17-of-28 passing for 223 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception.

That’s what it will take for Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott to beat Alabama on Saturday at Davis Wade Stadium. On the ground, he’ll have to contribute 10 carries for an additional 27 yards — don’t get sacked more than twice, either.

Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban has lost just 18 times since coming to Tuscaloosa in 2007, and those are the average numbers his defense has surrendered to the victor at the game’s most important position.

Some elite QBs have Big Al’s trunk hanging on a wall, including four who became first-round picks in the NFL draft: Georgia’s Matthew Stafford (2007), Florida’s Tim Tebow (2008), Auburn’s Cam Newton (2010) and Texas A&M’s Johnny Manziel (2012). Both Stafford and Newton ended up being the No. 1 selection overall — Tebow, Newton and Manziel all won the Heisman Trophy.

However, this fraternity has also initiated some forgotten-about passers like Brandon Cox of Auburn (2007), Kinsmon Lancaster of Louisiana-Monroe (2007), Wesley Carroll of Mississippi State (2007) and Brian Johnson of Utah (2008).

Prescott is 0-1 vs. the resident kings of the SEC West, as a year ago he brought the No. 1 team in the country — prior to 2014, the Bulldogs had never topped the rankings — to Bryant-Denny Stadium but fell 25-20 to then-No. 4 ‘Bama. While he completed 27-of-48 passes for 290 yards and added 87 more on 22 rushes, his 2 TDs were offset by 3 INTs. A 19-0 second-quarter deficit proved to be too much to overcome.

Through nine games in 2015, Prescott averages 22-of-33 passing for 261 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs, and then as a rusher he adds 46 yards and a score on 10 attempts.

Based on the numbers, Prescott doesn’t necessarily need to have the game of his life with 300-plus yards passing and triple digits on the ground — he’s surely capable of that, though. If the 6-foot-2, 230-pounder simply replicates what he’s done thus far, the Bulldogs stand a chance to upset the Tide and throw a grenade on the division in the process.

Let’s take a closer look at the passing stats in those 18 Alabama losses the past eight-plus seasons and devise a game plan for Hail State coach Dan Mullen accordingly.

17 completions

The 32 passes that Oklahoma’s Trevor Knight connected on in 2013 prove to be the outlier on the list, as the aforementioned Carroll hit his target on just 9 throws in 2007 and yet still emerged a winner.

What’s more important is that the 17 completions have averaged 13.1 yards each, meaning it’s not dinking and dunking to checkdown options out of the backfield — some chunk plays are upping that average. While the Crimson Tide have mass produced pro-ready defensive backs the past decade, a smart quarterback with an accurate arm can recognize potential mismatches and take advantage of favorable coverage.

Prescott is averaging 11.8 yards per completion against inferior defenses, so top receiver De’Runnya Wilson and his 17 yards per catch better come to play.

28 attempts

Knight’s 44 passes are tied atop the list with LSU’s Matt Flynn in 2007, although Newton and South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia (2010) took to the air only 20 times each and managed to win the game.

Similar to the yards-per-completion statistic above, the 8 yards per attempt averaged by those 18 winners is a very respectable number, as that’s about a yard more than the national average this season. ‘Bama is first in the SEC — and tied for seventh in the country — allowing a paltry 5.6 yards per attempt.

It’s also safe to assume that a relatively low number like 28 pass attempts means opponents were balanced offensively and had success running the football, as Prescott learned this past season he can’t expect to chuck and duck his way to victory.

10 carries, 27 yards

What we keep hearing is that mobile passers from spread-option systems are Kryptonite to Saban’s defense, but the numbers don’t necessarily support that argument.

Sure, Manziel scrambled around for 92 yards in what became his Heisman moment, but Cox, Lancaster, Carroll and Johnson all defeated the Tide with negative rushing yards on the day. Those four were only sacked a total of 7 times, so it’s not like a plethora of successful QB keepers were negated statistically by big sack numbers.

The 10 attempts tell a better story than the 27 yards, so Prescott can infer that keeping the Alabama defense honest with his legs from time to time and moving the chains by himself occasionally — as opposed to having to double as a running back — may be enough.

Now go do that voodoo that you do so well

Garcia, who wrapped up his Gamecocks career in 2011 and is now a contributor to Saturday Down South, slayed the elephant by being who he’s always been.

“I remember going in just like any other game,” he said. “I’m a very emotional, high-energy guy out on the field, so when I say I went into the game just like any other game, I was cranked the hell up. Everyone always talks about what I did differently than any other game, and the truth is I didn’t do a damn thing differently. I took my drops and fired the ball where I thought it should go.”

Garcia got a lot of credit for the win, and rightly so since his 85-percent completion rate that day is by far the best on the list, but he also had a partner in crime lined up behind him.

“We ran the ball a lot more effectively than people remember with Marcus Lattimore (23 carries, 93 yards, 2 touchdowns) as well,” he said.

Unlike Garcia, Prescott doesn’t have an all-conference talent at running back to alleviate some of the pressure, as his 418 yards rushing this season are almost twice as much as anyone else on Mississippi State’s roster.

“Mullen is one of the better offensive minds in college football,” said Garcia, “so I expect him to have a good game plan to get Prescott going early and often.”

Downfield completions. Minimal attempts. Run sparingly but smartly. Touchdowns, not field goals. No more than one turnover.

Easier said than done for Prescott, of course, but numbers never lie.