State. This was just the second time it hasn’t covered all season. One surprising number coming from Sin City is that the Bears, just like last week, remain 5/1 favorites to win the national championship. Clearly the oddsmakers don’t care too much about Russell’s injury.

What do the numbers say? Baylor remains the most efficient offense in the country, averaging 8.43 yards per play and 686.1 yards per game. Those are impressive numbers.

The Results: The results are tricky with Baylor. It’s obvious that both the AP and Coaches Poll are backing off a little bit now that Russell is out for the year, but Vegas remains steady. I put a lot of stock in Vegas, which rarely misses. I’m not convinced that the Bears are any better or worse with true freshman Jarrett Stidham is at the helm.

CLEMSON

AP Poll: The Tigers didn’t crack the top five last week, but there was no denying them this week. Clemson leaped three spots from No. 6 to earn a No. 3 ranking in the AP Poll. It was impossible for the voters to minimize the Tigers’ performance in Miami.

USA Today Coaches Poll: The Coaches Poll has Clemson behind Baylor at No. 3, a fair assessment. The Tigers may be the hottest team in the NCAA, and after handing the Hurricanes their worst loss in program history, they have caught the eyes of the coaches.

Vegas: While optimism is at an all-time high in Death Valley, Clemson is just a 12/1 favorite to win the national championship. The oddsmakers like Stanford, LSU, Alabama, Baylor and Ohio State more.

What the numbers say? Clemson is the No. 1-ranked team based on the FEI. The Tigers average 6.16 yards per play and 465.4 yards per game.

The results: The AP voters, coaches and FEI are high on the Tigers. And who could blame them? Vegas is a little more realistic. I still think the numbers are trending toward Clemson, so if I were a gambler, I’d hop on it now.

LSU

AP Poll: Last week, the AP voters had LSU ranked No. 5 behind TCU squad. Even then, I believed the Tigers would be in the CFB playoff. This week, Les Miles and his squad jumped one spot to No. 4. By the end of the season, LSU may be ranked even higher.

USA Today Coaches Poll: Just like the AP Poll, LSU moved up a spot to No. 4 in the Coaches Poll. The Tigers still have major tests against Alabama and Ole Miss, but they have a chance to finish the season at the top of the rankings.

Vegas: LSU dropped to 9/1 from 7-1 to win the national championship. Vegas must see something with the Tigers or other teams to make that adjustment.

What do the numbers say? Four is the magic number for LSU, which ranks No. 4 in the FEI, Coaches Poll and AP Poll.

The results: All of the numbers (other than the Vegas championship odds) are in favor of Les Miles’ bunch. The LSU at Alabama game on Nov. 7 is gaining hype by the minute, as if it needs it.

Sean Labar

Sean Labar is an SEC football contributor for Saturday Down South.