In 2021, two coaches removed from Dan Mullen, the Mississippi State fan base could stand to employ more of their famously reasonable expectations and the coaching staff might consider preaching patience.

No one who gets paid to have college football opinions expects the Bulldogs to compete for a trip to Atlanta and the SEC championship in 2021. That doesn’t mean they won’t exceed national expectations in Mike Leach’s second year.

That said, I can’t, with a straight face, write that 10-2 is possible. It isn’t. The program is undergoing a big shift and unlike the mega programs, it will take time.

So, how high or low could they really go?

Here are 3 best-case and worst-case scenarios for the 2021 MSU squad.

Nightmare scenario: Mike Leach retires amid a poor performance

Unlikely.

In this scenario, the record does not matter. It could be a 1-6 start; it could be a 4-8 season. If Leach, for whatever reason, no longer feels he can get the job done at MSU or want to coach football at all, the program could tailspin.

In 1988, Leach coached community college football in the not-fun part of the SoCal desert, then in 1989, he coached in freakin’ Finland. The man loves coaching football.

But say the fan base starts to expect similar results to the 2014-15 glory years. And say his best players are getting Mississippi-famous making money selling their NIL, and say he just feels tired. Can’t you see him retiring back to the mountains of Wyoming?

ESPN ranked Mississippi State 110 out of 130 in their program stability rankings which are based on coaching staff turnover, roster turnover, and success against expectations.

Having a coach quit after just 2 seasons could undo everything Dan Mullen built.

Pipe dream scenario: 9-3, Outback Bowl

Theoretically possible.

Even with Dak Prescott at QB and NFLers all over the field, MSU never beat Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU in the same season. This year, the Bulldogs get all 3 teams at Davis Wade Stadium. If they can pull off two of those wins — one against Ole Miss and the other against whomever —  there’s a path to 9-3, counting losses to Texas A&M and Auburn.

Mississippi State, like clockwork, will have a handful of players that most fans and pundits won’t mention in conversation, but of whom the NFL is very much aware.

This year those guys are OL Charles Cross and DB Martin Emerson. Both will have chances to start early on in their careers in the NFL.

Mississippi State also has a confidence-building schedule. This can be a high-risk, high-reward scenario. But games against always-annoying NC State and pesky Memphis are a perfect swag ramp to the first conference game on Sept. 25 when LSU visits.

Finally, the 2021 cross-division rotational game is at Vanderbilt, probably the worst team in the SEC. Even though it’s just one game, it matters for the Bulldogs to take wins where they come.

Should Leach and company pull this off, the hype train will be off and running toward an appearance in the Outback Bowl against whichever Big Ten team gets smashed by Ohio State and Penn State; my guess is Michigan.

Rock-bottom scenario: 2-10, no SEC wins

Unlikely.

Mississippi State fans would be right to question the Mike Leach approach if they failed to win an SEC game while also falling to NC State and Memphis.

Part of being a vulnerable or rebuilding program is that other teams look at you as a possible big win for them, too. If you’re Vanderbilt looking at your schedule heading into this season, Mississippi State is one you’ve got circled. The same could be said of Memphis and Kentucky. Obviously Ole Miss has this game circled. This is to say nothing of the fact the NC State has an early opportunity to punch the SEC right in the mouth.

Even if this is how it goes, Bulldogs fans ought to stay the course. This kind of offense, along with Ole Miss, will take time to grow in the SEC. Leach has won, and disrupted everything, in the Big 12 and the Pac-12, but it took time.

This-is-working scenario: Offensive life

Possible.

Proof that the high-flying offense is working and proof that the players are syncing up with coaching would make the record irrelevant here.

If fans don’t see their squad make it to the postseason, but they see an infuriated Nick Saban after giving up 40 or a befuddled Lane Kiffin after hanging 50 on Ole Miss, there is reason to celebrate.

The thing that makes Mississippi State a scary place for Leach is that unlike at Washington State or Texas Tech, MSU has NFL-caliber defenders year-in and year-out. Whereas those previous Leach programs didn’t have defensive talent such as Darius Slay, Benardrick McKinney, Chris Jones, etc.

To prove that this is working, the offense needs to figure it out. In 2020, the Bulldogs managed 2 touchdowns or fewer in 6 SEC games, including being shut out against Alabama and mustering just 2 points against Kentucky.

This-isn’t-working scenario: Offensive death

Possible.

For years, the SEC hung its hat on how much better the teams were defensively compared with teams from other conferences. Those fan bases, usually Texan in nature, would point out that this was just because SEC schools didn’t have to face high-flying offenses.

With Alabama’s offensive revolution, Lane Kiffin’s emergence in the division, and Mike Leach coming to town, that isn’t true.

Understandably, Alabama is in its own category of recruiting and coaching prowess. However, the sobering fact for State fans ought to be that Kiffin’s Rebels were able to figure it out immediately, dropping big numbers on multiple opponents in 2020.

Should MSU not be able to average more than 25 points per SEC game in 2021, it could be time to panic in Starkville.

Ruin-their-year scenario: Upsetting a Playoff-hopeful team

Likely.

Egg Bowl aside, if a team with Playoff aspirations is at home watching the SEC Championship because they have a loss to Mississippi State, the Bulldogs can rejoice.

Playing spoiler is only a silver lining in most circumstances. However, for this squad, the meaning is a bit deeper.

Should Mississippi State waltz into Texas and knock off a top-5 Aggies team, the message is clear — the Bulldogs are relevant again. That kind of win leaves recruits thinking, “If they only had me, they’d be a 10-win team,” which is right where you want to be heading into 2022.

The likely candidate feels like Texas A&M. The Aggies still have the skeleton of their Big 12 roots defensively. Secondly, the Bulldogs come to town right between the Southwestern Classic against Arkansas in Dallas and a huge game at home against Alabama.