SDS Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for Mississippi State in 2018
The time has come for me to put my money where my mouth is.
If there’s one hill that I’m dying on, it’s that I believe in Mississippi State in 2018. I would have believed in the Bulldogs had Dan Mullen stayed in Starkville, but I believe in them even more now that Joe Moorhead is in Starkville.
Hence, my all-in attitude.
Before we dig into this, let’s not forget that this team won 9 games last year. It returns more production than any SEC team, including a defense that held Lamar Jackson to 42 percent passing and 4 interceptions in his final college game. It also returns third-year starter Nick Fitzgerald, who is likely going to set the SEC record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback.
Yes, I’m high on Mississippi State. I’d argue you won’t find many people who are higher on the Bulldogs than I am.
Let me explain.
2017 record: 8-4 (4-4)
Moor cowbell
My favorite SEC hire of the offseason was Moorhead to MSU. I liked it even more than Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M. That’s how much confidence I have in Moorhead’s offensive prowess. It will, in my opinion, easily be the most bang for the buck hire of any in college football.

Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
I’ve raved about Moorhead’s personality and why I think his confident demeanor is perfect for the situation he walked into. But if Moorhead couldn’t coach up an offense, it’d all be for naught. Ask offensive-minded James Franklin about Moorhead’s ability to do that.
Or instead, compare Franklin’s 2 seasons with Moorhead vs. the 2 without him at Penn State:
- Without Moorhead (2014-15)
- 14-12 (6-10 vs. Big Ten)
- 6th place in Big Ten East, 4th place in Big Ten East
- Unranked both years
- 0 wins vs. ranked opponents
- No. 110, No. 101 in scoring offense
- With Moorhead (2016-17)
- 22-5 (15-3 vs. Big Ten)
- 1st place in Big Ten East (won Big Ten Championship), 2nd place in Big Ten East
- No. 7 and No. 8 in Associated Press poll
- 4 wins vs. ranked opponents
- No. 21, No. 7 in scoring offense
Starting to see my point? That’s why I believe James Franklin wouldn’t still be at Penn State if not for Moorhead’s presence. Now, Franklin has a consistent top-10 program. In fact, I’m under the impression that there are loads of cash at the bottom of these gift baskets Franklin sends Moorhead:
Received a preseason care package from @coachjfranklin & @PennStateFball this morning! Appreciate the kind gesture! Here’s to a safe & productive fall camp for both of our teams!#HailState#WeAre pic.twitter.com/lLhEQPCrPt
— Coach Joe Moorhead (@BallCoachJoeMo) August 3, 2018
By the way, how in the world am I verified and Moorhead isn’t? That’s perhaps my biggest gripe as it relates to Moorhead.
Oh well. He’ll be a household name by season’s end.
The personnel is there
I’m sure that when Moorhead was weighing his options about coming to Starkville, he had a bit of a realization. Like, holy cow, this team is built to win immediately. He wasn’t a new coach stepping into a rebuild. He was a new coach stepping into a program that was ready to have a special season.
I love that immediately after getting the job, Moorhead actually texted Fitzgerald that “he’d better clear a spot on his mantel for his Heisman Trophy.” Fitzgerald is going to thrive under Moorhead’s tutelage. They’re going to open up the passing game for him to take more shots downfield, and they’re also going to be more creative with getting skill players involved out of the backfield.
Months ago, I actually wrote why Aeris Williams would benefit the most from Moorhead’s arrival. Everyone knows about the job Moorhead did with Saquon Barkley, but people might forget that he developed Fordham running back Chase Edmonds so well that he was a fourth-round pick in the 2018 NFL draft. Out of Fordham. Fordham.
Williams is a perfect fit to get involved in the passing game out of the backfield, as is the talented Kylin Hill. Neither has to be as freakish as Barkley to be effective, especially behind an offensive line that returns 4 of 5 starters.
The real hurdle for MSU to overcome is the deep passing game. Not only coaching Fitzgerald up, but finding the deep targets. Moorhead has tweaked his throwing motion to help with that. Perhaps a combination of Deddrick Thomas attracting attention from the slot with Austin Williams (someone Moorhead has been quite high on) and Jesse Jackson as the downfield threats will be the answer.
Whatever the case, I believe the pieces are there for Moorhead to turn MSU into Penn State South (at least offensively).
Don’t forget about that defense
I’ll be honest. If MSU had just an average defense, I wouldn’t be calling for 10 wins. I do think that there are a couple games (Auburn, LSU), in which the offense could struggle, and it’s the defense that does the heavy lifting in a 21-17 game. Last year showed why this unit is more than capable of doing that. A group that finished 10th in total defense returns a whopping 80 percent of its production. That’s significant.
And yes, I understand replacing Todd Grantham with Bob Shoop has its question marks, but I’m not sure if people realize nationally just how much talent this unit returns. You already know about the All-America potential of Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat on the defensive line, but the defense is more than just a pair of elite pass-rushers.
Gerri Green and Mark McLaurin are also All-American candidates who will be playing on Sundays next year, and Willie Gay Jr. and Erroll Thompson have all sorts of breakout potential in the middle of the MSU defense.
For a unit that’s used to making adjustments — this is the Bulldogs’ fifth defensive coordinator in as many years — I wouldn’t worry about making that switch. This is about them finally having the playmakers across the defense to hang with the big boys in the SEC.

Credit: Melina Vastola-USA TODAY Sports
Game-by-Game predictions
Week 1: vs. Stephen F. Austin (W)
I don’t think Stephen F. Austin would have stayed on the field with MSU under normal circumstances. Having its head coach resign in August certainly didn’t change my mind on that.
Week 2: at Kansas State (L)
Consider this the “working out the kinks” game that calms some of the buzz in Starkville. In the first road game of the year, MSU can’t quite get over the hump. Alex Barnes has a big day out of the Kansas State backfield, which forces the Bulldogs to rely on their developing passing game more than they hoped to. Just like Moorhead’s offense took a month for Penn State players to grasp, the learning curve is evident in Manhattan.
Week 3: vs. Louisiana (W)
Billy Napier and the Ragin’ Cajuns have to travel to face Alabama and MSU in September. That won’t be fun. An angry MSU team bounces back in a big way.
Week 4: at Kentucky (W)
History doesn’t win games, but 8 wins in the past 9 years probably isn’t a coincidence. MSU should be able to dominate 1-dimensional offenses, which I expect Kentucky to have in the early part of the season.
Week 5: vs. Florida (W)
Ah, Mullen’s return. Man, there’s going to be sooooooo much cowbell in Starkville that night. In fact, I wonder what the world record is for cowbell noise. The Bulldogs will be all sorts of fired up to try and shut down Mullen’s new team. This game could get chippy early, but I expect MSU’s defense to contain Florida’s revamped offense and win by a couple scores.
Week 6: vs. Auburn (W)
You’re right. Last year was ugly. Getting stomped 49-10 at Jordan-Hare wasn’t the best look for an MSU program that was trying to show it was a legitimate top-15 team. Keep in mind, though, that was the latter half of a 2-week stretch in which the Bulldogs traveled to Georgia and to Auburn. Absurd. This is the game where Moorhead will really show how elite of an offensive mind he is. He out-schemes Gus Malzahn, whose Auburn teams are .500 in games away from Jordan-Hare, and suddenly, all that preseason buzz is back in Starkville after a 3-0 start to SEC play.
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: at LSU (W)
Again, Moorhead earns his paycheck. Coming off a bye, MSU gets to face an LSU team that will be a week removed from facing Georgia (and beating Georgia). I think this sets up well for MSU to pull out a win in Baton Rouge. Sure, it’ll be closer than last year’s 37-7 drubbing in Starkville, but Fitzgerald makes a key play late and gets arguably the biggest road win of his career.
Week 9: vs. Texas A&M (W)
I wouldn’t be surprised if MSU played at home as well as Auburn did last year. I don’t think this game is any exception. Big-time performances from Hill and Williams prevent MSU from a letdown following the big LSU win and MSU stays unbeaten in conference play before the all-important Alabama game. By the way, this also clinches MSU’s second winning season in the SEC in the 21st century.
Week 10: vs. Louisiana Tech (W)
I think MSU could’ve put up 80 points in Louisiana Tech last year. And strangely, that game was played in Ruston, La. This game, played in Starkville, might be even uglier than 57-21.
Week 11: at Alabama (L)
The win streak ends in Tuscaloosa. In what will wind up being an SEC West championship, this will have no shortage of hype. But ultimately, the Tide simply have too much talent in the front seven for MSU. The Bulldogs struggle to establish the balance that opened up their offense all season, and Alabama keeps control of its own fate to play in Atlanta.
Week 12: vs. Arkansas (W)
Chad Morris walked into a situation without the ideal personnel to run his system, whereas Moorhead did. Game, set, match MSU.
Week 13: at Ole Miss (W)
This is the ultimate revenge game for MSU after how much of a nightmare last year’s Egg Bowl was. This year, Fitzgerald runs all over Ole Miss in final regular season game and quiets what’s sure to be a raucous crowd in Oxford. I think we see both offenses light up the scoreboard. It wouldn’t be surprising to see both squads get into the 40s, but this time, MSU hoists the Golden Egg Trophy.
2018 projection: 10-2 (7-1)
Final Standings: 2nd in SEC West

Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
#HailState
I don’t think it’s fair to say that I’m “jumping” on the MSU bandwagon by predicting 10 wins. I’ve been saying that since March. If anything, I’m driving the bandwagon and picking people up.
When I first made that prediction, many scoffed at the idea of a program with 1 winning season in the SEC in the 21st century having that kind of year. But given the talent coming back and the new coaching staff coming in, I’m all in on this being a historic year for the Bulldogs.
Are they perfect? Of course not. A Moorhead offense that’s predicated on receivers making big plays downfield still has to prove that it can do just that. A defense loaded with talent still has to prove it can dominate without Grantham. An SEC West that hasn’t been kind to MSU is something it still has to overcome.
But yeah, I’m ready to see just how high Moorhead’s squad can fly in 2018.
PREVIOUSLY IN SDS CRYSTAL BALL SERIES
SEC WEST
Stephen F. Austin: W
@ Kansas State: W (I get the whole working out the kinks thing, but K-State lost to Vandy last year. That’s not to say they couldn’t be better this year though. We could very well lose, but I think we pull away in the end and win a close one.)
Louisiana: W
@ Kentucky: W (might be somewhat close for a while. Even against Kentucky’s worst teams, we typically never blow them out in Lexington.)
Florida: W
Auburn: L
@ LSU: L
Texas A&M: W
LA Tech: W
@ Alabama: L
Arkansas: W
@ Ole Miss: W (I don’t think we see a blowout like in 2016, but the Rebs did give us plenty of bulletin board material last year aside from just taking the Egg. Fitzgerald’s injury as well as D.K. Metcalf dog-pissing in the endzone and planting the flag midfield after the game are things I’m sure our players will be fired up about. I do expect Ole Miss’ offense to roll too though. I love a good shootout.)
9-3(5-3 in SEC play)
We will beat either LSU or Auburn IMO. Don’t know about getting both of them.
I agree with the rest of your post.
It is possible we beat one of them. I’d lean more towards Auburn just because it’s at home, and Gus tends to struggle on the road against ranked competition a lot.
I’m hoping Auburn because I have to be around a bunch of Barn fans that day.
I hope it’s Auburn too just because we owe them for these past 2 years of embarrassment. It’s almost like all the magic we had against them left with Dak. Let’s hope we get some of that back this year.
Give me the same record but switch Kansas State and Auburn.
Dan Mullen had 1 ten win season at Mississippi State so it’s hard believe that a new coaching staff would be able to come in and win 10 games.. with that being said I do think this team is capable of getting to 10 but 8 is more likely with losses to K-State (11 am kickoff in the road), Auburn, Alabama and LSU. Mississippi State doesn’t have a Barkley type of running back that Moorhead had at Penn State and Fitzgerald is not the most accurate passer..
I do see your point about not having a RB that’s on the same level Barkley was. Aeris is good but not that good. The new coaching staff doesn’t concern me though. Remember, y’all had a new coaching staff when Gus arrived in 2013, and he took y’all to the title game. Sometimes it works out just fine for new coaches if they inherit a loaded team.
I get the point about 2013 and Gus but what have we done since then besides last year? People started to catch on more and how to defend.. 2013 was just the perfect (lucky too) season and it took everyone off guard with Marshall and Mason.
While it is true that Gus’ first season on the plains remains his best, I think Moorhead stepped into this job at the right time. Will he maintain any of the success we may have this season and stay consistent? Only time will tell. I’m optimistic about this year though. I still think 9 wins is realistic, and that wouldn’t be a bad season at all. Maybe this year we’ll actually give y’all somewhat of a game.
Don’t sleep on Kylin Hill. He will get more reps than Aeris. Kylin Hill will be one of the top running backs in the SEC this year. This coming from a Bama fan
To be a home state recruit from like 25 miles down the road, I was pleasantly surprised by Kylin Hill. He is a monster on the field. I hope he can just improve every year, which would bode well for our running game. Not sure if we will see more of him than Aeris, but even at same snap reps, I would say Kylin will have the more profitable season.
Malzahn caught lightning in a bottle and rode it to an appearance in the national championship game in 2013. The amount of luck Auburn experienced that season is astounding. Accordingly, I could caution looking at 2013 Auburn as a predictor for what a first year coach can do.
A curacy can be taught by Workin on his mechanics. He was a wide receiver in high school up until his senior year. They ran a triple option offense at his high school. I think he attempted 53 passes. He just needs a coach that will sit him down and teach him how to be a QB. Mullen wanted a glorified RB behind center that could bash their head into a wall all game
Driving the bandwagon WHILE INTOXICATED maybe. Absolute best case, MSU goes 3-2 during the 5 game stretch of conference play. They lose at LSU. Get an emotional win over Mullen at home. Probably split the home games (Auburn / TAMU). And I’m putting a big fat “L” next to that road trip to Lexington. Ba-Ba-Ba-Benny racks up 150+ yds and it’s a long quiet bus ride home back to Starkville.
8-4 in Moorhead’s debut … and even that may be a stretch.
“Ba-Ba-Ba-Benny” is my new favorite nickname in CFB :-D
Somebody needs to play that after a long run at Kroger Field; and after the lyric, “Ba-Ba-Ba-Benny and The Jets,” the entire crowd screams as one, “BENNAY!”
I would cheer for Kentucky just to see that.
You have no idea what you are talking about…….Plus you’re a Vandy fan and I wouldnt expect you to with that logo.
Robz, that’s real mature. Don’t let door hit you on the way out.
And calling someone intoxicated because you don’t agree with their opinion is being mature? Come on, Sue.
I think the Auburn and LSU games will be toss-ups and I’m really not sure what to make of A&M yet, but MSU should leave Lexington with a win. You have to play the game and when you do you could lose, but MSU should beat the Kats big day or not from Ba-Ba-Ba-Benny.
Maroon, my reference to being intoxicated is hyperbole. Like when someone says something off the wall, some people might respond with “are you drunk”? It’s not a literal question or accusation – we know they’re not actually drunk … it’s a way to express surprise and disbelief at what the other person said.
I’m thick skinned and welcome anyone that wants to challenge my opinion. What i find immature are those who can’t form an argument rooted in fact (or even opinion) and instead take the lazy way out by denegrating my team affiliation. As if the number of wins my team is somehow connected to my football acumen.
Anyone that doesn’t get this is … well, should grow up – hence my earlier sarcastic reply to Mr. Robz.
Seriously a Vandy fan is gonna try to shade a football team?
Why was MSU good last year? One group of statistics stands out to me. All the ones surrounding possession. 1st in 3rd down conversion on both sides of the ball. 1st in time of possession. I am highly concerned that Moorhead’s offense won’t hold the ball like Mullen’s did. All of our good seasons under Mullen included a good time of possession.
In another article Fitz or JoMo commented about seeing more chunk plays and fewer 10-14 play drives. Nothing wrong with 10-14 play drives that result in TD’s as they tend to break the will of the opponent. Chunk plays are good when they are there, but give me a long, sustained, clock-eating drive for a TD any day assuming you aren’t playing from behind.
We ran the second fewest plays on defense all season last year. We just held the ball a long time, and then made them give it back to us.
Pretty obvious that state won’t lead I TOP. Moorhead’s not gonna run the ball 30+ times/game
I think they will be an 8 win team. Very similar to last year. Fitzgerald is easily beaten by defenses that sell out to stop the run, as long as you have the help over the top. We caught a few breaks with TO’s last year and our offense thankfully put up a lot of points to help us win in Starkville. I see a similar game playing out this year.
You caught a break in Fitz going out of that game last year on a freak play. If he doesn’t go out in the first quarter, you guys lose by two TD’s or more. After getting settled down by the coaches at halftime, KT as a true freshman in his first significant playing time almost rallied the team back to win the game. That said, you very well could be right about 8 wins. LSU, Auburn, and A&M seem to be toss-ups to me right now, so I could see 8 or as many as 11 with some breaks. Will be an interesting season. Can’t start soon enough.
That’s a big “what if” there, buddy. We were doing very well against Fitzgerald before the injury. He is a great runner, but not a QB that’s going to consistently torch you through the air. We took our foot off the gas after going up several TD’s…the end isn’t even remotely close if we keep on the pressure and DK doesn’t get that 15 yard penalty.
It is an if, but a pretty safe one. You “did very well” against Fitz for about 6 or 7 plays before he went out. Wow. And your assertion that they “took their foot off the gas” is as big an IF as mine. What I saw was State’s defense finally getting after Ta’amu making him run for his life resulting in throw-aways and int’s. You boys built a lead on two busted coverage pass plays and a long run. Once States D recovered from the shock of seeing Fitz’s foot pointed the wrong way they dominated your offense and a true freshman QB with almost no snaps on the year brought the team back and almost snatched a win away from you. I’m sure I’ll see it my way and you’ll continue to see it your way, but no Ole Miss fan who knows anything about football could walk away happy with the way your team played in the 2nd half.
We played with our backup as well…
I think 8 wins is a worst case scenario in all honesty but entirely possible. Jimbo could very well catch us off guard when the Aggies come to town, or maybe we do underestimate Bill Snyder’s team and take a loss in Manhattan. And I think we underestimated a talented team in y’all back in November. This Egg Bowl might actually be more heated than it was last year. Should be a good game nonetheless.
I honestly doubt it’s anything like the past few years. With Mullet gone, this rivalry will go back to a normal, somewhat healthy in-state bragging rights game. That’s a breath of fresh air after how venomous it’s been.
There are guys that will remember how the um thugs acted last year. The bad blood ain’t over yet. Plan on seeing quite a few fins up this year as Ta’amu picks himself up off the field and have your camera ready to document the MSU flag planting ceremony at midfield. I don’t think any of our guys will be classless enough to try and mimic DK. We’ll just let the real Bully take care of that one.
Fitz owns vaught Hemingway. Last time he played there was 258 rushing yards. Football is a game of momentum. When Fitz went down, MO put on a red and blue jersey. A true freshman backup only lost by 3 points. Fitz won’t be the only source of offense that state has, this year. State returns 80% of the production from a top 10 defense. Ole sissy defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed
I like the predictions. Auburn makes me a tiny bit nervous but as you said, they just don’t look like the same team away from Jordan-Hare. LSU makes me a little more nervous because it’s in Red Stick. Even with Dak’s best team, the team that reached #1 for a while, even when we dominated them, the Tigers came back and almost tied the game at the end.
Ole Miss scares me the most because of one guy: A.J. Brown.
Don’t go getting all confident you will beat Auburn. We destroyed you under the cowbells 2 years ago and we weren’t even a great team.
Beating Auburn, but losing to a piss-poor Kansas State team. That makes a lot of sense. Miss State should be able to line up and just shove K-State around at both lines of scrimmage.
I definitely hope so. Coming into the season with a loss to a team that is subpar in a lot of ways could easily crush morale and determination. Just hope if we do lose, which I see as unlikely, that it won’t affect the team’s confidence, morale, and determination to win the rest of the season.
15-0
lol
LMAO!!!!! Conner get real!
How many times have you beaten us without Manziel?
lol The SEC series is tied 3-3. He’s some better questions. How many times will we beat ya’ll without a bonehead coach? How many times will ya’ll beat us with a first time head coach? How long do you think that inferior recruiting will last?
We knew Mullen was better than Sumlin but is moorehead better than Jimbo Fisher? hahahahaha
aTm and Miss State have met 11 times, so everything you typed is nonsense. We have a total lead at 6-5 and have 3 of the last 4.
You missing the “SEC series is tied 3-3” line is as sad as Mullen leaving state.
What are you smoking? You’ve won 3 of the last 4? lol Dude pulled an arbitrary number out of his butt when we’ve played 6 times since joining the SEC.
2012- 38-13. Ags
2013-51-41. Ags
2014-48-31. State
2015-30-17. Ags
2016-35-28. State
2017-35-17. State
That’s 3-3 when it matters….. As far as the all-time series that ya’ll just took the lead last year, congrats. My argument was not on the overall record, it was about A&M and State having less talent since the Ags joined the SEC. These are all facts you can lookup. If state had anywhere near the amount of talent or resources A&M has, Mullen would still be the head coach. But hey, keep thinking Jimbo wont be miles above Joe Moorehead. lol