The Mississippi State Bulldogs are under new leadership for the first time in nearly a decade, and with that comes a high level of excitement and optimism. That optimism is exacerbated further due to what should be the most talented roster Starkville has seen in 20 years.

With that said, some questions remain. Here are some of the best and worst-case scenarios.

Dream scenarios

1. Joe Moorhead’s offense as good as advertised: Many celebrated the fact that State hired an offensive guru who ran a scheme similar to Dan Mullen’s, who wouldn’t need to overhaul the personnel to be immediately effective. Well, it’s not quite the same – More “11” personnel, more safety reads on RPOs, more downfield passes, etc. – but the Bulldogs still have a lot of talent on offense to make it work, and Moorhead is smart enough to adapt scheme to personnel and not vice versa.

If all goes according to plan, Moorhead’s scheme builds upon the strengths of last year’s offense – predicated on a very strong rushing attack led by Nick Fitzgerald, Aeris William and Kylin Hill – but manages to improve the passing attack to stretch the field. The new passing element forces defense to play honestly, which opens the playbook fully, which then makes the offense as a whole a balanced juggernaut that defenses struggle to plan for.

2. Nick Fitzgerald develops as passer: For Moorhead to take an already good offense to the next level, he needs to improve the aerial attack. To do this, Fitzgerald has to improve as a passer, not only to properly run Moorhead’s offense, but for the team to take the next step and reach Atlanta. In short, Fitzgerald must improve his accuracy to all three levels of the passing game to reach its desired efficiency.

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Last year, Fitzgerald regressed as a passer, completing 55.6 percent of his passes for 1,782 yards with a 15/11 TD to INT ratio, and he was least effective when throwing deep. Moorhead wants his QBs completing at least 65 percent of their attempts, many of which come from designed shots downfield to stretch the defense. In a perfect world, Fitzgerald takes to Moorhead’s tutelage, improves his mechanics, timing and touch, and becomes as effective of a passer as he is a runner.

3. Defense adjusts to new coordinator and scheme (again): Astonishingly, the Bulldogs are on their fifth defensive coordinator in as many years. That’s certainly less than ideal, as continuity among staff and scheme were one of the key reasons for the offense’s recent success. With that said, they somehow manage to make it work, and they were downright dominant last year, finishing 10th nationally with 306.3 yards allowed per game.

Under new coordinator Bob Shoop, they’ll be running more 4-3 and 4-2-5 looks as opposed to 3-4, and they certainly have the horses to make it work. Ideally, the Bulldogs again manage to not only adjust to a new coordinator and scheme, but thrive in it. Montez Sweat, Jeffery Simmons, Gerri Green and Mark McLaurin compete for All-American honors.

4. Greg Eiland successfully replaces Martinas Rankin: The offensive line was solid last year and it returns four of the five starters in 2018, which obviously bodes well. However, the one spot where they’ll be breaking in a new starter is arguably the most important: left tackle, as they need to replace All-SEC pick Martinas Rankin, who was recently a third-round draft choice. Replacing him will be sophomore Greg Eiland, who already possesses an NFL-caliber frame at 6-8, 335.

The good thing is, Eiland played some LT last year when Rankin went down against Auburn, and he played well during that 4-game stretch. He has the physical tools; he just needs more time and reps to take the next step in his development, now under the guidance of well-respected OL coach Marcus Johnson. In a perfect world, Eiland not only fills Rankin’s shoes capably, but plays even better than his predecessor.

5. Playmakers emerge at WR: One reason the passing game dipped last year was due in part to a weak receiving corps. The leading receiver wound up being Jesse Jackson, who finished with just 27 receptions for 276 yards (and no TDs). That simply won’t work this year if the Bulldogs are going to progress in the new scheme.

The Bulldogs absolutely need someone become a go-to playmaker. There’s reason for optimism with 4 of the top 6 pass catchers returning, and incoming 4-star signees Stephen Guidry and Devonta Jason are expected to make early contributions, as well. Ideally, Malik Dear becomes a viable threat in the slot, Jackson is a solid possession wideout and Guidry becomes a dangerous deep threat, while Jason, Deddrick Thomas and Austin Williams provide quality depth.

Disaster scenarios

1. Fitzgerald can’t run Moorhead’s offense: As we pointed out earlier, Moorhead’s offense requires some semblance of a vertical passing game to run on all cylinders, and he needs his QB to be accurate and take care of the ball. As we also pointed out earlier, Fitzgerald’s biggest weakness as a passer has been his accuracy, especially downfield.

Worst-case scenario is that Fitzgerald simply can’t run the offense as effectively as Moorhead would like, and the Bulldogs again struggle to move the ball through the air. This, in turn, limits the playbook but also allows defenses to cram the box because they know they don’t have to worry about the pass.

2. Nobody steps up at WR: There is reason for optimism that the receiving corps will be better this year, but until it’s proven on the field, the uncertainty remains. There is some talent there — especially among the fresh faces – but it’s unproven talent that is learning a new scheme with new coaches.

The new offense is very friendly to receivers, and I think it would take a plethora of injuries to replicate the lack of success in last year’s receiving unit, but if that’s the case it will be tough for the offense to take the next step. The disaster scenario is that for the second year in a row, no one steps up on the outside, leaving Fitzgerald with nothing to work with as he tries to progress.

3. Lose to Auburn, Alabama and Ole Miss (again): Obviously you can make the case that every game is a “must-win.” but the Bulldogs will be favored in probably all but two — Alabama and Auburn, the two big hurdles State must cross to get to Atlanta. They’ll catch the Tigers after what could be an emotional week against former coach Dan Mullen and the Florida Gators and they play on the road against the Tide in early November.

If the Bulldogs are going to start competing for titles like Moorhead has suggested and run the neighborhood, they have to go through the goliaths next door. Finally, they have to beat Ole Miss, which they play on the road to end the season. The rivalry has reached an unhealthy level of toxicity, and vitriol aside, it’s a game that tends to set the tone for the offseason, largely in recruiting, making it desperately important.

4. Injuries pile up at LB: There are few areas of weakness on the roster – especially on defense – but one area that could present some problems is at linebacker, which is a relatively thin unit. There’s enough talent there with Leo Lewis, Erroll Thompson and Willie Gay, but there’s not a whole lot of quality depth.

Worst-case scenario is a combination of them not playing up to the potential, struggling to adapt to new scheme, or even worse, injuries piling up and there aren’t enough capable reserves to replace the lost production.

5. New coaching staff can’t get team to buy-in: The No. 1 hurdle a new coach must face – and arguably the most important – is getting the players to buy-in. These players came to State to play for different coaches, running a different scheme and all of a sudden, there’s a new sheriff in town with a new staff, one they don’t have any relationship with. Developing those relationships, laying a new foundation and getting everyone on board with both feet in the boat is immensely important.

I don’t have any reason to think Moorhead and his staff will have much of a problem with this. He’s a very well-respected coach and has put together a terrific staff, and all accounts out of spring are that the players are comfortable under the new leadership. However, the disaster scenario is that there’s a fractured core under the surface, guys aren’t totally sold on the new staff, and considering the high expectations, any upset losses cause this frustration to build and eventually result in a Vesuvian-level eruption.